similarly, the german stock market apparently did fine in 1939, 1940, 1941 despite having much of the world literally fighting its nation.
Until the battle of stalingrad. Then the German stock market let's say...lost its teflon.
I suppose if we start nosing over into recession the stock market would tank more than even usual. nosebleed valuations, market concentration, huge debts, political awfulness etc. All the problems under the rug would be exposed and suddenly matter .
But in the meantime the economy is roaring.
All I can figure is the markets are deeply tied to what's happening with interest rates, and as such, we are well into the easing phase, and the markets are loving it. This may be eclipsing all the other concerns, for the moment.
I dunno..inflation is not falling anymore (actually it has been rising a bit) and we're at full employment already. Hard to see much reasoning for many interest rate drops from the fed at this point. The market driven rates aren't showing much tendency to fall either.
I think the market is salivating at the idea of a continuation of the current boom, juiced further by tax cuts and deregulation. A heady mix.
All I can figure is the markets are deeply tied to what's happening with interest rates, and as such, we are well into the easing phase, and the markets are loving it. This may be eclipsing all the other concerns, for the moment.
I dunno..inflation is not falling anymore (actually it has been rising a bit) and we're at full employment already. Hard to see much reasoning for many interest rate drops from the fed at this point. The market driven rates aren't showing much tendency to fall either.
I think the market is salivating at the idea of a continuation of the current boom, juiced further by tax cuts and deregulation. A heady mix.
I'll buy that. I think that has been getting factored into the markets slowly over the last couple of months, and that is why we saw a downturn from the ATHs reached in the Fall, but the markets have slowly rebounded from that to reflect a moderating of the easing plans and schedule.
There's some obvious responses to the election, like that of Tesla and crypto, for example, but I find the surge in small cap companies a very interesting read of where we are headed. It makes sense, and that's probably the reason - a bit of a boost to domestic companies with the advent of tarifs on imports.
This is going to be a very interesting next few months and years.
But it was in the right direction anyway. We're a full 20% over even this upwards revision a year ago.
Post See new posts Conversation Seth Golden @SethCL And just like that we have our first S&P 500 $SPX price target revision. Goldman Sachs lifts 2024 year-end PT from 5,000 to 5,100 citing lower real yields due to Fed easing, disinflation and P/E expanding.
SPX up a robust 33% since this analysis showed it to be very highly valued a year ago. Classic example of how reading the financial press tends to depress your personal returns.
Barchart @Barchart The S&P 500 is historically expensive based on 18/20 valuation metrics according to Bank of America
12:46 AM · Dec 8, 2023 · 23.9K Views
The S&P 500 is historically expensive based on 18/20 valuation metrics according to Bank of America pic.twitter.com/pIbPukm7Lz
Nope! There is no correct or incorrect here. I can (and will) compre my annual returns against ANYTHING I like. This is not a contest with rules. I can do as I please. You can decide that my comparison is meaningless, but it is not "incorrect."
Regarding that, as of last night's close:
Dow YTD: UP 18.82%
Flagpole YTD: UP 20.20%
Percentage of people who are stupid who voted for Trump: 100%
If you wanted to placate all of us that are concerned about the truth, accuracy, and communicating in a clear, meaningful way, when you post your results, you could simply make sure to add "'my portfolio performance, which includes dividend reinvestment, as compared to the DJIA without dividend reinvestment" and proceed to disclose the twofigures.
Otherwise, everyone would assume that you are comparing apples to apples, which you are not doing.
FWIW, if that is too hard, it is fairly easy to look up the DJIA returns including dividend reinvestment.
I hope this helps.
Nah. I have no need to placate any of you. I'll do it as I wish. Bonus that it bothers Sally so much.
If you wanted to placate all of us that are concerned about the truth, accuracy, and communicating in a clear, meaningful way, when you post your results, you could simply make sure to add "'my portfolio performance, which includes dividend reinvestment, as compared to the DJIA without dividend reinvestment" and proceed to disclose the twofigures.
Otherwise, everyone would assume that you are comparing apples to apples, which you are not doing.
FWIW, if that is too hard, it is fairly easy to look up the DJIA returns including dividend reinvestment.
I hope this helps.
Nah. I have no need to placate any of you. I'll do it as I wish. Bonus that it bothers Sally so much.
Let's look at your track record ...
1) You guaranteed that Hillary would beat Trump in 2016.
WRONG
2) You swore that Robert Mueller was coming and Trump was done.
WRONG
3) You said 3,000 times that Kamala Harris would win this year.
WRONG
4) You told us your portfolio is beating the Dow Jones for 2024
WRONG
5) You have told us you have the biggest biceps
WRONG
6) You have told us many times that you are very rich.
WRONG
That is 0-6. I could list some more but heading to the gym.
elevated rates on long end....not really but sorta
economy slipping into recession: not even close. Economy is strong and accelerating.
Bob Elliott @BobEUnlimited The most likely macro scenario by the end of '24 looks like little to no Fed cuts, elevated rates on the long-end, and the economy slipping into recession. 6:20 PM · Apr 3, 2024 · 284.7K Views
Nah. I have no need to placate any of you. I'll do it as I wish. Bonus that it bothers Sally so much.
Let's look at your track record ...
1) You guaranteed that Hillary would beat Trump in 2016.
WRONG
2) You swore that Robert Mueller was coming and Trump was done.
WRONG
3) You said 3,000 times that Kamala Harris would win this year.
WRONG
4) You told us your portfolio is beating the Dow Jones for 2024
WRONG
5) You have told us you have the biggest biceps
WRONG
6) You have told us many times that you are very rich.
WRONG
That is 0-6. I could list some more but heading to the gym.
1) I said Trump couldn't cheat against Hillary, and he cheated. RIGHT
2) Mueller did indeed come, however, we have now entered a lawless environment for Presidents and it appears that Trump will not be held accountable even though he should be, so Half and Half on that one.
3) I said Harris would win. She did not. WRONG
4) I am beating the Dow for 2024. RIGHT
5) I have NEVER said I had the "biggest" biceps, only that they are HUGE. RIGHT
6) I have never said "very rich" ever. I use the term "wealthy." This is something that is relative. I am not wealthy compared to Elon Musk. Most people though, including you, would consider me wealthy if I told you my net worth. RIGHT So, 4.5 out of 6.
Help us build the best running shoe review site for a chance to win a LetsRun t-shirt.Help us build the best running shoe review site for a chance to win one of 10 LetsRun t-shirts.