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Shiller PE ratio currently tied for second highest ever, almost as high as height of the dot com bubble. The time it's tied with is 2021 right before the market fell 22%... Gotta think we're in store for something similar soon.
Shiller PE ratio currently tied for second highest ever, almost as high as height of the dot com bubble. The time it's tied with is 2021 right before the market fell 22%... Gotta think we're in store for something similar soon.
The market will likely drop at least a little bit and for a little while soon (when is "soon?" Who knows?). It has been a super strong year, AND there was just the bump that comes most of the time when a new US President is elected (never matters what party or who it is...it's the ending of some uncertainty that does it). So, what do you do with that? You don't know WHEN it will drop, or really even if it will at all. You also don't know much it might drop and for how long it might do so.
If it DOES drop, and you are still a buyer, not a taker (so still working), then stocks are on sale. Buy, buy, buy. If it DOESN'T drop, then every purchase you made was at a discount also, because the market kept going up. ~73% of calendar years are UP years, and the overall trend is UP. You should continue to buy, continue to get out of debt if you still have it, and don't stop buying until you retire and are ready to withdraw.
Shiller PE ratio currently tied for second highest ever, almost as high as height of the dot com bubble. The time it's tied with is 2021 right before the market fell 22%... Gotta think we're in store for something similar soon.
The market will likely drop at least a little bit and for a little while soon (when is "soon?" Who knows?). It has been a super strong year, AND there was just the bump that comes most of the time when a new US President is elected (never matters what party or who it is...it's the ending of some uncertainty that does it). So, what do you do with that? You don't know WHEN it will drop, or really even if it will at all. You also don't know much it might drop and for how long it might do so.
If it DOES drop, and you are still a buyer, not a taker (so still working), then stocks are on sale. Buy, buy, buy. If it DOESN'T drop, then every purchase you made was at a discount also, because the market kept going up. ~73% of calendar years are UP years, and the overall trend is UP. You should continue to buy, continue to get out of debt if you still have it, and don't stop buying until you retire and are ready to withdraw.
Shiller PE ratio currently tied for second highest ever, almost as high as height of the dot com bubble. The time it's tied with is 2021 right before the market fell 22%... Gotta think we're in store for something similar soon.
The market will likely drop at least a little bit and for a little while soon (when is "soon?" Who knows?). It has been a super strong year, AND there was just the bump that comes most of the time when a new US President is elected (never matters what party or who it is...it's the ending of some uncertainty that does it). So, what do you do with that? You don't know WHEN it will drop, or really even if it will at all. You also don't know much it might drop and for how long it might do so.
If it DOES drop, and you are still a buyer, not a taker (so still working), then stocks are on sale. Buy, buy, buy. If it DOESN'T drop, then every purchase you made was at a discount also, because the market kept going up. ~73% of calendar years are UP years, and the overall trend is UP. You should continue to buy, continue to get out of debt if you still have it, and don't stop buying until you retire and are ready to withdraw.
PE ratio, PE schmatio.
You can say that again. Oh, wait, you did say it again.
But seriously, one tactic that I have had good luck with is to start easing up on buying at the peaks( i.e.: when market sets new ATH), so that I had, as they say, some dry powder on hand if and when the market pulled back. I guess it is also a bit conservative since it minimizes the chances of getting caught buying at a high only to see it fade.
That's the strategy, but I find it's awfully tempting to get overextended when the markets are most frothy.
The market will likely drop at least a little bit and for a little while soon (when is "soon?" Who knows?). It has been a super strong year, AND there was just the bump that comes most of the time when a new US President is elected (never matters what party or who it is...it's the ending of some uncertainty that does it). So, what do you do with that? You don't know WHEN it will drop, or really even if it will at all. You also don't know much it might drop and for how long it might do so.
If it DOES drop, and you are still a buyer, not a taker (so still working), then stocks are on sale. Buy, buy, buy. If it DOESN'T drop, then every purchase you made was at a discount also, because the market kept going up. ~73% of calendar years are UP years, and the overall trend is UP. You should continue to buy, continue to get out of debt if you still have it, and don't stop buying until you retire and are ready to withdraw.
PE ratio, PE schmatio.
You can say that again. Oh, wait, you did say it again.
Shiller PE ratio currently tied for second highest ever, almost as high as height of the dot com bubble. The time it's tied with is 2021 right before the market fell 22%... Gotta think we're in store for something similar soon.
I wouldn’t suggest trying to time market drops based on high CAPE, it can be quite high for a long time. It’s better to think of such value measures as indicative of longer term returns. That said, when the market gets very expensive like that, you might consider adjusting your asset mix to have a higher than usual weight in cash (like Buffett has done) and fixed income than usual.
While flaphole has declared the markets will NOT crash, and he will tell you he is never wrong, markets DO crash from time to time (beware the fat tail gente keeps mentioning), Mueller never came and, unfortunately, Kamala did NOT win. Although maybe he has some bizarre logic to explain why he’s right on all those accounts to brighten our Monday.
Shiller PE ratio currently tied for second highest ever, almost as high as height of the dot com bubble. The time it's tied with is 2021 right before the market fell 22%... Gotta think we're in store for something similar soon.
I wouldn’t suggest trying to time market drops based on high CAPE, it can be quite high for a long time. It’s better to think of such value measures as indicative of longer term returns. That said, when the market gets very expensive like that, you might consider adjusting your asset mix to have a higher than usual weight in cash (like Buffett has done) and fixed income than usual.
While flaphole has declared the markets will NOT crash, and he will tell you he is never wHerong, markets DO crash from time to time (beware the fat tail gente keeps mentioning), Mueller never came and, unfortunately, Kamala did NOT win. Although maybe he has some bizarre logic to explain why he’s right on all those accounts to brighten our Monday.
He also assured us many, many times that Hillary would win in 2016. Of course he was wrong on that as well. If only I had a $1 for every time Flagpole was wrong, I would be a very, very rich man. Not Flagpole rich, but rich nonetheless.
always interesting to ask if being a contrarian is a good way to invest.
here's some evidence that it is not. Following the crowd a year ago was a great idea. And by this measure, always is.
1 year SP500: +39%
Ryan Detrick, CMT @RyanDetrick After one of the best weeks for stocks in years, AAII bulls saw a historic jump. (insert shocked face) Up >18% in one week has only happened 8 other times the past 20 yrs. Higher a yr later all 8 times, but near-term some weakness isn't abnormal.
steph pomboy @spomboy As we look ahead to next week, the market is facing three blustery headwinds. (1) The unwelcome realization the Fed is not going to deliver an immaculate pivot but is in fact too late to the party.... as always. (2) the rising prospect of the continuation of big government, anti-private sector fiscal policies. And, perhaps most importantly l, (3) the unwind of the three decade-long yen carry trade. Buckle up, folks! The road is about to get very bumpy. 10:24 AM · Aug 4, 2024 · 156.7K Views
I wouldn’t suggest trying to time market drops based on high CAPE, it can be quite high for a long time. It’s better to think of such value measures as indicative of longer term returns. That said, when the market gets very expensive like that, you might consider adjusting your asset mix to have a higher than usual weight in cash (like Buffett has done) and fixed income than usual.
While flaphole has declared the markets will NOT crash, and he will tell you he is never wHerong, markets DO crash from time to time (beware the fat tail gente keeps mentioning), Mueller never came and, unfortunately, Kamala did NOT win. Although maybe he has some bizarre logic to explain why he’s right on all those accounts to brighten our Monday.
He also assured us many, many times that Hillary would win in 2016. Of course he was wrong on that as well. If only I had a $1 for every time Flagpole was wrong, I would be a very, very rich man. Not Flagpole rich, but rich nonetheless.
1) I got Harris wrong, but not Hillary, because Trump cheated in that one, and I said he could not cheat. Fair game to bust me on the Harris pick.
2) You COULD have been Flagpole rich if you invested properly since age 23 or sooner.
Shiller PE ratio currently tied for second highest ever, almost as high as height of the dot com bubble. The time it's tied with is 2021 right before the market fell 22%... Gotta think we're in store for something similar soon.
I wouldn’t suggest trying to time market drops based on high CAPE, it can be quite high for a long time. It’s better to think of such value measures as indicative of longer term returns. That said, when the market gets very expensive like that, you might consider adjusting your asset mix to have a higher than usual weight in cash (like Buffett has done) and fixed income than usual.
While flaphole has declared the markets will NOT crash, and he will tell you he is never wrong, markets DO crash from time to time (beware the fat tail gente keeps mentioning), Mueller never came and, unfortunately, Kamala did NOT win. Although maybe he has some bizarre logic to explain why he’s right on all those accounts to brighten our Monday.
1) You shouldn't try to time the market EVER.
2) I have NEVER said the markets will not crash. In fact, my stated strategy to you mooks is in case it DOES crash. Unless you have more money than you will ever need, even with a big market crash, if you want to protect against a big market crash, you should have 3 YEARS of expenses MINIMUM liquid out of the stock market when you retire so that you can use that to pay bills and perhaps SS too if you qualify while you wait for the market to recover (because it will). For most people, Social Security and 3 YEARS of expenses saved liquid could easily get them 5 years down the road without having to touch their retirement investment money. That should be long enough for the market to recover, and if it isn't, you have 5 fewer years that you need to take from the investment pile, so that helps. If the market crashes while you are still working, as long as you have a job, you should continue to invest as you have been, and if you can, dump even MORE into the market so that when it recovers (and again, it WILL), you will have bought at a deep discount.
3) So, since you said that I declared something I have NEVER done, YOU were WRONG.
4) Mueller absolutely came, but it appears Trump will escape justice, as I doubt now that even state crimes will serve the justice he deserves. I got Kamala wrong. I also thought Americans weren't as stupid as they apparently are, so you can count that one as one I got wrong too. I believe I have finally learned my lesson there. I ALWAYS admit when I am wrong and have never said I am never wrong...something that YOU are WRONG about again.
