yup
Carl Quintanilla
@carlquintanilla
YARDENI: “.. we acknowledge that the risk of a meltup has increased In a meltup scenario, the S&P 500 could soar to above 6000 by the end of this year.”
10:26 AM · Sep 20, 2024
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la gente esta muy loca wrote:
90 and 78 years ago today?
Always on my mind, wise men say.
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agip wrote:
la gente esta muy loca wrote:
90 and 78 years ago today?
Always on my mind, wise men say.
Yeah, i saw that those two were the answer, but couldn't come up with a witty response like yours.
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agip wrote:
la gente esta muy loca wrote:
90 and 78 years ago today?
Always on my mind, wise men say.
Willie Nelson was indeed a wise man.
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Rough one here
Carl Quintanilla
@carlquintanilla
CITI: Our US economists “project a mid-’24 recession. Yet,.. earnings will prove resilient. .. We look for .. year-end 2024 target of 5100 .. predicated on $245 of index earnings per share and a stable index multiple. Broadening beyond 2023’s Mega Cap Growth leadership is key ..”10:31 AM · Dec 20, 2023
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Trucking employment rebounded sharply after this tweet.
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Bravos Research
@bravosresearch
WARNING: Trucking employment has been collapsing
This is a precursor to recessions since 19911:20 PM · Jun 13, 2024
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Almost into extreme fear already. I guess I have to start buying if we get there, even though I really don't like this market.
35 days since a new high on the SP500
almost all of the post-election bump has evaporated
the world is starting to face the fact that a, let's say, non-traditional steward of the world economy takes office in a couple weeks.
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I grew up in Pacific Palisades, so naturally attuned to this event:
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agip wrote:
Almost into extreme fear already. I guess I have to start buying if we get there, even though I really don't like this market.
35 days since a new high on the SP500
almost all of the post-election bump has evaporated
the world is starting to face the fact that a, let's say, non-traditional steward of the world economy takes office in a couple weeks.
Neat
Stocks only go up though.
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Ghost of Igloi wrote:
I grew up in Pacific Palisades, so naturally attuned to this event:
Interesting live test of the broken window theory...that if you went around breaking everyone's windows fixing it all would stimulate the economy.
Don't usually insurance stocks go up after a disaster? On the theory that people will flock to buy insurance out of fear, and insurance companies will be able to raise rates because of that high demand and high fear? Would be ominous if that doesn't work this time...if the disaster is just too large.
A Dem-run fed gummint would just shovel cash over....But Trump wants to cut California off and send it floating off in the sea, preferably in flames, so that may not happen this time.
Coincidentally, here's a post from earlier in the year noting CA's unemployment rate was spiking and that traditionally that can be a preview of the nation.
This post was edited 1 minute after it was posted.11 -
Dr Prof Racket, PhD wrote:
agip wrote:
Almost into extreme fear already. I guess I have to start buying if we get there, even though I really don't like this market.
35 days since a new high on the SP500
almost all of the post-election bump has evaporated
the world is starting to face the fact that a, let's say, non-traditional steward of the world economy takes office in a couple weeks.
Neat
Stocks only go up though.
doc racket welcome back. Pull up a chair, watch the fireworks.
Here's Bill Gross again being wrong, predicting a recession in 4Q23. Didn't happen.
Bill Gross
@real_bill_gross
Regional bank carnage and recent rise in auto delinquencies to long-term historical highs indicate U.S. economy slowing significantly.
Recession in 4th quarter.
Best investments are equity arbs (CPRI and SGEN. VMW a long shot). I’m seriously considering regional banks again. 1/2
11:13 AM · Oct 23, 2023
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733.1K
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CPRI: -53%
can't find the others.
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Reference, stocks only go up:
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A perfect call from el goldman
BTW inflation predictions seem to be nosing back over right now, after a period of rising/flatness. Probably a great time to go out on the yield curve and buy some longer term bonds. I've been hiding in money market but have been buying 5-10 year corporates lately.
And I still have the giant pile of short term junk bonds I backed up the truck for in 2h24. Those things are beating the SP500 over 3 months.
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Carl Quintanilla
@carlquintanilla
GOLDMAN: “.. More disinflation is in store over the next year. .. core inflation should fall back to 2-21⁄2% by end-2024. .. We continue to see only limited recession risk and reaffirm our 15% US recession probability.” [Hatzius] 🇺🇸12:18 PM · Nov 8, 2023
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Just watched this video and thought it had a lot of great info.It basically just summarized and talked about this analysis:
I'm short on time so being super brief, but one of the things from the analysis is that so far, any time in history we've had P/E ratios as high as current levels, the annual return on stocks over the next 10 years has been between -2% and +2%. That is frightening. Again, short on time, but it seems like virtually all indicators are blinking red right now, suggesting some kind of correction is highly likely at some point in 2025. Frustratingly, it could also be that the market simply mostly stalls and inches forward over the next several years. That's pretty unlikely though too as the market usually fluctuates 10% per year from 52 week high to 52 week low even when the overall growth is flat in that time period.
Perhaps my own habits are a meaningless indicator, but I have faithfully mostly DCAed in index funds the past 10+ years but stopped doing that about 2 months ago. I am putting my money elsewhere where it's guaranteed roughly 5-6% annually. I feel like that is much smarter and more prudent right now. A drop of 20% wouldn't surprise me.
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Another great breakdown:
Credit card debt is at an all time high also, FAR higher than it was even in 2020.
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CG 2 wrote:
Another great breakdown:Credit card debt is at an all time high also, FAR higher than it was even in 2020.
the raw amount of debt *should* keep going up...nominal GDP is growing 6% ish so debt should go up at least that!
but if you compare household debt to GDP, as you should, clearly there is not a problem. Love the Xmas bump every year, in this graph. What a country.Also, households are in a historically average position in terms of ability to make debt payments. Income has gone up with debt! Average amount of difficulty making debt payments.
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Another perfect call from GS:
Carl Quintanilla
@carlquintanilla
GOLDMAN: “.. We expect much stronger GDP growth in 2024 than consensus ..
“A consumer slowdown looks unlikely ..
“A sharper deterioration in the labor market is unlikely ..
“Something finally ‘breaking’ due to higher interest rates is unlikely .. because the peak growth hit from higher rates .. is well behind us ..”9:53 AM · Jan 14, 2024
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Correct direction from Siegel
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CNBC's Closing Bell
@CNBCClosingBell
What lies ahead for stocks in the final stretch of this year and beyond?
"The setup for next year is very good," says Wharton School Professor Jeremy Siegel. "I think that we can definitely get another 10-12% in 2024."3:10 PM · Dec 27, 2023
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