Tell me you're a rank amateur without telling me you're a rank amateur.
I'm not going to bother with your misuse of passive and diversify. It seems, this applies to some other poster, I can explain it to you but I can't understand it for you.
Define me in any way you like, but I have invested a TON of money since 1989 and have more money than I will ever need or ever dreamed possible as a result. I have ONLY invested in mutual funds other than when I was forced to have a company match early on by two companies that matched in company stock. Initially (still in my 20s) I had some bonds in there because I was told that was a good idea, but then I got away from them, and now my mutual funds are ONLY stock-containing.
I do not misuse passive and diversified. I have money in mutual funds, and over about the last 10 years, I have just dumped money into them and really done nothing else (passive). I am diversified because I have money in just about every sector of the market...domestic stocks, international stocks, small cap, mid cap, large cap, etc.
Investing is all about setting yourself up for a glorified retirement. In my case, mission accomplished.
You are correct in your assessment, and yet, at the same time, Bessent is probably the best pick so far...shows how big of a Sh!t Show we are in for.
RFK is a good pick. Rubio is a good pick. DOGE, though not a secretary position, is great.
You're insane. Not one good one yet, and RFK Jr. is a full on nutbar. He's a conspiracy theorist and just a plain old idiot. Remember when video captured him walking barefoot into a commercial airplane bathroom? That's not even close to the weirdest thing this guy has done.
back in the summer there was a bad jobs number and a lot of people said 'ok recession time'
but like this poster predicted, it was an abberation and job creation regained its strong momentum. And the fed was right to cut rates, correctly thinking it was an aberration.
Seth Golden @SethCL Dr. Ed Yardeni: The softer labor report is an aberration, heavily impacted by Hurricane Beryl and evidenced in the data This is going to reverse in the coming months, and the Fed knows it.
Post See new posts Conversation Barchart @Barchart JUST IN 🚨: JP Morgan says there will be a 50 bps rate cut in both September and November. What do they know? 🤔
11:37 AM · Aug 2, 2024 · 134.6K Views
This post was edited 34 seconds after it was posted.
I view people with industry experience as better than the so-called “experts” who have a phd. Just look at what happened during covid - the “experts” constantly called for lockdowns and mask mandates. He’s an incredibly accomplished investor. Yellen isn’t terrible. Lisa Cook, on the other hand, is a complete DEI pick. Just like Buttigieg as secretary of transportation.
Bessent is not an accomplished investor.
He had a couple big wins when working for Soros, then went out on his own and had a mediocre to bad record as a portfolio manager. Investors are fleeing his fund. But he looks the part of a Secretary of the Treasury and gave a million dollars to Trump so he got the job. Sad for the country. I'll stick with actual experts rather than mediocre investors with no actual experience who buy their way into government.
"Key Square has experienced a sharp drop in its assets under management to just over $800 million in the first quarter of 2023, according to analysis of public filings by AUM 13f. The macro hedge fund has achieved inconsistent returns since being started almost a decade ago that have seen it post a series of significant losses, including in 2017, 2018, and 2021, according to disclosure from the New York City Police Pensions Fund."
Soros pulled his investments out of Key Square in 2018, according to Reuters.
Here's some interesting background on Bessent. Each day I discover more and more finance people on Bluesky. X under Musk went from I can pi$$ in the town park, it's free speech, to I can pi$$ on your front lawn, it's free speech.
Contrarianism is toxic & is frankly what the soon-to-be-shipwrecked on Wall Street masquerading as the most clever are all about. This is always, always, always true. Pick a contrarian’s brain & you’ll win to learning things....
He had a couple big wins when working for Soros, then went out on his own and had a mediocre to bad record as a portfolio manager. Investors are fleeing his fund. But he looks the part of a Secretary of the Treasury and gave a million dollars to Trump so he got the job. Sad for the country. I'll stick with actual experts rather than mediocre investors with no actual experience who buy their way into government.
"Key Square has experienced a sharp drop in its assets under management to just over $800 million in the first quarter of 2023, according to analysis of public filings by AUM 13f. The macro hedge fund has achieved inconsistent returns since being started almost a decade ago that have seen it post a series of significant losses, including in 2017, 2018, and 2021, according to disclosure from the New York City Police Pensions Fund."
Soros pulled his investments out of Key Square in 2018, according to Reuters.
Here's some interesting background on Bessent. Each day I discover more and more finance people on Bluesky. X under Musk went from I can pi$ in the town park, it's free speech, to I can pi$ on your front lawn, it's free speech.
I used to work for a 100% committed contrarian and can say that I learned a lot about markets...and also learned how unbelievably bad investing is done, because of contrarianism. Smart guys, but terrible investors.
Just agreeing to this part in the blusky thread you posted to with the same sentiment:
keysersoze2024.bsky.social @keysersoze2024.bsky.social · 3d First, & this goes all the way back to Scott’s earliest tenure with Chanos, Scott is a contrarian. Chanos is a famed short seller, a forensic fraud outer, & a very good one. In my experience & seared into my beliefs is an assertion that the contrarians are the true geniuses in the hedge fund world keysersoze2024.bsky.social @keysersoze2024.bsky.social · 3d They’re also, nearly without exception, very bad risk managers. And they are absolutely terrible performers over the long run. The nicest things in this thing of ours - the Manhattan brownstones, the Hamptons estates, the planes - are the dominion of the smartest Delta 1 long investors. keysersoze2024.bsky.social @keysersoze2024.bsky.social Follow Contrarianism is toxic & is frankly what the soon-to-be-shipwrecked on Wall Street masquerading as the most clever are all about. This is always, always, always true. Pick a contrarian’s brain & you’ll win to learning things. But allocate $ to them? Imbroglios w/ the interns is smarter than that.
Not sure if you're aware, FP, but the Dow Jones hasn't been used as a representation of the market as a whole for at least several decades. If you simply bought and held a S&P500 index fund you'd have performed about 40% higher than you have so far this year. Might want to try to learn some basics of finance and investing sometime.
I've discussed this for years, and yes, of course I know that the Dow isn't the best example of the market as a whole. I never said it was. It just IS the thing that I have compared my results against since I started investing in 1989.
I have investments spread out into just about any index you can mention, both foreign and domestic. You can look back at the end of any year and suggest that a person should have been all in in a certain index, but not only do I not need to have done such a thing, I have done more than fine with my passive way of investing since 1989. I know more than enough about finance and investing, thank you very much.
I first started learning about investing in 2012 when I graduated from undergrad and read a single book on personal finance. It showed very clearly that simply buying a broad market index fund (SPY, VFIAX, etc) was the best strategy for 99.9% of people. The fact someone like me could understand stuff like this at age 23 after reading a single book on finance better than you shows you have a very poor understanding of finance and investing, FP. This is emphasized by you coming on here and somehow thinking it's a brag to show you hugely underperformed the market and did worse than anyone who simply robo-invested all year. Anyone who significantly underperforms the S&P 500 is a downright fool of an investor. Not trying to attack you on this. Just stating the facts.
Still think we'll see a decline of more than 10% from here at some point in the next six months, probably after the excitement and exuberance of the election wears off. All metrics and models out there are showing the market is overbought... A return to the mean or near mean is going to happen at some point.
I've discussed this for years, and yes, of course I know that the Dow isn't the best example of the market as a whole. I never said it was. It just IS the thing that I have compared my results against since I started investing in 1989.
I have investments spread out into just about any index you can mention, both foreign and domestic. You can look back at the end of any year and suggest that a person should have been all in in a certain index, but not only do I not need to have done such a thing, I have done more than fine with my passive way of investing since 1989. I know more than enough about finance and investing, thank you very much.
Anyone who significantly underperforms the S&P 500 is a downright fool of an investor. Not trying to attack you on this. Just stating the facts.
this is not true.
few people should have 100% stock portfolios.
most, and virtually everyone over 50, needs to temper the risk of stocks in their portfolios.
Usually by owning bonds, which are usually much more stable than stocks, but do not return as much.
So almost everyone over 50 underperforms the SP500, in order to keep their nest eggs safer.
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