Random YTD against the Dow check-in (I have no idea what it is yet):
Dow YTD: UP 15.12%
Flagpole YTD: UP 16.87%
So, kind of close. Either one is great on the year.
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30
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fjb wrote:
Also, Nvidia earnings are at 5 today. Should be interesting to see
A negative earnings report for NVDA- and the market might have a really bad day. NVDA is up 1,100% in the last 2 years.
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Flagpole wrote:
Random YTD against the Dow check-in (I have no idea what it is yet):
Dow YTD: UP 15.12%
Flagpole YTD: UP 16.87%
So, kind of close. Either one is great on the year.
We are rooting for you, Flagpole. Another beatdown of the Dow by the Flagpole portfolio and you will have beaten the index 35 out of the last 36 years. My calculator doesn't have enough spaces to show the probability of this.
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Sally Vix wrote:
Flagpole wrote:
Random YTD against the Dow check-in (I have no idea what it is yet):
Dow YTD: UP 15.12%
Flagpole YTD: UP 16.87%
So, kind of close. Either one is great on the year.
We are rooting for you, Flagpole. Another beatdown of the Dow by the Flagpole portfolio and you will have beaten the index 35 out of the last 36 years. My calculator doesn't have enough spaces to show the probability of this.
1) I likely will beat the Dow again this year.
2) You don't have the number of years correct...of course you don't.
3) You have zero idea how to figure out the probability of this...absolutely zero.
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fjb wrote:
Also, Nvidia earnings are at 5 today. Should be interesting to see
Conference call is at 5 PM EST. Earnings to be announced well before that, at 4:20 PM.
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Flagpole wrote:
Sally Vix wrote:
We are rooting for you, Flagpole. Another beatdown of the Dow by the Flagpole portfolio and you will have beaten the index 35 out of the last 36 years. My calculator doesn't have enough spaces to show the probability of this.
1) I likely will beat the Dow again this year.
2) You don't have the number of years correct...of course you don't.
3) You have zero idea how to figure out the probability of this...absolutely zero.
The probability of your portfolio beating the Dow in one year is likely 1/2. About 50%. They are closely aligned.
To beat it 34 out of 35 years is:
1/2 X 1/2 x 1/2 ... to 35. I don't have a calculator with me but maybe 1 in 12 billion.
Flagpole, come on dude.
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agip wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Last week an office building purchased in 2017 for $121 million sold for $60 million. Long duration Treasury bonds lost a similar amount during that period. Stocks are an asset of similar duration at 20-30 years. I have seen nothing that deters me from believing stocks will suffer a similar fate, perhaps worse. I have said, and I continue to believe 2,300, or the Covid low, is a near certainty. And the 3/2000 1,550 high, and the 1,575 10/2007 high are likely lows in a historic bear market, which I do expect.
Most posters here are quick to attack anyone that has a sober market view. Yet they are willing to give a pass to the Fed with their $Trillion balance sheet losses, and culpability in the inflation that hurts average Americans. Why, because the Fed seemingly buttered the investor’s bread? The lunacy of Government tax policy and spending fuels real wars, culture wars, corporate largesse, illegal immigration, and handouts to those that refuse personal responsibility . None of this madness comes with benign ending for the glamorous stock market. Sorry.
DGTD Internal Staff Prediction Check!
On 11/20/23 Igy said SPX 2,300 was a near certainty.
We're now at SPX 5,944
We would need a 61% decline to get to Igy's prediction.
Igy was less certain but also suggested SPX 1,550 was likely, which would now be a 73% decline.
I'm going to declare Igy wrong...although technically he did not supply a date so the bet goes on.
page 3189, 11/20/2023
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SP500 +32% since this tweet noting its historically high valuations.
Valuation is not a great timing device. Seems smart at the time though.
Barchart
@Barchart
BREAKING 🚨: U.S. Stock Valuations
Stocks are overvalued on 10 out of 10 metrics according to Societe Generale10:01 PM · Nov 21, 2023
·
127.9K
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Ghost of Igloi wrote:
agip wrote:
DGTD Internal Staff Prediction Check!
On 11/20/23 Igy said SPX 2,300 was a near certainty.
We're now at SPX 5,944
We would need a 61% decline to get to Igy's prediction.
Igy was less certain but also suggested SPX 1,550 was likely, which would now be a 73% decline.
I'm going to declare Igy wrong...although technically he did not supply a date so the bet goes on.
page 3189, 11/20/2023
yeah not great and we're about to cut taxes again, which will make it even worse.
not a serious country.
This post was edited 14 seconds after it was posted.41 -
fjb wrote:
MSTR is now at $388 premarket. Closed at $340 on November 11, $227 on November 5
As I was saying...up nearly 16% premarket to $547
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Flagpole wrote:
Sally Vix wrote:
We are rooting for you, Flagpole. Another beatdown of the Dow by the Flagpole portfolio and you will have beaten the index 35 out of the last 36 years. My calculator doesn't have enough spaces to show the probability of this.
1) I likely will beat the Dow again this year.
2) You don't have the number of years correct...of course you don't.
3) You have zero idea how to figure out the probability of this...absolutely zero.
You have spent far, far too many years talking sh*t to strangers on the internet. Why are you so angry?
Is it because you spent months guaranteeing that Harris would win and you were completely and totally humiliated? I still can't get over how confident you were, despite growing evidence she was by no means a lock, and how wrong you ended up being.
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agip wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
yeah not great and we're about to cut taxes again, which will make it even worse.
not a serious country.
I agree with you, but the blame is shared by both parties, and of course its citizens. Citizens who could not find Ukraine on a map, while saturated with alcohol or drug abuse. But for dam sure they can tell you all about the latest pop star.
33 -
Morgan Stanley says softer dollar will help EM bonds in the new year. I purchased a small amount of FAX EM Bond CEF early this week when the price dropped and yield popped up to 13%.
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missBS wrote:
Flagpole wrote:
1) I likely will beat the Dow again this year.
2) You don't have the number of years correct...of course you don't.
3) You have zero idea how to figure out the probability of this...absolutely zero.
You have spent far, far too many years talking sh*t to strangers on the internet. Why are you so angry?
Is it because you spent months guaranteeing that Harris would win and you were completely and totally humiliated? I still can't get over how confident you were, despite growing evidence she was by no means a lock, and how wrong you ended up being.
Flagpole humbled? Of course not. In 4 years he will be on here relentlessly proclaiming with 100% certainty that Candidate Dem X will win the presidency 1,000 times. And he will be citing the 13 keys again and again and again.
43 -
Sally Vix wrote:
Flagpole wrote:
1) I likely will beat the Dow again this year.
2) You don't have the number of years correct...of course you don't.
3) You have zero idea how to figure out the probability of this...absolutely zero.
The probability of your portfolio beating the Dow in one year is likely 1/2. About 50%. They are closely aligned.
To beat it 34 out of 35 years is:
1/2 X 1/2 x 1/2 ... to 35. I don't have a calculator with me but maybe 1 in 12 billion.
Flagpole, come on dude.
I reject your assertion there, especially when I have done things, and had things done for me (and said so) that have made my performance against the Dow heavily weighted in my favor.
And again, you have the number of years wrong...of course you do.
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agip wrote:
fjb wrote:
As I was saying...up nearly 16% premarket to $547
mstr has had in intraday swing of 25%ish...that's not an investment, it's the equivalent of a Vegas table game.
You can say that again.
And if you do, you should change it to an intraday swing of no less than 40%, because that's what it's come to now. And not on the plus side, either.
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Superb call here.
SPX up 12% since this August 24 prediction that the correction was temporary.
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Carl Quintanilla
@carlquintanilla
EVERCORE: “.. the selloff is a buyable correction in a Bull Market .. not the end of the Bull Market .. we are reminded that Earnings drive stocks in the long term. And as 2Q Earnings season wraps up, growth of 11+%, with estimates holding relatively steady for 2024 and 2025 despite some signs of strain in the U.S. economy, bodes well ..” $SPX 🇺🇸7:06 AM · Aug 8, 2024
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seattle prattle wrote:
agip wrote:
mstr has had in intraday swing of 25%ish...that's not an investment, it's the equivalent of a Vegas table game.
You can say that again.
And if you do, you should change it to an intraday swing of no less than 40%, because that's what it's come to now. And not on the plus side, either.
Bought the leveraged short on MSTR a few minutes ago. Bitcoin likely headed to $100k, but MSTR looks pretty toppy.
23 -
Citron Research is a complete hack.04
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