Honestly, could anyone be more wrong more often than rosenberg? He sees a recession lurking around every +3% GDP print and when he gets political he gets every freaking word wrong. Read this. It's a litany of wrong. 'Short the USD' heh.
David Rosenberg @EconguyRosie Here’s my advice regarding next week’s election. Don’t stay up all night on November 5th because I sense we will not know who actually won the electoral college vote. This will be the mother of all contested elections replete with recounts and legal challenges. It will be Gore vs Bush in November 2000 on steroids. Remember that period of political uncertainty lasted a full month and went all the way to the Supreme Court. The playbook: long gold, bonds and the VIX; short the SPX and the USD. 1:16 PM · Oct 31, 2024 · 118.6K Views
"What is the market telling us, in other words? Especially since this bull phase has now lasted long enough that those of us who have been on the wrong side of the trade need to take a different tack. This is not about throwing in the towel as much as trying to get a grip on what is going on beyond just calling this a “bubble” every single day. There must be more than that to what we have been seeing over the past two-plus years."
Yes, the disappearance of certain species, particularly those known as "keystone species," can indeed be a strong indicator of an impending ecosystem collapse, as their absence disrupts the delicate balance within the ecosystem, potentially leading to cascading effects that impact numerous other species and vital ecological functions.
Perhaps, but I can compare my returns to anything I like. Like I said before, this isn't a contest with rules. We didn't all decide to do it a certain way and then I did it differently.
The DJIA goes up or down each calendar year. Most of the stocks in the DJIA give dividends. Not all of mine do, and the fact that I choose to reinvest my dividends is a choice that I don't have to make, especially now since I am retired.
I can compare my returns to the Dow in the manner that I do. I can compare my returns to the percentage of sunny days in Boulder, CO. I can compare my returns to anything I like. Hilarious that some of you get your panties in a bunch over this when I have said time and time again that I am a passive investor, I don't go on and on about great stock trades I made like most of you do. I just simply invest and have heavily done so uninterrupted since 1989. It's the consistency and amount of money invested over such a long period of time that makes me unique among this group, not my comparison method.
The reason I keep mentioning being forthcoming is because I find it lacking when you measure your returns against an index, yet you insist on changing the rules on how you measure them.
1) I have not changed the rules at all. I have ALWAYS measured my annual performance against the Dow.
2) I have always said that and never not been forthcoming. You can decide you don't like my measuring stick (some have said here that the Dow isn't a good one anyway...which I agree with), but I have always used that, and I will continue to.
YTD total return for your portfolio - 21.55% (the accuracy of that number is dubious)
The Dow Jones is putting a major hurt on your portfolio.
You said your portfolio was 21.55% yesterday and today it is 21.39%? But how did it go down when both the NASDAQ and S & P were up today? Only the Dow was down today. That seems very odd.
I don't care to ask why...too much work for no reason.
Let's do an update today including yesterday's results:
Dow YTD: UP 18.45%
Flagpole YTD: UP 21.74%
Percentage of people who are stupid who voted for Trump: 100%
It's that time of year, voting for FCOTY (Financial Charlatan of the Year). You can do a write-in, e.g. Flagpole. My votes are 1) Saylor, 2) Andreessen, 3) The All-in Gang. I know what GoI and Sally Vix's #1 pick would be.
I would be hard pressed between Saylor and Bidenomics, so you are half-right. Clearly spending wildly on fiscally unsound social agenda does more economic harm both short and long term. Saylor represents the same thinking, there are no consequences for promoting experimental financial projects. Likely true for the promoters.
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While hard to characterize, milei is no trumper, in terms of economic theory.
for example:
“People make a lazy analogy with Milei and Trump,” said Alejo Czerwonko, UBS AG’s chief investment officer for Americas emerging markets. “On the surface they may have similarities. But in reality, under the hood, the specifics each of them propose are diametrically opposed.”
In Milei’s ten months in office, the chainsaw translated into his administration halting almost 79% of spending on public works and cutting pension expenditures by 21.4%, according to local brokerage PPI. He downsized 12 ministries, cut more than 30,000 government jobs and slashed funds for public hospitals and schools. On the revenue side, Milei increased some taxes to close the fiscal deficit.
Trump, who held an “infrastructure week” during his first term, hasn’t proposed any spending cuts to pensions, public works or healthcare. As Milei hacks away at Argentina’s fiscal deficit, Trump’s proposals — including tax cuts — are expected to boost the US federal deficit by $3 trillion over 10 years, according to an October analysis by the Tax Foundation.
“In Milei’s case, there’s an obsession with eliminating the fiscal deficit,” said Alberto Ades, a director at investment advisory firm NWI Management LP. In the US, “Republicans have a different attitude: Cut taxes first and ask questions later.”
This post was edited 2 minutes after it was posted.
Throwing this out there, how many of you take into consideration your spouse's risk tolerance when allocating for retirement? My mother outlived my father by 20 years and it wasn't because he died young. He was 80 when he passed away.
Also 42 years ago today.
It's a good question. My wife is pretty sharp but she's never shown much interest in managing investments. My goal is to have everything simplified so if I predecease her she won't have to do much. As far as risk tolerance goes we're in a good place and don't need to take any real risk so I could just leave everything in a 60/40 with dividends deposited in her bank account and she'd be set for life.
I don't really take that into consideration one bit. I figure if I drop, she knows that she better change stuff up because my/our portfolio is far from the norm. I've also made sure that she knows how to do that.
It's a good question. My wife is pretty sharp but she's never shown much interest in managing investments. My goal is to have everything simplified so if I predecease her she won't have to do much. As far as risk tolerance goes we're in a good place and don't need to take any real risk so I could just leave everything in a 60/40 with dividends deposited in her bank account and she'd be set for life.
I don't really take that into consideration one bit. I figure if I drop, she knows that she better change stuff up because my/our portfolio is far from the norm. I've also made sure that she knows how to do that.
We regularly discuss our finances, including our various investments. While I do most of the work thinking about our investments, the big decisions are made together following discussion.
While hard to characterize, milei is no trumper, in terms of economic theory.
for example:
“People make a lazy analogy with Milei and Trump,” said Alejo Czerwonko, UBS AG’s chief investment officer for Americas emerging markets. “On the surface they may have similarities. But in reality, under the hood, the specifics each of them propose are diametrically opposed.”
In Milei’s ten months in office, the chainsaw translated into his administration halting almost 79% of spending on public works and cutting pension expenditures by 21.4%, according to local brokerage PPI. He downsized 12 ministries, cut more than 30,000 government jobs and slashed funds for public hospitals and schools. On the revenue side, Milei increased some taxes to close the fiscal deficit.
Trump, who held an “infrastructure week” during his first term, hasn’t proposed any spending cuts to pensions, public works or healthcare. As Milei hacks away at Argentina’s fiscal deficit, Trump’s proposals — including tax cuts — are expected to boost the US federal deficit by $3 trillion over 10 years, according to an October analysis by the Tax Foundation.
“In Milei’s case, there’s an obsession with eliminating the fiscal deficit,” said Alberto Ades, a director at investment advisory firm NWI Management LP. In the US, “Republicans have a different attitude: Cut taxes first and ask questions later.”
Milei is great.
I think Trump should just go more 'slash and burn' - stop funding Ukraine immediately, stop being the world's policeman, cut welfare as much as he can (have it only for people who have fallen on hard times, not people who are too lazy to work), etc. don't know if could be done federally or if it'd have to be at the state level, but have GOP governors / legislatures refuse to give welfare to never-married single mothers. Just one example. And stop subsidizing cosmetic surgeries for trans on Medicaid.
part of Vivek / Elon op-ed, WSJ, roughly 2 weeks ago (Nov 20):
"Previous presidents have used it to amend the civil service rules by executive order, and the Supreme Court has held—in Franklin v. Massachusetts (1992) and Collins v. Yellen (2021) that they weren’t constrained by the Administrative Procedures Act when they did so. With this authority, Mr. Trump can implement any number of “rules governing the competitive service” that would curtail administrative overgrowth, from large-scale firings to relocation of federal agencies out of the Washington area. Requiring federal employees to come to the office five days a week would result in a wave of voluntary terminations that we welcome: If federal employees don’t want to show up, American taxpayers shouldn’t pay them for the Covid-era privilege of staying home."
"Finally, we are focused on delivering cost savings for taxpayers. Skeptics question how much federal spending DOGE can tame through executive action alone. They point to the 1974 Impoundment Control Act, which stops the president from ceasing expenditures authorized by Congress. Mr. Trump has previously suggested this statute is unconstitutional, and we believe the current Supreme Court would likely side with him on this question. But even without relying on that view, DOGE will help end federal overspending by taking aim at the $500 billion plus in annual federal expenditures that are unauthorized by Congress or being used in ways that Congress never intended, from $535 million a year to the Corporation for Public Broadcasting and $1.5 billion for grants to international organizations to nearly $300 million to progressive groups like Planned Parenthood."
"The federal government’s procurement process is also badly broken. Many federal contracts have gone unexamined for years. Large-scale audits conducted during a temporary suspension of payments would yield significant savings. The Pentagon recently failed its seventh consecutive audit, suggesting that the agency’s leadership has little idea how its annual budget of more than $800 billion is spent. Critics claim that we can’t meaningfully close the federal deficit without taking aim at entitlement programs like Medicare and Medicaid, which require Congress to shrink. But this deflects attention from the sheer magnitude of waste, fraud and abuse that nearly all taxpayers wish to end—and that DOGE aims to address by identifying pinpoint executive actions that would result in immediate savings for taxpayers."
And abolish the department of education as well. And immediately cut all government funding to NPR and planned parenthood. NPR is just left wing woke propaganda (it's gone so woke in the past 5 years) and the government shouldn't subsidize planned parenthood at all.
I don't really take that into consideration one bit. I figure if I drop, she knows that she better change stuff up because my/our portfolio is far from the norm. I've also made sure that she knows how to do that.
We regularly discuss our finances, including our various investments. While I do most of the work thinking about our investments, the big decisions are made together following discussion.
That makes a lot of sense.
These things take a lot of finesse and consideration.
We also like to commemorate achieving a milestones with a special night out, at the point and time one is attained.
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