Honestly, could anyone be more wrong more often than rosenberg? He sees a recession lurking around every +3% GDP print and when he gets political he gets every freaking word wrong. Read this. It's a litany of wrong. 'Short the USD' heh.
David Rosenberg @EconguyRosie Here’s my advice regarding next week’s election. Don’t stay up all night on November 5th because I sense we will not know who actually won the electoral college vote. This will be the mother of all contested elections replete with recounts and legal challenges. It will be Gore vs Bush in November 2000 on steroids. Remember that period of political uncertainty lasted a full month and went all the way to the Supreme Court. The playbook: long gold, bonds and the VIX; short the SPX and the USD. 1:16 PM · Oct 31, 2024 · 118.6K Views
Try 10. Remember it took ~13 years after the Tech Bubble, ~16 years for the NASDAQ. Furthermore, the bureaucrats and the politicians removed any price discovery from the markets, blowing the all asset bubble to the highest valuations ever. The crazy behavior this cycle is well beyond anything in the Tech and Housing Bubbles. Why would anyone believe this period would have some benign conclusion?
and Igy thought 10 years. Again, same page, from 6/10/2022
Try 10. Remember it took ~13 years after the Tech Bubble, ~16 years for the NASDAQ. Furthermore, the bureaucrats and the politicians removed any price discovery from the markets, blowing the all asset bubble to the highest valuations ever. The crazy behavior this cycle is well beyond anything in the Tech and Housing Bubbles. Why would anyone believe this period would have some benign conclusion?
and Igy thought 10 years. Again, same page, from 6/10/2022
There’s some non-negligible chance it gets, and stays, below that level for much of the time period of note in Igy’s prediction. Not saying it will, but we haven’t reached 2032 yet, so you are a few years declaring a complete victory on this one.
and Igy thought 10 years. Again, same page, from 6/10/2022
There’s some non-negligible chance it gets, and stays, below that level for much of the time period of note in Igy’s prediction. Not saying it will, but we haven’t reached 2032 yet, so you are a few years declaring a complete victory on this one.
Many things seem unhinged from normal behavior. As part of the educational process, they now pay athletes $Millions. There seems to be few guard rails to almost everything. I am old, out of step with the Age of Greed. Well, I need to stretch before I go out with my running friends 77 and 80. We can talk about our views of this era.
This post was edited 11 minutes after it was posted.
Yes, I could never imagine where we are today in financial markets, except perhaps CRE.
the strange thing is that for a decade or more you've continued to be surprised by exactly the same thing.
Close to a decade, so true enough. Then again, look at Federal Debt. None of this represents actual growth. Taking corporate tax rates down, paying people not to show up to work. Strange things people accept as sustainable.
This post was edited 2 minutes after it was posted.
There’s some non-negligible chance it gets, and stays, below that level for much of the time period of note in Igy’s prediction. Not saying it will, but we haven’t reached 2032 yet, so you are a few years declaring a complete victory on this one.
Federal Debt: Total Debt
Q2 2022 $30.568 Trillion
Q3 2024 $35.464 Trillion
Thankfully, the adults are in charge now and Elon, Vivek, Trump and the Republicans in Congress will lower that number significantly.
Honestly, could anyone be more wrong more often than rosenberg? He sees a recession lurking around every +3% GDP print and when he gets political he gets every freaking word wrong. Read this. It's a litany of wrong. 'Short the USD' heh.
David Rosenberg @EconguyRosie Here’s my advice regarding next week’s election. Don’t stay up all night on November 5th because I sense we will not know who actually won the electoral college vote. This will be the mother of all contested elections replete with recounts and legal challenges. It will be Gore vs Bush in November 2000 on steroids. Remember that period of political uncertainty lasted a full month and went all the way to the Supreme Court. The playbook: long gold, bonds and the VIX; short the SPX and the USD. 1:16 PM · Oct 31, 2024 · 118.6K Views
"What is the market telling us, in other words? Especially since this bull phase has now lasted long enough that those of us who have been on the wrong side of the trade need to take a different tack. This is not about throwing in the towel as much as trying to get a grip on what is going on beyond just calling this a “bubble” every single day. There must be more than that to what we have been seeing over the past two-plus years."
Honestly, could anyone be more wrong more often than rosenberg? He sees a recession lurking around every +3% GDP print and when he gets political he gets every freaking word wrong. Read this. It's a litany of wrong. 'Short the USD' heh.
David Rosenberg @EconguyRosie Here’s my advice regarding next week’s election. Don’t stay up all night on November 5th because I sense we will not know who actually won the electoral college vote. This will be the mother of all contested elections replete with recounts and legal challenges. It will be Gore vs Bush in November 2000 on steroids. Remember that period of political uncertainty lasted a full month and went all the way to the Supreme Court. The playbook: long gold, bonds and the VIX; short the SPX and the USD. 1:16 PM · Oct 31, 2024 · 118.6K Views
"What is the market telling us, in other words? Especially since this bull phase has now lasted long enough that those of us who have been on the wrong side of the trade need to take a different tack. This is not about throwing in the towel as much as trying to get a grip on what is going on beyond just calling this a “bubble” every single day. There must be more than that to what we have been seeing over the past two-plus years."
So true, So true.
As far as I know, some here would still be claiming this is little more than a "bear market rally" (their words, not mine). And that view has never been retracted.
"What is the market telling us, in other words? Especially since this bull phase has now lasted long enough that those of us who have been on the wrong side of the trade need to take a different tack. This is not about throwing in the towel as much as trying to get a grip on what is going on beyond just calling this a “bubble” every single day. There must be more than that to what we have been seeing over the past two-plus years."
So true, So true.
As far as I know, some here would still be claiming this is little more than a "bear market rally" (their words, not mine). And that view has never been retracted.
Not sure how that would fit in there, but I have not told a lie in my adult life.
WHOA!
Would that be a little backpeddling there? Hmmm?
Now we are limiting the lying, are we? To your adult life, we are now to believe?
Because I seem to recollect you claimed you never lied "ever", adult and otherwise.
Let's see, oh look what I found!:
Flagpole on Down Goes The Dow, 12/28/20 10:47 AM wrotlte:
Flagpole wrote: You lose, Sally. You will NEVER catch me in a lie, NEVER...because I do not EVER lie. You keep trying though.
Nice catch Seattle. I am 105% sure that the lovely Missus Flagpole has caught her lovely husband many times lying during their marriage. The poor lady.
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