Down goes the Dow

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Andrew Left Wasn’t Short for Long - Bloomberg

archived 26 Jul 2024 18:13:38 UTC

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Although! Weirdly the SEC does not get into this, but Cronos closed at
$12.74 per share on Aug. 29, 2018, the day before Left’s report. It
closed at $9.12 on Aug. 30, after the report came out, a 28% drop. It
then rallied, getting as high as $23.70 in March 2019. But then it
mostly went down. It hit Left’s $3.50 price target in early 2022, and
closed at $2.42 yesterday. It has never reported an operating profit. It
took a while, and many readers who shorted the stock presumably lost
money, but was Left … right?

In general the SEC does not pay much attention to that question. Maybe it
is not important? In the government’s telling, Left lied about a lot of
stuff — his independence, his credentials, how he got paid, and most
crucially whether he was still long or short the stocks he was writing
about — that probably was material
to his readers, and if he had been more honest about those things he
might have moved the stocks less. He made money through dishonesty, the
government alleges, and that’s probably enough for their case.
But the government says less about the central things he said to the public: “This stock is good” and “that stock is bad.”3 If he believed those things based on real research, and was mostly correct, then he would have a pretty good argument that it wasn’t really
fraud, even if he was dishonest about his own positions and cynical
about his audience. If he was just making stuff up to manipulate stocks,
on the other hand, there’s not much defense.

someone's partying like it's February of 2000.

I mean I'm happy for you, but those of us who were around in the tech bubble would urge you to take profits and not get greedy or think you are permanently good at this.

Ghost of Igloi, what are your thoughts of BTC (Bitcoin) about to cross over $100k USD?

Bitcoin has always seemed crazy to me. Like believing a male can change his gender. I am in the MSTR leverage short not because of Citron, just the concept of the “company” seems bizarre. Like the Hollywood actress that transitioned two of her children. What are the odds that someone in this family is mentally ill? In the case of MSTR Herb Greenberg commented today “sounds like a pyramid built atop a pyramid!” What are the odds that both Bitcoin and Micro Strategy are pyramid schemes? Or, maybe I am just suffering from asset mania dysphoria.

Thanks. And I agree it’s good to be cautious and take profit. I don’t have the stats off the top of my head but for my crypto I’ve often taken profit while allowing it to grow above my base amount in total value. So that’s the best of both worlds for me - I still have the large opportunities for growth while getting guaranteed profit as well.
let’s say I have $1 million in crypto and pay 0 in taxes (I wish) - when it’d grow to 1.2 million I’d probably take out roughly 60% so I’d have 1.08 of crypto and 120k

heh

from the head of equities at WisdomTree

this poster mocked the idea that the Fed thought unemployment would be 4.1% at end of 2024.

Guess what...it was exactly 4.1% in October.

Massive fail on the agipmeter.

Jeff Weniger
@JeffWeniger
The Employment subcomponent of ISM Services was an absolute stinker. Now at 43.3%, this is where it was in JUNE 2008. The Fed is out there saying 4.1% unemployment for 2024. No, no, no, no, Fed, you will be wrong. Up we go on unemployment.

2:34 PM · Jan 5, 2024
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Junk bond spreads lowest except for during the dot com bubble and just before the great financial crisis. Everything seemed great then too. Things change. We all know that stocks are priced for perfection and we also know that the first half of 2025 is going to be chaotic with a federal government convinced that its best goal is to destroy itself and damage the economy. Could cause some er shock waves.

fred.stlouisfed.org

ICE BofA US High Yield Index Option-Adjusted Spread

ICE BofA US High Yield Index Option-Adjusted Spread

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I just bought 300 shares of DJT because I think it'll have a good chance to rise a lot. Not so much because I think the fundamentals are great, at all, but because if the Saudis (for example) want something from Trump, I think the best way for them to do that is by having their sovereign wealth fund spend hundreds of millions there, basically as the closest way to just give $ to Trump.

https://x.com/vivekgramaswamy/status/1860381153401733554?s=61W

https://x.com/kobeissiletter/status/1860724860466405805?s=61

you have the chance to put yo'money where your mouth is

buy SMST...it's a 2x short on MSTR.

Owning that would get your adrenaline rushing!

Previous page 10:40 am EST 11/22/2024

“Bought the leveraged short on MSTR a few minutes ago. Bitcoin likely headed to $100k, but MSTR looks pretty toppy.“

outstanding.

so is your adrenaline rushing?

I'd be glued to every tick if I owned that thing.

No, small position. I could buy more whether it goes up or down.

whoa wicked bad call:

2024 year to date:

Intermediate term treasuries: 0%

SP500: +26%

Seth Golden
@SethCL
BofA Michael Hartnett:
"Never before have Treasuries fallen 3 consecutive years... we believe bonds will OUTPERFORM in 2024."

9:30 AM · Nov 12, 2023
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