California teams are faster this year than last year. This is a really good performance for the teams this year. California coaches are getting better.
Average speed rating for top 5 California teams at Woodbridge last year -
Mira Costa: 170.8 (8th) Matilda Torres: 169.0 (9th) Glendora: 169.2 (11th) Great Oak: 168.4 (12th) Mountain View: 167.6
Not really, you left out 2 of top 3 Cal teams from last year, ran in earlier races. Last year's team times:
1 Menlo 1:13:14.0 2 Mira Costa 1:13:32.4 3 Oaks Christian 1:13:56.4 4 Matilda Torres 1:13:57.3 5 Glendora 1:13:57.4 6 Martin Luther King 1:14:00.2 7 Great Oak 1:14:10.1
This Year:
1 Jesuit 1:12:33.9 2 Redondo Union 1:13:40.8 3 Woodbridge 1:13:46.4 4 Mira Costa 1:13:56.4 5 Mountain View (Mt View) 1:14:18.3 6 San Clemente 1:14:32.8 7 Martin Luther King 1:14:33.4
Depth wise, last year 16 teams were at 1:50:00 or better, this year only 13.
My thoughts remain the same as before Woodbridge. Jesuit should be better than any team last year, but after that, it will be about the same as last year. But every other region is improving.
Also, Jesuit, who ended up as the #1 California team last year, wasn’t at Woodbridge last year
How often do the performances at Woodbridge line up well to the eventual performances at Clovis? Aren't the courses/weather different enough that a few point differences in speed ratings at Woodbridge night not mean all that much to results when it matters?
I'm not sure what you asking. If you are asking just about speed ratings, usually the speed ratings get higher as the season progresses. I even think speed ratings early on have some downward bias because the runner's current level (the anchor points) aren't that well known yet. But I would do the same thing. Most runners will have a higher speed rating at Clovis, assuming they are healthy and have a decent race.
If you are asking about the teams, Woodbridge has historically not been a very good predictor of the order of the top California teams at the end of year. Last year, Beckman was the 14th California team at Woodbridge, and 26th overall. Then at Clovis they were the #1 team, including beating Crater which was the #3 team at Woodbridge. They were the 7th fastest school all-time at Woodward Park (schools like Newbury Park have multiple results that are better).
That said, the best part of Woodbridge is that there are so many teams running, and they are generally giving a full effort, you can get a much better sense of where teams/individuals are relative to each other, in particular emerging teams and runners that have made a significant jump in their level. **I pay more attention to unexpectedly good results than the bad results.** The good results usually hold up, and many of the bad results are simply bad days or teams missing runners.
How often do the performances at Woodbridge line up well to the eventual performances at Clovis? Aren't the courses/weather different enough that a few point differences in speed ratings at Woodbridge night not mean all that much to results when it matters?
I'm not sure what you asking. If you are asking just about speed ratings, usually the speed ratings get higher as the season progresses.
Our speed ratings go up a lot but other regions stay the same.
How often do the performances at Woodbridge line up well to the eventual performances at Clovis? Aren't the courses/weather different enough that a few point differences in speed ratings at Woodbridge night not mean all that much to results when it matters?
I'm not sure what you asking. If you are asking just about speed ratings, usually the speed ratings get higher as the season progresses. I even think speed ratings early on have some downward bias because the runner's current level (the anchor points) aren't that well known yet. But I would do the same thing. Most runners will have a higher speed rating at Clovis, assuming they are healthy and have a decent race.
If you are asking about the teams, Woodbridge has historically not been a very good predictor of the order of the top California teams at the end of year. Last year, Beckman was the 14th California team at Woodbridge, and 26th overall. Then at Clovis they were the #1 team, including beating Crater which was the #3 team at Woodbridge. They were the 7th fastest school all-time at Woodward Park (schools like Newbury Park have multiple results that are better).
That said, the best part of Woodbridge is that there are so many teams running, and they are generally giving a full effort, you can get a much better sense of where teams/individuals are relative to each other, in particular emerging teams and runners that have made a significant jump in their level. **I pay more attention to unexpectedly good results than the bad results.** The good results usually hold up, and many of the bad results are simply bad days or teams missing runners.
I guess my question is, why do people analyze this meet in such detail, as based on your facts, any one of the top 26 teams might be the best come the state meet at Clovis. Sure opening day of the MLB baseball season will give you more data points than you otherwise have at that point, but analyzing the fine details of the first game probably isn't worth it if any of the best playing 26 teams that day might be the world series champion. Just wait until there are more data points to think too much about it. Basically, my point is that it's still way too early to be predicting the outcome.
I'm not sure what you asking. If you are asking just about speed ratings, usually the speed ratings get higher as the season progresses. I even think speed ratings early on have some downward bias because the runner's current level (the anchor points) aren't that well known yet. But I would do the same thing. Most runners will have a higher speed rating at Clovis, assuming they are healthy and have a decent race.
If you are asking about the teams, Woodbridge has historically not been a very good predictor of the order of the top California teams at the end of year. Last year, Beckman was the 14th California team at Woodbridge, and 26th overall. Then at Clovis they were the #1 team, including beating Crater which was the #3 team at Woodbridge. They were the 7th fastest school all-time at Woodward Park (schools like Newbury Park have multiple results that are better).
That said, the best part of Woodbridge is that there are so many teams running, and they are generally giving a full effort, you can get a much better sense of where teams/individuals are relative to each other, in particular emerging teams and runners that have made a significant jump in their level. **I pay more attention to unexpectedly good results than the bad results.** The good results usually hold up, and many of the bad results are simply bad days or teams missing runners.
I guess my question is, why do people analyze this meet in such detail, as based on your facts, any one of the top 26 teams might be the best come the state meet at Clovis. Sure opening day of the MLB baseball season will give you more data points than you otherwise have at that point, but analyzing the fine details of the first game probably isn't worth it if any of the best playing 26 teams that day might be the world series champion. Just wait until there are more data points to think too much about it. Basically, my point is that it's still way too early to be predicting the outcome.
Because it's interesting? It has top out of state competition and all the best California teams in a road race. It's basically it's own championship style race.
Woodbridge and State are the two most interesting races in California. However, the state meet doesn't have teams like Herriman, etc.
Strongly disagree, Clovis Invitational is the big meet in Ca. Woodbridge is a track meet at night and yes it's cool for mostly So CAL teams. Clovis is run on the State meet course & gets teams from all over the state. Great mid season preview of where your team is.
Woodbridge is part of the Rich Gonzalez socal propaganda machine.
I'm not sure what you asking. If you are asking just about speed ratings, usually the speed ratings get higher as the season progresses. I even think speed ratings early on have some downward bias because the runner's current level (the anchor points) aren't that well known yet. But I would do the same thing. Most runners will have a higher speed rating at Clovis, assuming they are healthy and have a decent race.
If you are asking about the teams, Woodbridge has historically not been a very good predictor of the order of the top California teams at the end of year. Last year, Beckman was the 14th California team at Woodbridge, and 26th overall. Then at Clovis they were the #1 team, including beating Crater which was the #3 team at Woodbridge. They were the 7th fastest school all-time at Woodward Park (schools like Newbury Park have multiple results that are better).
That said, the best part of Woodbridge is that there are so many teams running, and they are generally giving a full effort, you can get a much better sense of where teams/individuals are relative to each other, in particular emerging teams and runners that have made a significant jump in their level. **I pay more attention to unexpectedly good results than the bad results.** The good results usually hold up, and many of the bad results are simply bad days or teams missing runners.
I guess my question is, why do people analyze this meet in such detail, as based on your facts, any one of the top 26 teams might be the best come the state meet at Clovis. Sure opening day of the MLB baseball season will give you more data points than you otherwise have at that point, but analyzing the fine details of the first game probably isn't worth it if any of the best playing 26 teams that day might be the world series champion. Just wait until there are more data points to think too much about it. Basically, my point is that it's still way too early to be predicting the outcome.
>>why do people analyze this meet in such detail
Because high school runners, particularly boys, can improve a lot between end of track season and now, including some unexpected big jumps. There have been earlier XC meets, but usually only with a few strong teams, and you are never sure if those are all out efforts. This meet matches up not only the top Cal teams (based on my relative strength list, the entire Cal top 10 was there which is very rare) but also a chance to see how Cal teams match up against top out of state teams (even more rare). Because of that, you can trust nearly everyone is giving an all-out effort. This gives a pretty good snapshot of where things are right now. But yes, things will change a lot between now and Clovis, and even more the state champs. But the fact that it changes throughout the year makes it fun, and not a reason to ignore the early results.
In my opinion, the biggest mistake people make looking Woodbridge results is how they sometimes interpret the team results as "the new rankings". If you want to understand how this affects the rankings, you do need to "analyze this meet in detail". As an example, mentioned above is that Beckman was missing 2 of their big 4. Considering that their 7th man still ran 15:23 it was nice showing of depth for a team that should be strong at the front as well. Mountain View missing a 9:19 guy, making their performance even better than it looked. La Serna probably surprised people as the 11th best team from Cal, but their #1 runner was 6th man, so they are even stronger than appears. And so on. You need to take the data from this meet, and add it to what you already know.
If you don't care to look into that level of detail, then yes on the surface it is early data that doesn't seem to be that predictive of teams. But for the individuals, those that ran very well here generally remain very good all year.
Who has the Woodbridge individual speed ratings? I’m curious to see how their convert to potential times at Woodward
The Speed Ratings for Woodbridge this year are exactly the same as the state meet last year, if you add 1 minute to the Woodbridge time. Top Cal runners at Woodbridge this year: 5 Aidan Antonio 11 Woodbridge (SS) 14:06.3 185.90 186 6 Blake Bay 11 Fresno Christian (CS) 14:06.8 185.73 186 7 Maximo Zavaleta 12 ML King (SS) 14:07.1 185.63 186
Equivalent speed ratings at last years state meet merge: 25 SAGIRAJU, Arrin 12 Dougherty Valley -NC-1 15:06.2 185.93 186 26 SANDERS, Luke 12 Buchanan -C-1 15:06.5 185.83 186 27 YODER, Christian 12 Oaks Christian -S-4 15:07.5 185.50 186
In my estimation, Woodward times are rated too high now. They need to be lowered because of better shoes and because the rest of nation is better than a decade ago. A 15:06 used to mean that runner likely could qualify for FootLocker finals. Now 15:06 gets you 25th place at the Cal state meet merge, and no shot at FootLocker finals. They have lowered them 2 points in the last couple of years, but I think it needs to be lowered more than 2 points. In 2022, Lex Young ran a 14:27, but 15:03.9 was the 5th fastest time of the day.
>>Woodbridge is part of the Rich Gonzalez socal propaganda machine.
Tell that to Herriman, Boulder, Bridgeland, Austin Vandegrift and Coeur d'Alene. Like it or not, due to the top out of state teams, it has been a more competitive meet than Clovis for the last few years, and it is a more nationally recognized meet.
But I would agree from just a California team's point of view, and sizing up how they might stack up at the state meet, Clovis is a more important meet.
But it is not one or the other. Most top Cal teams do both. And as a fan, I enjoy them both for what they are.
No California runner so far managed to break Andres Lomeli’s 188 speed rating that he put out at Kim Duyst. I’m pretty sure it’s the fastest speed rating in Cali atm
No California runner so far managed to break Andres Lomeli’s 188 speed rating that he put out at Kim Duyst. I’m pretty sure it’s the fastest speed rating in Cali atm
Could this year’s junior class be faster than this year’s senior class in CA?
Lott and Clovis North is racing at Nike Portland today! Along with Matilda Torres and Mira Costa (I forgot which other CA teams are racing). Mountain View is also going to be at Dessert Twilight tn!
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