In anticipation of the second Trump presidency. Things are going to be very great from here on out. Good riddance to Joe Biden and Kamala Harris. You had a trash presidency. So long!
In anticipation of the second Trump presidency. Things are going to be very great from here on out. Good riddance to Joe Biden and Kamala Harris. You had a trash presidency. So long!
Nah. Markets are forward looking, but this is still under Biden's watch, just continuing the great stock market that we have had during his Presidency. No change here due to Trump.
History will not treat Trump well (well, at least not based on his first Presidency...we shall see regarding the second one), but it will treat Biden VERY well. One of the most accomplished, if not THE most accomplished one-term President in our nation's history.
So far, other that his stupid staff picks, he has said some CORRECT things...not REALLY being able to lower the price of groceries (duh), going against delusional RFK, Jr. on the polio vaccine, and changing his tune a bit on Putin. Who knows really what he thinks though as he lies as if he'd die if he didn't.
Before Trump was elected this second time, we had record low unemployment, record high wages, record number of Americans working, record high stock market, record oil production, amazing things passed that will benefit the American people for a very long time. None of that was due to Trump.
2024 stats will be adjusted lower when Jan employment report is released in Feb. There's nothing nefarious about it. ZH, as I've pointed out before, relies on the ignorant, indolent and incurious seeking confirmation bias. Don't really think they're some Russian operation, one of the main operator's father was some big shot in the Bulgarian intelligence during the Cold War. Just your average bear porn site.
The two day FOMC wraps up Weds., and the 2:00 PM EST is when we can expect the decision on interest rate cut, followed by a press conference at 2:30.
The current projection is 86% chance of a quarter point cut. I would think the big unknown will be what kind of bias Powell conveys at the press conference for future cuts.
Correct directional call and for the right reasons
Carl Quintanilla @carlquintanilla B of A: “We forecast 5000 by year-end 2024 for the $SPX (+10% from today). .. we are past maximum macro uncertainty. The market has absorbed significant geopolitical shocks .. We’re bullish not because we expect the Fed to cut, but because of what the Fed has accomplished
The two day FOMC wraps up Weds., and the 2:00 PM EST is when we can expect the decision on interest rate cut, followed by a press conference at 2:30.
The current projection is 86% chance of a quarter point cut. I would think the big unknown will be what kind of bias Powell conveys at the press conference for future cuts.
yeah I think we're probably done with cuts for a while (after this one)...inflation is building back in right now and the economy is roaring. Especially in regard to animal spirits - no need to throw more gasoline on this fire with many more rate cuts.
But Powell will take some heat from the WH if he pauses. everyone else is folding in fear of DJT so maybe Powell will also, and continue cutting just to keep trump off his back.
The two day FOMC wraps up Weds., and the 2:00 PM EST is when we can expect the decision on interest rate cut, followed by a press conference at 2:30.
The current projection is 86% chance of a quarter point cut. I would think the big unknown will be what kind of bias Powell conveys at the press conference for future cuts.
yeah I think we're probably done with cuts for a while (after this one)...inflation is building back in right now and the economy is roaring. Especially in regard to animal spirits - no need to throw more gasoline on this fire with many more rate cuts.
But Powell will take some heat from the WH if he pauses. everyone else is folding in fear of DJT so maybe Powell will also, and continue cutting just to keep trump off his back.
Well, I'm cutting Trump on my back I've been hiking Trump on my back There was a rebooting Trump on my back And me the victim Well, I won't be back
Time to update my 3-Month SOFR (Secured Overnight Funding Rate) Futures chart. Remember, subtract from 100.
Graph and download economic data for (((((1+(Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 10-Year Constant Maturity, Quoted on an Investment Basis/100))^10)/((1+(Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 7-Year Constant Matu...
Things that make you say umm. IVE (Vanguard S&P 500 Value Index) is heading for it's 12th straight down day in a row. It set a record Fri when it was 10 days!
Things that make you say umm. IVE (Vanguard S&P 500 Value Index) is heading for it's 12th straight down day in a row. It set a record Fri when it was 10 days!
"It's nature's way of telling you something's wrong"
weird stuff happening yeah this, and the yield cliff that chinese bonds have fallen off.
sounds like a lot of money moving around right now.
whoosh whoosh whoosh
How exactly do you bet?
'Will DJT intentionally destroy the US agriculture, construction and restaurant industries like he says he will, and start trade wars against all our allies? Will he remove millions of workers and consumer and taxpayers from the nation?'
Or will he actually not follow through on his key campaign promises?
I mean how do you invest when facing this kind of insane unpredictable economic future?
Eventually many people are going to say 'hey thanks for the huge rally America, I'll be fine sitting on my giant profits and just watching from the sidelines getting my 4-5% for a while."
This post was edited 6 minutes after it was posted.
In other economic news, a government shutdown is coming on Friday if no funding bill is passed. As Republicans have a majority in the House, I wish they'd draw a 100% firm line and make funding certain things a 100% no-go – i.e. don't pass a funding resolution except if certain things are / aren't in it. e.g. in the future via looking back to 2023 via Rand Paul's Festivus report highlighting $900 billion of waste, DOGE cutting woke and/or pointless programs.
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