Down goes the Dow

$2.71 now. Can't wait for Genlser to leave on Jan 20th.

Or Seneca in Latin!

Let's see who can get this reference.

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Or Kinnock in Pig Latin.

I'll bite.

Not to give it away (in case you want to build the suspense), but does it involve a well known TV show from early 60's?

If you want, I can just say it...

Subliminal message?

Good one! Totally unintended, but confirms what I was thinking.

ha no way not even close. Miserable prediction.

By Lewis Krauskopf
NEW YORK (Reuters) - The Federal Reserve will cut rates more aggressively than markets are currently pricing in as a mild U.S. recession arrives in the first half of next year, economists at Deutsche Bank projected on Monday.
In an outlook report, the Deutsche Bank economists projected 175 basis points in rate cuts in 2024.

November 27, 2023

let's just say it's not 100% accurate anymore.

the economy is accelerating.

this guy.

David Rosenberg
@EconguyRosie
Chicago PMI at 35.4 has been consistent with recession 100% of the time in the past. Those who threw in the towel on the call will be picking it up before too long, as they did in 1990, 2001 and 2008.

3:33 PM · May 31, 2024
·
434.5K
Views

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It's a cookbook!

en.wikipedia.org

To Serve Man (The Twilight Zone)

"To Serve Man" is the 24th episode of the third season of the anthology series The Twilight Zone, and the 89th overall. It originally aired on March 2, 1962, on CBS. Based on Damon Knight's 1950 short story of the same title,...

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Feels like the political world is spinning out of control. But the economic world is steady as a rock.

makes you wonder if we’re in a new era where economics are more shielded from politics than before.

russia

ukraine

germany

france

georgia

south korea

syria

israel

lebanon

gaza

usa

all in various stages of tumult.

did you know USA warplanes killed dozens of Iranian troops in Syria today? Anyone care?

But vix is rock bottom 13. No fear.

another approach is to say holy cow the real us economy must be ripping and roaring, to keep stocks this strong with chaos unfolding.

Nope! There is no correct or incorrect here. I can (and will) compre my annual returns against ANYTHING I like. This is not a contest with rules. I can do as I please. You can decide that my comparison is meaningless, but it is not "incorrect."

Regarding that, as of last night's close:

Dow YTD: UP 18.82%

Flagpole YTD: UP 20.20%

Percentage of people who are stupid who voted for Trump: 100%

If you wanted to placate all of us that are concerned about the truth, accuracy, and communicating in a clear, meaningful way, when you post your results, you could simply make sure to add "'my portfolio performance, which includes dividend reinvestment, as compared to the DJIA without dividend reinvestment" and proceed to disclose the twofigures.

Otherwise, everyone would assume that you are comparing apples to apples, which you are not doing.

FWIW, if that is too hard, it is fairly easy to look up the DJIA returns including dividend reinvestment.

I hope this helps.

Seattle, why bother? He admits to using any number he damn well decides to use. It is his prerogative to use whatever calculation he decides to use. It is like discussing something with a 12-year-old. Futile.

Your patience is commendable.

similarly, the german stock market apparently did fine in 1939, 1940, 1941 despite having much of the world literally fighting its nation.

Until the battle of stalingrad. Then the German stock market let's say...lost its teflon.

I suppose if we start nosing over into recession the stock market would tank more than even usual. nosebleed valuations, market concentration, huge debts, political awfulness etc. All the problems under the rug would be exposed and suddenly matter .

But in the meantime the economy is roaring.

turns out that the reports of US jets bombing Iranian troops in Syria are unconfirmed. Which is why newspapers apparently aren't reporting it. There are videos of A-10s... but I suppose they could be fake or from some other war.

All I can figure is the markets are deeply tied to what's happening with interest rates, and as such, we are well into the easing phase, and the markets are loving it. This may be eclipsing all the other concerns, for the moment.