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Andy Constan
@dampedspring
My surprise list for 2024 Happy New Year (reposted)
1. Fed will hike more than it will cut in 2024
2. Oil will trade above 90
3. DXY will trade below 100
4. Bitcoin spot ETF will not happen in 2024
5. Gold will trade below 1700
6. No bank with market cap above 50BN will fail and be taken over by the FDIC
7. China Equities will outperform all G7 equities
8. YoY US CPI measure for all of 2024 will exceed 2023 year end level
9. Mag 7 will again outperform SPX 493
10. There will be no US Credit Event
11:32 AM · Dec 28, 2023
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183.7K
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R2K at 2288 after yet another in a multi-decade underperformance.
up 11% in 2024, which is a solid year but nothing like the SP500's 25%.
When will this end?
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Last Call
@LastCallCNBC
“I think small-caps could make a bigger move... 50% or 60%... Russell 2000 could end above 3000,” says
@fundstrat
's Tom Lee. “Small-caps relative to S&P on a price-to-book basis back to where they were in ‘99. That was a launch point for 12 years of gains.”7:30 PM · Jan 16, 2024
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268.1K
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S&P500 under 5000 by end of 2025 wrote:
Flagpole wrote:
1) Of course you will miss me. I am the example of what a human being should be. I suggest you study the lives of Jimmy Carter and Fred Rogers and Dolly Parton to be like inspired.
2) No, I will not tell you all of my holdings and at what price they were purchased.
3) My stuff is very well diversified, so mainly if you just average the Dow, S&P 500 and NASDAQ, you will get close to what I have gained in any given year. If you wanted to average in an AVERAGE of international stocks, that would get you even closer.
I will be sad to see you go, you seem like a decent guy. But can't believe you didn't see that Trump was going to win.
The 13 keys. He was done in by the 13 keys.
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If you expand this to max time distance and look at other times the yield curve has quickly de-inverted like it is doing now...a recession was almost here. Hope that doesn't happen again. But like everything economic...the post-covid world is not like the pre-covid world time after time.
And a very small number of examples so might just be coincidence.
This post was edited 25 seconds after it was posted.10 -
agip wrote:
If you expand this to max time distance and look at other times the yield curve has quickly de-inverted like it is doing now...a recession was almost here. Hope that doesn't happen again. But like everything economic...the post-covid world is not like the pre-covid world time after time.
And a very small number of examples so might just be coincidence.
"de-inverted." Nice one, Agip. Never heard that before.
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S&P500 under 5000 by end of 2025 wrote:
Flagpole wrote:
1) Of course you will miss me. I am the example of what a human being should be. I suggest you study the lives of Jimmy Carter and Fred Rogers and Dolly Parton to be like inspired.
2) No, I will not tell you all of my holdings and at what price they were purchased.
3) My stuff is very well diversified, so mainly if you just average the Dow, S&P 500 and NASDAQ, you will get close to what I have gained in any given year. If you wanted to average in an AVERAGE of international stocks, that would get you even closer.
I will be sad to see you go, you seem like a decent guy. But can't believe you didn't see that Trump was going to win.
Well, I'm not perfect. I did not realize how stupid Americans were. I gave them way too much credit...this is something I keep doing, and I really need to stop doing that and reset my expectations of Americans as a whole.
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Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Flagpole wrote:
I appreciate the nice comments. People will have to get their financial advice elsewhere. Hopefully it won't be from annuity sellers. The serious newbies should start with Dave Ramsey just for a good template (though he's wrong about credit card useage and how much to EXPECT the market to return annually (he says up to 12% and that people can take 10% in retirement)...maybe if you're 85 when you retire you can take 10%.
Best wishes Flaggy. I am sure you will benefit from spending less time here. By the way, I generally agree with most of your financial advice. As far as politics, much blame goes to both parties.
Thanks. Regarding politics, I agree that both sides are to blame for some things but that Republicans are WAY over the line in that regard.
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agip wrote:
Flagpole wrote:
Thanks. Just had enough Trumper nonsense to last a lifetime, so I'm going to ignore that POS and the morons who support him as much as possible these next 4 years (or however long he's in office). The Lovely Mrs. Flagpole will have joined me in retirement by the time Trump's term is over, so who knows where we will be off to, but I PLAN to post on Inaguration Day in 2029 no matter who it is (unless it is DONALD Trump again).
as much as I will miss your presence, FP, I admire and applaud anyone moving away from social media. It's the right thing to do.
Except Strava. Not sure how all this would work without Strava.
You've been here for 20+ years, right? Amazing stuff.
Some things:
1) I started posting here in 2001. My first handle was "Zipperman." It wasn't too long before I settled on "Flagpole Willy," which I didn't mean to have the sophomoric crude meaning that I see now that it did. I chose the name because: 1) run this idea up the Flagpole, and 2) I had voted for Bill Clinton twice. I later dropped the "Willy" part since I didn't mean it to have that meaning.
2) I am not abandoning social media...just this site (which is the only site I talk about Trump on). I AM using social media less than I used to since retiring, but that's mainly because I'm not tied to a work situation where I'm waiting for a process to complete, etc. Since retiring, I spend fewer hours per day in front of a computer than I used to.
3) As I have no health issues, I fully expect to be able to return here in 4 years at the then age of 62. I do PLAN to post on the Inauguration Day of whomever is the next President...as long as it isn't Donald Trump again. I will also post on the day that Trump is no longer President if that comes before that Inauguration Day (death, removal), assuming I am near a computer on that day.
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Dr Prof Racket, PhD wrote:
agip wrote:
as much as I will miss your presence, FP, I admire and applaud anyone moving away from social media. It's the right thing to do.
Except Strava. Not sure how all this would work without Strava.
You've been here for 20+ years, right? Amazing stuff.
Flagpole is (much like our soon to be dear leader) a massive attention whore, above all else.
I give it a week before he's back under "Ghost of Flagpole" and while asking wejo to do an IP check
1) If I were an attention whore, why would I want to leave here for 4 years? Now, that doesn't make sense, does it? Thinking is hard. Try it sometime.
2) I absolutely will not post here under any user name while Trump is in office.
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Bitcoin back up over $103k.
Can we top the $108 record price soon?
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Dr Prof Racket, PhD wrote:
agip wrote:
aw come on
Flagpole is an institution, and his heart is in the right place.
Sure, he tries to get attention but being a class clown sometimes isn't so bad is it? Not very high on my list of 'things to be glad when they disappear.'
Well that's my point - he won't be gone lol.
You can rest easy knowing that each pseudo-Flagpole account is actually him.
You're wrong, brother. I actually really will NOT do that. I will not post at all here with any username while Trump is in office. I won't make any exceptions to the rule either.
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agip wrote:
Dr Prof Racket, PhD wrote:
Well that's my point - he won't be gone lol.
You can rest easy knowing that each pseudo-Flagpole account is actually him.
eh who cares
I'm happy to go along with whatever anonymity people want to claim around there. It's just a show...if people want to take on different characters I'm fine with that.
Would be lame if a neo-flagpole did not disguise his new character well enough though, oui.
I really will not post under ANY username. If someone wanted to imitate me, that wouldn't be too hard...call people "brother," enumerate, use ellipses a lot, use ALL CAPS to emphasize rather than italics...and a few other things.
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Flagpole wrote:
Some things:
1) I started posting here in 2001. My first handle was "Zipperman." It wasn't too long before I settled on "Flagpole Willy," which I didn't mean to have the sophomoric crude meaning that I see now that it did. I chose the name because: 1) run this idea up the Flagpole, and 2) I had voted for Bill Clinton twice. I later dropped the "Willy" part since I didn't mean it to have that meaning.
2) I am not abandoning social media...just this site (which is the only site I talk about Trump on). I AM using social media less than I used to since retiring, but that's mainly because I'm not tied to a work situation where I'm waiting for a process to complete, etc. Since retiring, I spend fewer hours per day in front of a computer than I used to.
3) As I have no health issues, I fully expect to be able to return here in 4 years at the then age of 62. I do PLAN to post on the Inauguration Day of whomever is the next President...as long as it isn't Donald Trump again. I will also post on the day that Trump is no longer President if that comes before that Inauguration Day (death, removal), assuming I am near a computer on that day.
So you won't post if Trump negotiates a 3rd term? ;)
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fjb wrote:
1) Zerohedge is Russian propaganda.
2) Why are so many Americans struggling? TWO reasons: A) Americans on average do not know how to budget or to restrain themselves from spending when they shouldn't, and B) the minimum wage is too low, and that actually affects all salary levels from there on up.
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fjb wrote:
Flagpole wrote:
Some things:
1) I started posting here in 2001. My first handle was "Zipperman." It wasn't too long before I settled on "Flagpole Willy," which I didn't mean to have the sophomoric crude meaning that I see now that it did. I chose the name because: 1) run this idea up the Flagpole, and 2) I had voted for Bill Clinton twice. I later dropped the "Willy" part since I didn't mean it to have that meaning.
2) I am not abandoning social media...just this site (which is the only site I talk about Trump on). I AM using social media less than I used to since retiring, but that's mainly because I'm not tied to a work situation where I'm waiting for a process to complete, etc. Since retiring, I spend fewer hours per day in front of a computer than I used to.
3) As I have no health issues, I fully expect to be able to return here in 4 years at the then age of 62. I do PLAN to post on the Inauguration Day of whomever is the next President...as long as it isn't Donald Trump again. I will also post on the day that Trump is no longer President if that comes before that Inauguration Day (death, removal), assuming I am near a computer on that day.
So you won't post if Trump negotiates a 3rd term? ;)
CORRECT! I believe the chance is low, but it is not zero. He went to some pretty great lengths to try to hold onto power the first time he was supposed to leave office. No guarantee he will do so willingly this time when his term is over.
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