When talking about off-scores and ABP, no individual blood value can rightly be called "positive" or "negative", but rather "suspicious" and "unsuspicious", or maybe "non suspicious". To avoid adding confusion, I will use your terms as appropriate.According to the ABP process, to actually suspect doping, an expert must look at the profile formed by many blood values over time, and make an expert determination that the profile is normal or abnormal. The athlete is allowed to offer potential non-doping explanations for any suspicious values, or fluctuations, which the expert can evaluate, and accept, or reject, and that forms part of the expert conclusion. (To "Wrong.", that's not opinion/spin/propaganda, but a fundamental part of the process). If an ABP qualified expert had actually made an abnormal profile determination (including evaluating Paula's explanations), and the Sunday Times article reported that determination, rather than providing their own non-expert summary analysis of the values, then this public discussion would make more sense to me. But this determination cannot be made alone by non-expert Sunday Times reporters, and/or non-expert anonymous forum dwellers.The 3 "suspicious" values we talk about were chosen by the Sunday Times. It's not "horribly unlucky" that they might be "false positives", but rather a direct consequence of the criteria used by the Sunday Times to publish only "suspicious" values. I'm not sure how "false negatives" fit in this discussion. A "suspicious" value cannot be a "false negative", because it is not "negative". It can only be a (true or false) "positive". The only question, which remains unaddressed by any ABP expert, is if they are truly suspicious for doping reasons, or falsely suspicious for non-doping reasons. Other "unsuspicious" values might be candidates for "false negatives", but that really seems to belong to a different discussion."rjm33" talked a lot about another 4th value, the 2003 low value recorded in Paula's book, but this one was not highlighted by the Sunday Times, nor Ashenden/Parisotto as "suspicious", as it is well below the threshold of suspicion. Do you think this one is a "false negative"? I think this is an "unsuspicious value" with a large error. With or without the error, it would be a "true negative". "rjm33"'s concern was more the radical change between that value and the other 2003 "suspicious" value. It would carry more weight if an ABP expert concluded that the data was reliable for that purpose, and that the radical change is therefore abnormal.
preciously jaded wrote:
rekrunner wrote:We have many non-doping explanations arising from the less stringent (more variable) pre-2009 processes for blood collecting, transporting, and analysing procedures.
And how horribly unlucky it is that all of these different explanations ended up influencing a false positive rather than a false negative result ....