Down goes the Dow

Still a 60% chance of a shutdown per poly market.
we are heading deep into the woods, nothing accomplished yet.

82% chance of a shutdown now

this is definitely not how you do it.

As if it matters shutting down a Government that won’t even show up to work.

Listen to the Purple Hair Lady, she looks rational.

https://x.com/libsoftiktok/status/1869898279716049128?s=61

Open image

I can't remember where I read it, but last month someone on social media had a post about an auto executive coming to Washington with new ideas on how to run the government. One was led to believe it was Musk, but when he said it was the DoD, it was obvious he was talking about Robert McNamara. I immediately thought of this;

“Among those dazzled by the Administration team was Vice-President
Lyndon Johnson. After attending his first Cabinet meeting he went back
to his mentor Sam Rayburn and told him with great enthusiasm how
extraordinary they were, each brighter than the next, and that the
smartest of them all was that fellow with the Stacomb on his hair from
the Ford Motor Company, McNamara. “Well, Lyndon,” Mister Sam answered,
“you may be right and they may be every bit as intelligent as you say,
but I’d feel a whole lot better about them if just one of them had run
for sheriff once.”
David Halberstam,
The Best and the Brightest

Heh yeah

i think of the Truman commission when I read about musk and vivek. Not really the same, but a worthy mission that actually worked. It was a broad investigation into defense spending that found much fraud.

it made Truman’s name and did a lot of good.

en.m.wikipedia.org

Truman Committee

The Truman Committee, formally known as the Senate Special Committee to Investigate the National Defense Program, was a United States Congressional investigative body, headed by Senator Harry S. Truman. The bipartisan special...

Open link

You'll might find this interesting. It highlights the point "Mister Sam" is making.

Why was it a flop? There is, of course, inefficiency and waste in the
federal government, as there is in any large organization. But most
government spending happens because it delivers something people want,
and you can’t make significant cuts without hard choices.

Furthermore, the notion that businessmen have skills that readily translate into
managing the government is all wrong. Business and government serve
different purposes and require different mindsets.

paulkrugman.substack.com

The Fraudulence of “Waste, Fraud and Abuse”

Paul Krugman

History repeats itself, the first time as farce, the second as clown show

Open link

working on our what...our 15th year of 'do not diversify, do not buy value stocks.'

I wonder what investing classes are like now, in MBA school. I mean these kids have never seen a time where value mattered. Hearing about it must make as much sense as learning Greek.

The ‘new era’ commencing in 1927 involved at bottom the abandonment of the analytical approach; and while emphasis was still seemingly placed on facts and figures, these were manipulated by a sort of pseudo-analysis to support the delusions of the period. The ‘new-era’ doctrine – that ‘good’ stocks (or ‘blue chips’) were sound investments regardless of how high the price paid for them – was at bottom only a means for rationalizing under the title of ‘investment’ the well-nigh universal capitulation to the gambling fever.”

– Benjamin Graham & David L. Dodd, Security Analysis, 1934

“The greed itch begins when you see stocks move that you don’t own. Then friends of yours have a stock that has doubled; or if you have one that has doubled, they have one that has tripled. This is what produces bull market tops. Obviously no one rationally would want to buy at the top, and yet enough people do to produce a top. It is really quite amazing how time horizons and money goals can change when there are stocks around that are going up 100 percent in six months. Finally it all turns into a marvelous carmagnole that is great fun if you leave the party early.”

– Adam Smith (GJW Goodman), The Money Game, 1967

Financials up 29% over the past year despite all this.

The Kobeissi Letter
@KobeissiLetter
The default rate on credit card loans from small banks just hit a record high of 7.5%.
This is well above the 2001 high of 6.0% and 2008 high of 5.6%.
Meanwhile, these same small lenders have exposure to 70% of commercial real estate loans in the US.
~$1.5 trillion of these loans must be refinanced by 2025 in an environment where rates have more than doubled and office vacancies are everywhere.
All while these are the same regional banks that nearly collapsed just a few months ago.
How can this end well?

8:02 PM · Sep 9, 2023
·
875.8K
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Narrator: This time was different.

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Bravos Research
@bravosresearch
The probability of a recession in 2024 is at levels only seen 2 times since 1960
Both ended in severe recessions
This time is NOT different

2:01 PM · Dec 8, 2023
·
194.5K
Views

Worst day in eons on Wednesday for me and yesterdar was 2nd worst.

Today off to a crap start.

Month of gains wiped out in a little over 24 hours (tanked mid afternoon Wednesday and by the end of Thursday the gains were gone.

It's been a truly great year in the markets and we have a lot to be thankful for.

I try to keep this in mind this time of year since my better half, to her credit, is diligent about seeing that we make donations to services and organizations helping those in need.

There's up days and down days in the market, no doubt, but that's to be expected.

Happy Holidays, everyone. And if you can spread the cheer somewhat, I am sure it would be greatly appreciated.

Thanks.

Last year we honored my family by having Christmas cards printed from linoleum block art done by my two brothers. This year we used the same theme, but Christmas art drawn by my wife’s mother. We also included as an insert a letter she wrote to her husband Christmas Day 1944 when he was interned at Stalag Luft III.

good call from barrons a year ago. Rates are indeed staying high.

Jim Bianco
@biancoresearch
Today's Barron's Cover
Higher Rates Are Here to Stay. What That Really Means.
Even as inflation eases, global changes including less government trade and growing deficits will keep rates higher than before.
https://barrons.com/articles/high-interest-rates-economy-fed-treasuries-b5bfc149

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11:54 AM · Dec 9, 2023
·
97.4K
Views

Have to say I'm a bit disappointed with GEO (private prison stock - a great industry in the case of a Trump win). Went up nearly 100% the days after the election but has been basically flat since then. Closed November 5th at $15.13, then went to $21.5 on the 6th, $24.43 on the 7th, and has hovered in the $26-29 range since then. I took profits at $25 but I had hoped it'd go up to the $35+ range

This was on my mind as I read this article today:

https://www.wsj.com/politics/policy/trump-deportation-private-prison-companies-49a18e3e?mod=hp_lead_pos1

America’s Private Prison Complex Gears Up for Trump Deportation Bonanza

"Private prisons and other companies that provide detention services are getting ready to cash in on what President-elect Donald Trump has billed as “the largest domestic deportation operation in American history.” That includes scouring for as many detention beds as possible in their networks of facilities, and scouting sites for new buildings to house migrants.
Some executives are considering whether to take up the controversial work of detaining families or unaccompanied children. Others are preparing to hire new staff and snapping up well-connected lobbyists.
“This is, to us, an unprecedented opportunity,” George Zoley, executive chairman of the GEO Group, a private prison company, told investors on an earnings call days after the election."