Down goes the Dow

"We're in an economic kayfabe right now."
- Paul Tudor Jones

Sure would be easier to take you seriously if you didn’t choose an obscene handle a fourth grader would use to sound brave to his children pals.

SP500 +58% since this hedgie declared we were in a secular bear market. 11/22.

realinvestmentadvice.com

The Next Secular Bear Market May Be Upon Us - RIA

Lance Roberts

After 12 years of a liquidity-fueled, Fed-induced bull market, are the markets set to start another secular bear market?

Open link

march 2023 market expectations were that the Fed rate would be down near 3% by now. It's actually 4.75%. You'd think that would have hurt the stock market but it most emphatically did not. SPX +35% over the past year.

So go ahead, fight the Fed eh. Worked this time anyway.

Charlie Bilello
@charliebilello
Current market expectations for the path of the Fed Funds Rate...
-Mar 22, 2023: 25 bps hike to 4.75%-5.00%
-Pause
-Rate cuts start in July 2023 w/ a Fund Funds Rate of 4% at the end of 2023 and 3% at the end of 2024.

3:06 PM · Mar 13, 2023
·
302.4K
Views

fjb stands for "For Jobs and Business". I'm passionate about economic growth and know that DJT is the best person for that.

well that is not how the abbreviation is commonly used nor understood, and I would consider that fact when you use it all over the site.

reminder how much the market outperformed expectations this year. These from a year ago:

Fundstrat 2024 Outlook
$SPX 5,200 Price Target.
After >15%+ up year, stocks typically gain >10%+ in the following 12-month period.

Kantrowitz revised up his forecast to....SPX 5000. We're at 6094.

Carl Quintanilla
@carlquintanilla
A “reversal from most of last year, when Kantrowitz warned of a plunge in US equities on concern the Federal Reserve’s tightening campaign would send the economy into a downward spiral.”

TSLA up 80% from this prediction 4 years ago. but to be fair, there were enormous losses taken by tesla shareholders, and kass put no time limit on his prediction.

Dougie Kass
@DougKass
On
@realmoney
this morning:
"On Tesla - it is my view that, in the fullness of time, I still believe the company will be the biggest bust in stock market history. Just don't know when. It won't go bust but people will lose more money on this stock then any other stock ever...I am
10:50 AM · Dec 22, 2020

a little optimistic but only a touch. Good call.

James Pethokoukis ⏩⤴️
@JimPethokoukis
As GOLDMAN SACHS recently forecasted: "Looking ahead, we expect the unemployment rate to decline to 3.7%/3.4%/ 3.2% at the end of 2022-2024, eventually falling below last cycle's 50-year low."
10:40 PM · Mar 11, 2021

Especially now, I believe Tesla will do incredibly well in the next few years. You can't put a specific dollar value on it, but having the full support of the world's most powerful man is incredibly helpful for a company.

You would fall for Russian propaganda. Of course you would.

1) According to you, aren't we ALWAYS there?

2) As we approach the glorious return of your Dear Leader, aren't you convinced that prices of things will plummet and the stock market will rise to unimaginable heights?

um...this is the economic fear we should all have...that relationships to the government will determine success in America. You should condemn that kind of thing if you are a conservative. Maybe a communist or putin-style authoritarian would be cool with government connections determining winners but not an economic conservative .

This is just one of a million examples of why you should NEVER act based on what ANY "expert" says about the market. Investing is just one piece of the financial puzzle. You need to get out of debt as soon as possible and stay there, and then invest uninterrupted into stock-containing mutual funds until you are ready to retire and no longer have an income from a job.

Please understand the tone of what I am about to ask and state in my enumerated list below. I am NOT challenging you here. I submit to you that I do not understand what you just said there and am asking for clarification. I am not dismissing you. I am not ridiculing you in any way. This is honest discussion I am trying for here. So, with that said:

1) What do you think Trump will be able to do to help Tesla in any way? Is this a tangible thing?

2) At least here in the US, do you believe Trump followers will suddenly start buying Teslas? Electric cars aren't really part of the MAAGA mindset in any way, shape, or fashion.

3) Here in the US, do you think that the typical electric car driver (liberals) will want to flock to buying Teslas after Musk has exposed himself as a right-wing nutbar? (You may feel that that is a loaded question, but it IS what liberals now think of Musk when they wouldn't have just a few years ago).

4) Going forward from this point, Tesla will have more and more competition, and from manufacturers who have better quality, better reliability, better initial fit and finish. How is it that Tesla will be able to overcome all of that?

5) This question is really for ANYONE. I have long not understood how Musk has become so wealthy based mainly on Tesla. I understand that Tesla was a pioneer of mass-produced electric cars, but initially they were really expensive, and by all accounts, they kind of suck. Initially there were lots of fires. The auto driving feature (whatever it's called) has been shown to not work all that well (causing some deaths in people who trusted it), and the cars themselves don't look all that great. Someone please enlighten me here.

Flagpole is correct on this. Index funds beat actively managed (managed by "experts") mutual funds about 80% of the time. You want a portfolio with diversified mutual funds and then sprinkle in individual stocks (for me the Mag 7 and other stocks that I like. You mainly want to match the market. You can incorporate bonds into your portfolio with target date retirement mutual funds that transition to more and more bonds as you near your retirement date.