Down goes the Dow

Dow has taken a beating lately.

Dow YTD: UP 15.99%

Flagpole YTD: UP 21.91%

Cue Sally.

Current theory:

Most stocks are selling off, down regularly and steadily, down around 5% from their highs now.

but tech is not selling off - it's staying right at all-time highs.

My guess is that the market is saying: ok we're clearly in for some chaos after the inauguration. Trade wars plus tariffs plus taking out of the economy millions of workers and taxpayers and consumers, maybe seriously injuring entire industries and (maybe) slashing gummint spending will of course hurt most companies...

but markets think tech will be fine despite all the chaos about to be unleashed. So people are selling bricks and mortar stocks and buying tech stocks hand over fist. Thinking tech will survive best.

It might work, I don't know. But I doubt it.

How to play this? I've been fading this rally and putting cash into money market as dry powder. I suspect sometime during the shock and awe of the first 100 days the market will force trump to stop the chaos and be normal and more dependable. So there should be buying opportunities.

Big question is whether to be contrarian and buy all these cheap US value stocks, with them being beat up a little.

In the meantime, I get 4.4% with no real risk, which isn't bad.

Your killing it, FP!

Keep us posted.

dow is actually up 18.0%

and flagpole still has a tech-heavy portfolio.

It's official, the streak is now 12 days!

Open image

Nope!

Hilarious the Dow was around 26% a week ago and Flagpole around 19%. Flagpole says Dow done terribly and the Dow drops but his portfolio goes up. Flagpole seriously use the correct YTD total return for the Dow. You look like a country bumpkin using the wrong number. Total return includes dividends. Even the lovely Mrs. Flagpole knows this and she only one bringing home the bacon. Your thinking skills have atrophied.

Things are as they are, and you are wrong about wht the Dow was a week ago. The highest the DJITR has been in December was UP 21.58%.

My stuff doesn't track the Dow, so if the Dow has a bad time, my stuff CAN go up.

The largest Vanguard funds have 30 to 60% tech. Flagpole do you know what holdings are?

Yikes, IVE is Ishares, not Vanguard. This 80 degree weather in Dec is getting to me.

this poster mocked the Fed's 'eh no problem' approach to the inverted yield curve. We now know the Fed was correct to shrug. From april 2023.

Jim Bianco
@biancoresearch
Back in his November 2 presser, Powell was asked about the inverted curve.
He essentially answered, "Nothing to see here. The curve we watch is not inverted."

1) Who said I'm heavily in the "largest" Vanguard funds?

2) My stuff is in Vanguard AND Fidelity.

3) Holdings? Nope. Never heard of that. [sigh]

https://www.wsj.com/world/americas/milei-says-trump-backs-argentinas-free-market-makeover-81137111?mod=hp_lead_pos10

Milei, a self-declared anarcho-capitalist with Wolverine-like sideburns, is coming off a strong first year in office after implementing painful spending cuts to bring down the world’s highest inflation rate.
The results have surprised economists, including the Argentine president himself, a former economics professor who during the campaign brandished a chainsaw to symbolize how he would cut into government spending and regulations.

“Inflation has fallen much faster than we expected,” Milei said in his office, where he had a replica of a chainsaw sitting on a long table. “Everything indicates that next year we’re going to have less inflation, higher GDP per capita, higher salaries and less poverty.”
That is welcome news for this nation’s 47 million people, who were battered by years of economic turmoil that sparked a backlash against the political establishment and propelled outsider Milei to power with pledges to destroy the state bureaucracy.
Workers lost a third of their purchasing power during the previous, left-wing Peronist administration, which drove inflation into the triple digits as it ramped up money printing to cover the deficit.

Why do so many former conservatives consider 'economic freedom' to mean 'exemption from tax laws?'

May 1, 2024, 3:35 PM EDT / Source: CNBC
By Rebecca Picciotto, CNBC.com
The Justice Department unveiled criminal tax fraud charges this week against a prolific bitcoin investor named Roger Ver. He came to be known as “Bitcoin Jesus,” for getting in early on the digital currency and making a fortune.
Ver allegedly evaded at least $48 million in taxes, according to the indictment announced Tuesday.
The indictment, filed in California federal court, claims that Ver executed the fraud scheme by failing to report a portion of the 131,000 bitcoin that he owned in 2014, when he renounced his U.S. citizenship after becoming a citizen of the Caribbean nation of St. Kitts and Nevis.
At the time, each bitcoin was worth roughly $871. It was trading Wednesday morning at $57,416, which would make Ver’s 131,000 bitcoins worth more than $7.5 billion.
Becoming a U.S. expat requires an individual to pay a special tax to the Internal Revenue Service. The DOJ alleges that in preparing those tax filings, Ver underrepresented his bitcoin holdings and evaded taxes on them.
The indictment further alleges that even after his expatriation from the U.S., Ver continued to underreport his bitcoin ownership, which he was still required to pay U.S. taxes on.

Milei is a free trader who cut the budget

trump is a massive protectionist who blew out the budget

not the same. Stop with this.

Milei wants a free trade pact with the US. What do you think the odds are he'll get it from protectionist 'tariff is the most beautiful word in the english language' donald trump?

I mean Milei is 180 degrees opposite from American Republicans. 'more trade opportunities with China' indeed. Hah.

Argentine President Javier Milei said he will seek a free trade agreement with the United States and expects the incoming Trump administration to “support” his government with the International Monetary Fund (IMF). He also said that he will pursue more trade opportunities with China and confirmed he will travel to Beijing in March.

Fidelity 500 index fund is the largest Fidelity fund. 33% TECH.

So? Why do you assume I have that fund? Why do you think that 33% tech is "tech-heavy" as agip likes to say my portfolio is? I would not call 33% tech-heavy. Do I have a LOT of tech? Of course. I have a lot of everything.