AI stocks up only 2% since this tweet...maybe the period of mad growth is slowing indeed.
yoni rechtman @yrechtman In the last few weeks Goldman, Sequoia, and Barclays have all put out equity research that says “the AI capex boom doesn’t make sense”. That feels like a pretty significant harbinger of a major sentiment shift. 8:27 AM · Jul 6, 2024 · 988.3K Views
NVDA was $125.83 on July 5 and is $139.77 as of 10:45 this morning. I think they're the best AI-related company as their chips are just a superior product, even with the recent news of their Blackwell ones sometimes overheating.
I was using ticker AIQ as a proxy but there's no one way to measure AI stox.
Truly remarkable. The gap is probably even wider now. The USA seems to have built something different and stronger than the rest of the world.
Or for the glass half empty people....the US has to decline a lot to match up with the rest of the world.
Charlie Bilello @charliebilello US stocks have been outperforming international stocks for 15 years running, and by a huge margin. The result: we're now more than 2.5 standard deviations above the mean in terms of historical US outperformance.
1:32 PM · Dec 10, 2023 · 83.3K Views
Lower regulation and (mostly) lower taxes.
and more and better immigration.
and a culture of 'just go try it' and accepting failure
and magic places like San Francisco where people gather to do amazing things
Truly remarkable. The gap is probably even wider now. The USA seems to have built something different and stronger than the rest of the world.
Or for the glass half empty people....the US has to decline a lot to match up with the rest of the world.
Charlie Bilello @charliebilello US stocks have been outperforming international stocks for 15 years running, and by a huge margin. The result: we're now more than 2.5 standard deviations above the mean in terms of historical US outperformance.
San Francisco, where roving gangs stealing and homeless camps are the order of the day. The wonderful amazing innovators are fleeing the lawlessness. Hopefully new city leadership will put an asterisk to lunatic rule.
This post was edited 11 minutes after it was posted.
Discover the magic of the internet at Imgur, a community powered entertainment destination. Lift your spirits with funny jokes, trending memes, entertaining gifs, inspiring stories, viral videos, and so much more from users.
Barchart @Barchart Mega Cap Tech Stocks are now outperforming Small Cap Stocks by the largest margin since the peak of the Dot Com Bubble 👀 Probably Fine
Buying European defense contractors. I think it's clear that Europe will have to defend itself and that means big contracts to homeland firms. Ticker EUAD.
Buying the NY Times. Clearly there will be millions of clicks to be had over the next 4 years.
Buying short term TIPS, in case Rs do spike inflation with tariffs and deportations.
Selling longer term bonds and putting the money in money market. 4.6% to just sit and wait for chaos to develop seems like an ok plan. Better than 4% and big interest rate risk.
Question is if the Rs will succeed in wrecking the dollar by attacking the Fed's independence. Doesn't seem like the kind of fight trump wants, but all the crypto bros around him want to do it - kill the Fed and the dollar with it. To replace the dollar with crypto. So that would mean buy gold and BTC. Maybe other real assets. But I'm not there yet. I have $5000 in Bitcoin, that's it.
The other question is economic growth...if they do succeed in slashing federal spending...that would probably mean an immediate recession. What to do about that? Tough one. But I suppose I'd have all that cash in money market waiting to buy cheaper stuff. But I'll wish I hadn't sold the long term bonds.
In any case, overall I'm at the low end of my risk spectrum at 60% stocks.
I think I posted this before, but on X it was clear before the election that trends were favoring Repbulicans, but especially midway through election night that Trump would win. So I went hard on Tesla, Microstrategy (bitcoin), and a couple Musk-aligned cryptocurrencies themselves (bitcoin, dogecoin).
I've read the bitcoin white paper multiple times but still don't full understand it. That being said, I think global instability and a pro-crypto admin will let it keep rising. It's a relatively small percentage of my portfolio and a relatively asymmetric bet for me anyway. I don't think dogecoin will hit >$10, but my average price per coin is roughly 10c so I'm currently up a lot. Same with bitcoin: unfortunately my average price was roughly $60000 instead of the $6000 it could have been in March 2020, but I think it has a good likelihood of hitting 6 figures and then going on a relatively large bull run.
MSTR is now at $388 premarket. Closed at $340 on November 11, $227 on November 5
Distracted Boyfriend, also known as Man Looking at Other Woman, is a captioned stock photo series in which a man looks at the backside of a woman walking b
if your point is that there was no way Hussman could have predicted that the US would use the power of the Federal Reserve balance sheet and federal deficit spending to support the economy, then you are insulting Hussman more than anything I have said! I mean that's freshman macro.
Last week an office building purchased in 2017 for $121 million sold for $60 million. Long duration Treasury bonds lost a similar amount during that period. Stocks are an asset of similar duration at 20-30 years. I have seen nothing that deters me from believing stocks will suffer a similar fate, perhaps worse. I have said, and I continue to believe 2,300, or the Covid low, is a near certainty. And the 3/2000 1,550 high, and the 1,575 10/2007 high are likely lows in a historic bear market, which I do expect.
Most posters here are quick to attack anyone that has a sober market view. Yet they are willing to give a pass to the Fed with their $Trillion balance sheet losses, and culpability in the inflation that hurts average Americans. Why, because the Fed seemingly buttered the investor’s bread? The lunacy of Government tax policy and spending fuels real wars, culture wars, corporate largesse, illegal immigration, and handouts to those that refuse personal responsibility . None of this madness comes with benign ending for the glamorous stock market. Sorry.
DGTD Internal Staff Prediction Check!
On 11/20/23 Igy said SPX 2,300 was a near certainty.
We're now at SPX 5,944
We would need a 61% decline to get to Igy's prediction.
Igy was less certain but also suggested SPX 1,550 was likely, which would now be a 73% decline.
I'm going to declare Igy wrong...although technically he did not supply a date so the bet goes on.
On 7/16 a giant rally hit small caps and apparently the index hit never-before-seen levels of overboughtedness.
It did decline 10% plus in the days after, but we're 2% higher than the 7/16 spike.
So even for those who got caught up in a feeding frenzy, you are in the black.
But waiting a couple weeks for the waters to calm and then buying was a better move.
Everyone won, but some won more.
Unless you bought at the peak and then sold at the trough. Then you lost.
Post See new posts Conversation Bespoke @bespokeinvest History was made today. The Russell 2000 closed 4.4 standard deviations above its 50-day moving average. No other major US index (Dow since 1900, S&P 500 since 1928, and Nasdaq since 1971) has ever closed at that much of an extreme. "Where were you when..."
listening to macro forecasts and applying them to the stock market is silly.
Bob Elliott @BobEUnlimited All indications are that the US economy is in the late cycle and many of the dynamics that helped foster the rebound in growth in early '23 are unlikely to be repeated in early '24. Result is conditions are aligning for a much weaker '24. @JackFarley96 :1:11 AM · Oct 15, 2023 · 68.4K Views
NVDA was $125.83 on July 5 and is $139.77 as of 10:45 this morning. I think they're the best AI-related company as their chips are just a superior product, even with the recent news of their Blackwell ones sometimes overheating.
I was using ticker AIQ as a proxy but there's no one way to measure AI stox.
NVDA closing in on 150. Then only another 50 in six weeks to reach my year-end prediction of 200.
So responding to op, who said he invested in ETFs, there's an ETF for the dow, so why is it useless then, Anyway it's not just any etf , it's an index ETF like the sp500, exactly as op was describing
Last week an office building purchased in 2017 for $121 million sold for $60 million. Long duration Treasury bonds lost a similar amount during that period. Stocks are an asset of similar duration at 20-30 years. I have seen nothing that deters me from believing stocks will suffer a similar fate, perhaps worse. I have said, and I continue to believe 2,300, or the Covid low, is a near certainty. And the 3/2000 1,550 high, and the 1,575 10/2007 high are likely lows in a historic bear market, which I do expect.
Most posters here are quick to attack anyone that has a sober market view. Yet they are willing to give a pass to the Fed with their $Trillion balance sheet losses, and culpability in the inflation that hurts average Americans. Why, because the Fed seemingly buttered the investor’s bread? The lunacy of Government tax policy and spending fuels real wars, culture wars, corporate largesse, illegal immigration, and handouts to those that refuse personal responsibility . None of this madness comes with benign ending for the glamorous stock market. Sorry.
DGTD Internal Staff Prediction Check!
On 11/20/23 Igy said SPX 2,300 was a near certainty.
We're now at SPX 5,944
We would need a 61% decline to get to Igy's prediction.
Igy was less certain but also suggested SPX 1,550 was likely, which would now be a 73% decline.
I'm going to declare Igy wrong...although technically he did not supply a date so the bet goes on.
