Down goes the Dow

Speculation alive and well.

The “amazing economy” is a mixture of extraordinary MMT and Government expansion:

Searching for more down votes:

BIg day for the markets. Thanks, Joe Biden!

Anticipatory expectations. Thanks Donny!

Big day in the markets. Thanks Josephine Blow of LBGTQ at the BLS.

Flagpole - you will be leaving soon. We would love to have you hang around. But if you do leave, please lets us know how you do against the Dow. In 4 years I am pretty sure you will have beaten it 38 out of 39 years. Very, very impressive.

don't forget massive margin expansion!

The Kobeissi Letter
@KobeissiLetter

This is incredible:
Free cash flow (FCF) margins for the top 10 S&P 500 stocks are averaging a record 27% this decade.
By comparison, in the 2010s, the top 10 companies averaged FCF margins of 22% or 5 percentage points lower.
In the 2000s and the 1990s, FCF margins were just 15% and 10%, respectively.

Ability to refinance at low interest rates, borrow to buyback stocks; cost of capital going forward will put pressure on margins.

Bidenomics:

Does anyone else find this terrifying? I don't understand why this isn't a bigger issue. We're headed towards a collapse of the country if we don't reign this in.

Well, you read the posts on this thread from intelligent people. I suppose it is a typical response to dance while the party is on. That does not mean there will not be a hell of a hangover, or years of AA meetings.

1. As I keep pointing out, when you compare a number, do it as a ratio to GDP, esp in inflationary times like these. It all becomes less scary. Esp in a nation that borrows in its own currency.

fred.stlouisfed.org

Federal Debt: Total Public Debt as Percent of Gross Domestic Product

Federal Debt: Total Public Debt as Percent of Gross Domestic Product

Open link

2. If you've been around for a while, people have been screaming for 40+ years about how the national debt will ruin the country. Meanwhile we have thrived and the naysayers have been proven wrong. So there's a combo 'you've been falsely screaming about the sky falling for my entire life and it hasn't so I don't believe you' and 'a frog in slowly warming water doesn't know it's about to die.'

3. The high debt situation is bad and will correct itself one way or the other. If we don't fix it ourselves the market will do it for us in an unpleasant fashion.

4. Our current interest rates are fine, historically. We had a run there of too-low rates but don't think those were normal.

good call from scaramucci. Although he has a very wide range. BTC was around $20k at the time, so a brave call.

Genevieve Roch-Decter, CFA
@GRDecter
Anthony Scaramucci sees 2023 as a recovery year for Bitcoin, and says it will be back at $50k to $100k in 2 or 3 years.
Do you think he's right?

12:07 PM · Jan 16, 2023
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616.4K
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talk about 'sky is falling' guy...rosenberg gtes another one wrong.

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David Rosenberg
@EconguyRosie
The coming year will be defined by a U.S. consumer-led recession. A slowdown in business investment and the expiration of fiscal support will compound the downturn.

1:09 PM · Jan 17, 2024
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43.3K
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The year 2014 called and wants it's bear thesis back

Related - high paying crypto jobs in tech are making a big comeback and they were previously seen as being highly toxic

“Related - high paying crypto jobs in tech are making a big comeback and they were previously seen as being highly toxic”

The year 2025 and wants its bull thesis intact.

A nation distracted by phony investment schemes and social agendas, yet seemingly unwilling to address simple threats like crime, flooding, and wild fires.