Hey Flagpole, just checking in sweetheart, seeing how you're doing. You must be terrified. I'll be back on Wednesday to rub Trump winning in your face! :)
1) I'm not terrified at all. Harris is going to win.
2) Nah, you won't be back here to rub anything in my face. Trump will lose.
Harris wins. It's over.
Oh wow I didn’t even see this. So funny. Hope you’re doing okay babe, just here to rub it in your face as I said I would 1.5 months ago and yesterday :)
because they don't buy stuff overseas so they won't be subject to tariffs.
wow.
A lot of people have narrowed their holdings to only big stocks...if they start rushing into small stocks, small stocks can move more than we imagine.
Stocks almost always go up on news of ANY US President.
Just saw some stats that said that after a Republican wins the election, the market goes up more in the first month than if a Democrat wins, but then at the 6 month mark and the 12 month mark, stocks are better with a Democrat President. Likely just some weird stat. I don't think that's based on anything real.
We're in for a ride with Trump in the White House again. I can not imagine that he's not about to commit more crimes, as he would have to completely change his personality and world view to NOT do that. The only question is will anyone hold him accountable? I think maybe not.
because they don't buy stuff overseas so they won't be subject to tariffs.
wow.
A lot of people have narrowed their holdings to only big stocks...if they start rushing into small stocks, small stocks can move more than we imagine.
agip, what did you decide to do in the end? Keen to follow along and see how your choice turns out, if you're game to share.
you mean what did I do before the election?
Basically nothing.
I reduced duration of my TIPS and that was the main thing. That should prove the right move as bond yields are much higher today/bond prices are much lower because of runaway deficits. I'll lose, but lose a lot less than I would have.
I took a tiny flyer on european stocks based on a rebound there if harris won. That will lose, but less than $200 so just a pride thing, not a real thing.
I'm pretty well placed for today's market....I'm always far overweight small caps and that will work big time.
My emerging markets exposure is ex-china and that will help.
I am very underweight europe so that's good.
I have a lot of tech and that should be fine, but might underperform.
I also have a slug of old fashioned value and weirdly that seems to be outperforming. Not sure why.
On the downside, I have a small position in long term bonds, based on falling inflation. That will take a hit and I'll liquidate it this morning. I have some intermediate corporate bonds and those will have to go. I was wrong to extend duration in some bonds.
Right now the moves I'm considering are:
getting out of europe entirely
moving bond money to plain money market to get 4.7% with no interest rate risk. I already have 8% of my portfolio there so that's good.
I'll probably move even more into small stocks
I have a big poisition in short term junk bonds. It's been good but maybe time to sell that. Not sure.
but the overriding Q is trying to predict an unpredictable trump. If he follows through on the deportations and slashing federal spending...we'll have a recession and all the bets above will go sour.
This post was edited 3 minutes after it was posted.
No, you don't get to do that. You don't get to name call every person who says Trump would win for months then go, "oh well, oops, the stock market will go up anyway :) "
You were dead wrong on every single thing you said. You were extremely confident, condescending, arrogant, rude, and every other thing that a majority of the entire country despises in Democrats these days.
You embody everything that the average American dislikes about the left. People like you are almost certainly close to the single top reason why Trump was elected for a second term. I am here to gloat, rub this in your face. Hopefully you learn, which you won't, and Republicans will keep winning until people like you get it through your head that the average person despises liberals with your attitude.
Good luck trying to time the market agip, I hope it works out for you. I'm sticking with VTI and BND.
I'm just playing on the margin of course. c. 85% of my portfolio doesn't change and is just plain vanilla ETFS in a generic 65/35 portfolio. Similar to yours, I'm sure.
But note that you are making choices and market timing too, by not owning anything overseas.
This post was edited 5 minutes after it was posted.
Flagpole rolled a gutter ball in every swing state, and yet the Dow went up. Strange world we live in.
Well, to be fair, I have NEVER connected a President to a rising stock market. There is evidence that the stock market HAS DONE better when a Democrat is in the White House, but I have never put any stock (pun intended) into that. We have a global economy, and the stock market is mostly a reflection of how the global economy is doing...even our domestic stocks.
Flagpole rolled a gutter ball in every swing state, and yet the Dow went up. Strange world we live in.
Well, to be fair, I have NEVER connected a President to a rising stock market. There is evidence that the stock market HAS DONE better when a Democrat is in the White House, but I have never put any stock (pun intended) into that. We have a global economy, and the stock market is mostly a reflection of how the global economy is doing...even our domestic stocks.
Flagpole rolled a gutter ball in every swing state, and yet the Dow went up. Strange world we live in.
Well, to be fair, I have NEVER connected a President to a rising stock market. There is evidence that the stock market HAS DONE better when a Democrat is in the White House, but I have never put any stock (pun intended) into that. We have a global economy, and the stock market is mostly a reflection of how the global economy is doing...even our domestic stocks.
Flagpole rolled a gutter ball in every swing state, and yet the Dow went up. Strange world we live in.
Well, to be fair, I have NEVER connected a President to a rising stock market. There is evidence that the stock market HAS DONE better when a Democrat is in the White House, but I have never put any stock (pun intended) into that. We have a global economy, and the stock market is mostly a reflection of how the global economy is doing...even our domestic stocks.
Flagpole why aren't you responding? You said I wouldn't be back to mention the election again. What happened? Oh that's right, your inability to use your brain and see that the data didn't match up to your precious 13 keys is what happened. Your lack of critical thinking is astounding. Please, for your own sake, try to use your brain for the years you have remaining in this life. It will be much better for you if you can do that.
Good luck trying to time the market agip, I hope it works out for you. I'm sticking with VTI and BND.
I'm just playing on the margin of course. c. 85% of my portfolio doesn't change and is just plain vanilla ETFS in a generic 65/35 portfolio. Similar to yours, I'm sure.
But note that you are making choices and market timing too, by not owning anything overseas.
Good luck trying to time the market agip, I hope it works out for you. I'm sticking with VTI and BND.
I'm just playing on the margin of course. c. 85% of my portfolio doesn't change and is just plain vanilla ETFS in a generic 65/35 portfolio. Similar to yours, I'm sure.
But note that you are making choices and market timing too, by not owning anything overseas.
I am not making any significant changes to my portfolio either. Maybe in the long term, but like I projected before, a Trump win would likely result in an uptick in the market initially (emphasis on initially).
I did nibble on an insignificant position on Tesla pre-market and now am up by a little. It's hard to see where this could go wrong and I fully expect that in time I will wonder why I didn't buy more.
The small caps had me scratching my head overnight and all morning - I get how they can be outperforming the Nasdaq, tech., and SNP 500, but it makes no sense to me how the triple leveraged small cap ETF is up twide as much as a simple triple leveraging would imply. The 3x lveraged ETF is up by a mutiple of approx. 6x. Seriously, what gives? Comparing VB vs. TNA.
Anyway, time to change my focus as I transition into post-election. I am going to be checking on this thread, but spending vastly less time on this abrasive site, and instead spending more time on my pursuits and hobbies.
The Dow is on pace to have a gain today of 1,437. The only daily gains higher than that were all in 2020, with gains of about 2,100, 1,985 and 1,687. But the % gain today is only about 3.4%. In 2020 the % gains were 11%, 9% and 7%.
I'm just playing on the margin of course. c. 85% of my portfolio doesn't change and is just plain vanilla ETFS in a generic 65/35 portfolio. Similar to yours, I'm sure.
But note that you are making choices and market timing too, by not owning anything overseas.
Anyway, time to change my focus as I transition into post-election. I am going to be checking on this thread, but spending vastly less time on this abrasive site, and instead spending more time on my pursuits and hobbies.
Anyway, time to change my focus as I transition into post-election. I am going to be checking on this thread, but spending vastly less time on this abrasive site, and instead spending more time on my pursuits and hobbies.
I should follow this advice.
I was afraid you would say that, but I hope you don't. Enough said.
1) I'm not terrified at all. Harris is going to win.
2) Nah, you won't be back here to rub anything in my face. Trump will lose.
Harris wins. It's over.
Oh wow I didn’t even see this. So funny. Hope you’re doing okay babe, just here to rub it in your face as I said I would 1.5 months ago and yesterday :)
So much for the 13 keys :)
I was right and you were wrong :)
Flagpole in addition to being an arrogant woke brainwashed liberal. Good to see posters like Flagpole taken down along with every swing state. This election exposed all the lies THEY believed, from 2020 Biden’s 81 million votes, to the sham of believing J6ers were bad people, the Trump lawfare, Russia Hoax, Blinken’s Hunter’s laptop Russian disinformation letter, the list is nearly endless. These guys were suckers, saps, stupid tools of the bureaucratic state.