Tom Lee has been getting a lot of predictions correct.
SPX +6% in November
Post See new posts Conversation Seth Golden @SethCL Fundstrat's Tom Lee Regardless of what happens here in October 🎃, a November rally is extremely probable, and more often than not erases the October weakness.
tell us in a rational way why you count dividends as returns in your own performance
but you don't count dividends as returns in your benchmark.
or just tell us that you are sometimes willfully irrational and we should take that into account when reading your posts.
There could be many reasons.
1) I CHOOSE to reinvest my dividends but don't have to, so I get credit for that.
2) Not all of my holdings give dividends, so seems fair.
3) I just like it that way.
4) I do it to bother all of you...and rest assured, I will continue to do it that way.
5) None of this really matters to me as what I really only care about is how much I've made, and I find it hilarious that some of you have hooked on to this measuring stick of mine when I don't even really care about it.
6) It is part of a 9-step process that can not be broken, or all hippos on Earth will turn into butterflies.
FP, Yes you can measure your returns in any way you choose, but comparisons by their very nature assume consistent metrics. You insist on using a dissimilar metric from that of the DJIA. Your portfolio assumes dividend reinvestment in the calculation and the form of the DJIA index you compare it to DOES NOT.
It is this simple, for the purposes of comparing race times, everyone agrees to use Gun Time, but you insist on using Chip Time. And it is not a fair comparison for that reason. If you want to keep using your method, you should make it clear every single time that you note the comparison that you are not making an accurate(equal) comparison and why. To hide this fact is disingenuous to say the least.
It is easy to get the Total Return (included Dividend reinvestment) by simply googling Total Return DJIA, click YTD time frame, and divide ending number by the Jan.1 number. I just did it and it is in fact 21%.
So, (and understanding that I don't really care), if all things have to be equal, then shouldn't ALL of my stocks be giving a dividend in your desired scenario? They don't. So, I decide to measure against the Dow as I always have. I believe this is fair when fairness is considered, BUT, I don't really care about perceived fairness. I can look at my results and rate them against anything I wish. It is beyond hilarious that any of you care. I couldn't care less what any of you do with your stocks. I DO think that some of what some of you do is silly and a waste of time and effort, but I couldn't care less that you do it.
Although Flagpole has a methodist background, he comes across more Woodrow Wilson (presbyterian) than John Wesley. This H.L. Mencken quote from Puritanism As a Literary Force describes him well; "his unmatchable intolerance of opposition, his unbreakable belief in his own bleak and narrow views, his savage cruelty of attack, ...—these things have put an almost unbearable burden upon the exchange of ideas in the United States"
Lake Flagpole: “where all the women are strong, all the men are good-looking, all the children are above average, and all your investments beat the Dow.”
That's a reference that most here will not get...not even when eating their Powdermilk Biscuits.
tell us in a rational way why you count dividends as returns in your own performance
but you don't count dividends as returns in your benchmark.
or just tell us that you are sometimes willfully irrational and we should take that into account when reading your posts.
There could be many reasons.
1) I CHOOSE to reinvest my dividends but don't have to, so I get credit for that.
2) Not all of my holdings give dividends, so seems fair.
3) I just like it that way.
4) I do it to bother all of you...and rest assured, I will continue to do it that way.
5) None of this really matters to me as what I really only care about is how much I've made, and I find it hilarious that some of you have hooked on to this measuring stick of mine when I don't even really care about it.
6) It is part of a 9-step process that can not be broken, or all hippos on Earth will turn into butterflies.
Your credibility is out the window. You have been telling us for so long how you have beaten the Dow Jones index like 32 out of 33 years. But you haven't been calculating the Dow Jones total return correctly for each year. It is like telling everyone your 5K PR is 14:58 when it was actually only a 3 mile course. Whether you reinvest your dividends is a moot point. You are comparing your portfolio performance against the Dow's performance. You got caught and will never live this down just as you told us that Hillary would win 5,000 times, that Mueller was coming 10,000 times and that Harris would win. You are pretty much wrong on everything. I bet you have tiny biceps as well and $50,000 in retirement savings.
FP, Yes you can measure your returns in any way you choose, but comparisons by their very nature assume consistent metrics. You insist on using a dissimilar metric from that of the DJIA. Your portfolio assumes dividend reinvestment in the calculation and the form of the DJIA index you compare it to DOES NOT.
It is this simple, for the purposes of comparing race times, everyone agrees to use Gun Time, but you insist on using Chip Time. And it is not a fair comparison for that reason. If you want to keep using your method, you should make it clear every single time that you note the comparison that you are not making an accurate(equal) comparison and why. To hide this fact is disingenuous to say the least.
It is easy to get the Total Return (included Dividend reinvestment) by simply googling Total Return DJIA, click YTD time frame, and divide ending number by the Jan.1 number. I just did it and it is in fact 21%.
So, (and understanding that I don't really care), if all things have to be equal, then shouldn't ALL of my stocks be giving a dividend in your desired scenario? They don't. So, I decide to measure against the Dow as I always have. I believe this is fair when fairness is considered, BUT, I don't really care about perceived fairness. I can look at my results and rate them against anything I wish. It is beyond hilarious that any of you care. I couldn't care less what any of you do with your stocks. I DO think that some of what some of you do is silly and a waste of time and effort, but I couldn't care less that you do it.
Who cares that maybe all of your stocks don't give a dividend. Not all stocks in the Dow give a dividend either. You should be comparing your portfolio (including dividends) against the Dow (including dividends). You are talking nonsense now.
1) I CHOOSE to reinvest my dividends but don't have to, so I get credit for that.
2) Not all of my holdings give dividends, so seems fair.
3) I just like it that way.
4) I do it to bother all of you...and rest assured, I will continue to do it that way.
5) None of this really matters to me as what I really only care about is how much I've made, and I find it hilarious that some of you have hooked on to this measuring stick of mine when I don't even really care about it.
6) It is part of a 9-step process that can not be broken, or all hippos on Earth will turn into butterflies.
Your credibility is out the window. You have been telling us for so long how you have beaten the Dow Jones index like 32 out of 33 years. But you haven't been calculating the Dow Jones total return correctly for each year. It is like telling everyone your 5K PR is 14:58 when it was actually only a 3 mile course. Whether you reinvest your dividends is a moot point. You are comparing your portfolio performance against the Dow's performance. You got caught and will never live this down just as you told us that Hillary would win 5,000 times, that Mueller was coming 10,000 times and that Harris would win. You are pretty much wrong on everything. I bet you have tiny biceps as well and $50,000 in retirement savings.
1) I care not about perceived credibility.
2) You have the years wrong again...of course you do.
3) Dow YTD UP 19.16%. That statement is not incorrect.
4) My 5K PR was run on a track.
5) I got caught NOT!
6) I have HUGE biceps. How could I participate in HUGE Biceps competitions if they were tiny? You didn't think that through, brother!
7) $50,000 in retirement savings? Um...ok.
8) Trump won in 2016, but he cheated, and I said he couldn't cheat.
9) Mueller DID come, but unfortunately the rule of law has been destroyed by Trump and this current Supreme Court. If you want to say I was wrong there, then ok (though I disagree), but Mueller did come and Trump was lined up to receive his punishment. We are now a lawless country.
So, (and understanding that I don't really care), if all things have to be equal, then shouldn't ALL of my stocks be giving a dividend in your desired scenario? They don't. So, I decide to measure against the Dow as I always have. I believe this is fair when fairness is considered, BUT, I don't really care about perceived fairness. I can look at my results and rate them against anything I wish. It is beyond hilarious that any of you care. I couldn't care less what any of you do with your stocks. I DO think that some of what some of you do is silly and a waste of time and effort, but I couldn't care less that you do it.
Who cares that maybe all of your stocks don't give a dividend. Not all stocks in the Dow give a dividend either. You should be comparing your portfolio (including dividends) against the Dow (including dividends). You are talking nonsense now.
Um...NOPE! I can compare my returns against anything I like. I think I will add comparing my returns to percentage of people who are stupid who voted for Trump. There, I am guaranteed to lose, so maybe that will make you happy.
Dow YTD: UP 19.16%
Flagpole YTD: UP 19.36%
Percentage of people who are stupid who voted for Trump: 100%
Who cares that maybe all of your stocks don't give a dividend. Not all stocks in the Dow give a dividend either. You should be comparing your portfolio (including dividends) against the Dow (including dividends). You are talking nonsense now.
Um...NOPE! I can compare my returns against anything I like. I think I will add comparing my returns to percentage of people who are stupid who voted for Trump. There, I am guaranteed to lose, so maybe that will make you happy.
Dow YTD: UP 19.16%
Flagpole YTD: UP 19.36%
Percentage of people who are stupid who voted for Trump: 100%
Ah yes, Bill Ackman is so stupid. Elon Musk is so stupid. Vance and Cruz are so stupid.
Um...NOPE! I can compare my returns against anything I like. I think I will add comparing my returns to percentage of people who are stupid who voted for Trump. There, I am guaranteed to lose, so maybe that will make you happy.
Dow YTD: UP 19.16%
Flagpole YTD: UP 19.36%
Percentage of people who are stupid who voted for Trump: 100%
Ah yes, Bill Ackman is so stupid. Elon Musk is so stupid. Vance and Cruz are so stupid.
Stupid is as stupid does. Yes, all of them are stupid. Absolute morons, all of them.
Lake Flagpole: “where all the women are strong, all the men are good-looking, all the children are above average, and all your investments beat the Dow.”
That's a reference that most here will not get...not even when eating their Powdermilk Biscuits.
Yes, you are correct. I forget I am probably a decade older than you. At least I wasn’t referencing H.L. Mencken. Several here will be looking up on Urban Dictionary.
Speaking of 80s references...this economy apparently goes to 11. Hello Cleveland!
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2024 is 3.2 percent on December 2, up from 2.7 percent on November 27.
Speaking of 80s references...this economy apparently goes to 11. Hello Cleveland!
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2024 is 3.2 percent on December 2, up from 2.7 percent on November 27.
Okay, granted, true enough. But to run with the musical analogies, sure hope this won't turn out to be The Day the Music Died.
Speaking of 80s references...this economy apparently goes to 11. Hello Cleveland!
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2024 is 3.2 percent on December 2, up from 2.7 percent on November 27.
Okay, granted, true enough. But to run with the musical analogies, sure hope this won't turn out to be The Day the Music Died.
I do believe that rock and roll can save my mortal soul
That's a reference that most here will not get...not even when eating their Powdermilk Biscuits.
Yes, you are correct. I forget I am probably a decade older than you. At least I wasn’t referencing H.L. Mencken. Several here will be looking up on Urban Dictionary.
Mencken has some good ones, though he didn't have much faith in democracy:
“When a candidate for public office faces the voters he does not face men of sense; he faces a mob of men whose chief distinguishing mark is the fact that they are quite incapable of weighing ideas, or even of comprehending any save the most elemental — men whose whole thinking is done in terms of emotion, and whose dominant emotion is dread of what they cannot understand. So confronted, the candidate must either bark with the pack or be lost... All the odds are on the man who is, intrinsically, the most devious and mediocre — the man who can most adeptly disperse the notion that his mind is a virtual vacuum. The Presidency tends, year by year, to go to such men. As democracy is perfected, the office represents, more and more closely, the inner soul of the people. We move toward a lofty ideal. On some great and glorious day the plain folks of the land will reach their heart's desire at last, and the White House will be adorned by a downright moron.”
This post was edited 58 seconds after it was posted.
“All the odds are on the man who is, intrinsically, the most devious and mediocre — the man who can most adeptly disperse the notion that his mind is a virtual vacuum. The Presidency tends, year by year, to go to such men.”
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