test
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Small caps rallied hard a year ago and are up 39% since then. So this predictor held true again.
One year returns small caps have beaten the SP500. After rising 5% yesterday.
That's probably not what most people think.
And many small cap funds are up much more than that - in the 50-60% range. Big rally. Hoping for more.
One year:
R2k: +39%
SPX: +37.5%
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Jason Goepfert
@jasongoepfert
This is the 24th time the Russell 2000 closed at a 52-week low, then surged to its best 4-day rally in at least 3 months.
A year later, the small-cap index was higher 100% of the time with a median return of +25.6%.4:04 PM · Nov 2, 2023
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Half a million views on this one.
Oil did rise $2 so ok fine he probably made some money on a 50/50 bet
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Kim Dotcom
@KimDotcom
Going long oil futures, 20x leverage.
Watch the oil price in the next 3 days.
9:47 PM · Nov 2, 2024
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Hussman Strategic Market Cycle Fund celebrated it's new name by losing 3.36% yesterday. That ranks as it's 7th worst day (adjusted price; 11th worst by price)! There are better ways to implement the strategy he allegedly employs.
A reminder, I've pointed out in the past that FT Alphaville is free with registration. It's the closest thing to a free lunch in finance. If you had been reading their articles, yesterday's post election pop, esp $RUT, would come as no surprise.
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la gente esta muy loca wrote:
Hussman Strategic Market Cycle Fund celebrated it's new name by losing 3.36% yesterday. That ranks as it's 7th worst day (adjusted price; 11th worst by price)! There are better ways to implement the strategy he allegedly employs.
A reminder, I've pointed out in the past that FT Alphaville is free with registration. It's the closest thing to a free lunch in finance. If you had been reading their articles, yesterday's post election pop, esp $RUT, would come as no surprise.
It appears they have renamed it. And for that 3.36% loss you are paying 1.22% fees annually.
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Sally Vix wrote:
la gente esta muy loca wrote:
Hussman Strategic Market Cycle Fund celebrated it's new name by losing 3.36% yesterday. That ranks as it's 7th worst day (adjusted price; 11th worst by price)! There are better ways to implement the strategy he allegedly employs.
A reminder, I've pointed out in the past that FT Alphaville is free with registration. It's the closest thing to a free lunch in finance. If you had been reading their articles, yesterday's post election pop, esp $RUT, would come as no surprise.
It appears they have renamed it. And for that 3.36% loss you are paying 1.22% fees annually.
And it's down 10% for the year.
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Feels like the market just doesn't believe trump will expel millions of workers or slap on a material amount of tariffs. Markets up and the VIX is very low.
Or maybe the market is just saying that any harm done by those things...will be outweighed by lower taxes and regulation.
But I think it's a mistake to think Trump won't go after his main campaign pledges. He'll try very hard to get those two things done. And that can't be good for the economy. Maybe not catastrophic but will at least create some downdrafts.
If I had any idea how to buy a put option to create a hedge I'd consider buying one now, maturing in 6 months. Seems pretty likely there will be at least volatility as the new admin starts throwing its weight around.
This post was edited 5 minutes after it was posted.10 -
agip wrote:
Feels like the market just doesn't believe trump will expel millions of workers or slap on a material amount of tariffs. Markets up and the VIX is very low.
Or maybe the market is just saying that any harm done by those things...will be outweighed by lower taxes and regulation.
But I think it's a mistake to think Trump won't go after his main campaign pledges. He'll try very hard to get those two things done. And that can't be good for the economy. Maybe not catastrophic but will at least create some downdrafts.
If I had any idea how to buy a put option to create a hedge I'd consider buying one now, maturing in 6 months. Seems pretty likely there will be at least volatility as the new admin starts throwing its weight around.
NASDAQ was around 6,800 4-and-a-half years ago. It is now above 19,000. That is just crazy. I will give Biden credit for not screwing it up.
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Sally Vix wrote:
la gente esta muy loca wrote:
Hussman Strategic Market Cycle Fund celebrated it's new name by losing 3.36% yesterday. That ranks as it's 7th worst day (adjusted price; 11th worst by price)! There are better ways to implement the strategy he allegedly employs.
A reminder, I've pointed out in the past that FT Alphaville is free with registration. It's the closest thing to a free lunch in finance. If you had been reading their articles, yesterday's post election pop, esp $RUT, would come as no surprise.
It appears they have renamed it. And for that 3.36% loss you are paying 1.22% fees annually.
I maintain a small position in HSGFX up 3%, if my SOXS and TECS position (slightly larger) I was up on last week (now down double digits) paid off big, I would buy more of the fund regardless of its name. The market looks to be headed to 6,000-6,100, in that case the leveraged shorts will be reduced or sold to be bought back later. Of course speculating.
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Needed to be said wrote:
missBS. wrote:
Oh wow I didn’t even see this. So funny. Hope you’re doing okay babe, just here to rub it in your face as I said I would 1.5 months ago and yesterday :)
So much for the 13 keys :)
I was right and you were wrong :)
Flagpole in addition to being an arrogant woke brainwashed liberal. Good to see posters like Flagpole taken down along with every swing state. This election exposed all the lies THEY believed, from 2020 Biden’s 81 million votes, to the sham of believing J6ers were bad people, the Trump lawfare, Russia Hoax, Blinken’s Hunter’s laptop Russian disinformation letter, the list is nearly endless. These guys were suckers, saps, stupid tools of the bureaucratic state.
1) I would not qualify as "woke." I do not support surgical or medical intervention for "gender care" for anyone under age 18. I do not support biological males participating in women's' or girls' sports. I have discussed that many times here, so you're wrong.
2) There is no evidence that Biden didn't get the votes he got, so provide that evidence, or it's no lie.
3) J6ers ARE bad people. Sorry, but they are. This election doesn't disprove that. They tried to overturn a fair election under the direction of Trump. Insane that he has been elected again. I hope our country can survive it.
4) No Trump lawfare. He has faced the law because he's a criminal. He is going to escape justice now at least from some of it, and that's a shame. The rules don't apply equally to everyone in this country, and that's wrong.
5) Russia hoax? Depends on what you consider part of the Russia issue. Trump Tower meeting was enough for me. Trump asking Russia to find Hillary's e-mails was enough for me.
6) Hunter's laptop? I could not care less. If there are crimes that ANYONE has committed, go after them.
7) The suckers will long be remembered as Trump supporters in this very dark time in our nation's history. An amoral and stupid man with so much power is a dangerous thing.
It will be at least 4 years now of chaos. I hope for our country that it ends there. Even if a MAAGA disciple is the next President (as long as he/she is ELECTED and not appointed by Trump), there aren't any current ones eligible (might be a problem if The Constitution is scrapped and Elon Musk can be President) who are as stupid as Trump, who are narcissists, who are completely amoral.
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6,000 S & P and 20,000 Nasdaq (hopefully). Who woulda thought?
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Sally Vix wrote:
6,000 S & P and 20,000 Nasdaq (hopefully). Who woulda thought?
Joe and Kamala's parting gift to the American people. God bless them.
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Sally Vix wrote:
6,000 S & P and 20,000 Nasdaq (hopefully). Who woulda thought?
I could never have imagined.
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Did they also make DJT drop 20% since yesterday's close? That stock is cray cray!
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“It will be at least 4 years now of chaos. I hope for our country that it ends there. Even if a MAAGA disciple is the next President (as long as he/she is ELECTED and not appointed by Trump), there aren't any current ones eligible (might be a problem if The Constitution is scrapped and Elon Musk can be President) who are as stupid as Trump, who are narcissists, who are completely amoral.”
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Brilliant investment for Musk. TSLA up roughly 20% in the last 2 days. All for just $130 million. Now not only will the government not be weaponized against him, it'll actively benefit him. Happy with how my crypto has done as well. I view BTC/ETH as real investments, 'classic' memecoins as legit but not as much, and I think dogecoin might hit ATH in a year or two because of Trump / Elon. Loaded up on it Tuesday and am also up roughly 20%. And their SEC will be MUCH more lax with regulation as well.
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Ghost of Igloi wrote:
“It will be at least 4 years now of chaos. I hope for our country that it ends there. Even if a MAAGA disciple is the next President (as long as he/she is ELECTED and not appointed by Trump), there aren't any current ones eligible (might be a problem if The Constitution is scrapped and Elon Musk can be President) who are as stupid as Trump, who are narcissists, who are completely amoral.”
Was the Constitution "scrapped" in his first term? Come on, Igy. That is silly.
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Sally Vix wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
“It will be at least 4 years now of chaos. I hope for our country that it ends there. Even if a MAAGA disciple is the next President (as long as he/she is ELECTED and not appointed by Trump), there aren't any current ones eligible (might be a problem if The Constitution is scrapped and Elon Musk can be President) who are as stupid as Trump, who are narcissists, who are completely amoral.”
Was the Constitution "scrapped" in his first term? Come on, Igy. That is silly.
That was Flagpole’s quote, or deluded thoughts. Besides, not a Constitutional issue, but where are the lib cries to pack the Supreme Court or end the filibuster?
In regards to Musk, I think X will prove to be a big money maker, as it is the best source for unfiltered news. That was certainly true at a variety of times, latest election night.
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Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Sally Vix wrote:
Was the Constitution "scrapped" in his first term? Come on, Igy. That is silly.
That was Flagpole’s quote, or deluded thoughts. Besides, not a Constitutional issue, but where are the lib cries to pack the Supreme Court or end the filibuster?
In regards to Musk, I think X will prove to be a big money maker, as it is the best source for unfiltered news. That was certainly true at a variety of times, latest election night.
If Elon had never bought Twitter/X and Kamala had won the White House, things would be very much different and worse.
Last of my political statements.
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Hussman’s political views are aligned with many posters here, and were shared on X in the lead-up to the election. I have always found his market commentary thoughtful, fundamentally in conflict with markets and Wall Street writers of the past decade. Here are his latest thoughts, not surprisingly, pointing out the historically high valuations. By the way, most value funds are at historically high PEs as managers chase market performance. So fund names can be misnomers, depending in large part on market conditions. Hussman today:
This post was edited 3 minutes after it was posted.00
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