Whoopsie. Why do stockpickers always think we need to stock pick?
SPX +38% since this tweet
Worldwide Exchange @CNBCWEX "It's a good time to be active and be thinking about what sectors and companies you want to own at this part of the cycle because I don't think you want to broadly own the stock market," says Clough Capital's Vince Lorusso to @FrankCNBC
Hey Flagpole, just checking in sweetheart, seeing how you're doing. You must be terrified. I'll be back on Wednesday to rub Trump winning in your face! :)
I don't know about you, GoI and the others; but it always seems at a repast or at a bar (on the Irish side) after a wake, some family "secrets"get revealed.
I found a newspaper article copied from microfiche in a file of my father’s papers. It was when we moved my mother out of her home, more than a decade after my father’s passing. The article was on my grandfather’s suicide, contained an apology to his children. Strangely I thought of this event 100 years ago to the day last year, shortly before Christmas, not remembering the exact date. I did know it was before Christmas in the 1920s. So startling I posted it to my Facebook page the same day.
This post was edited 4 minutes after it was posted.
yeah the 10 year yield is getting high and climbing right up a wall.
just temporary yips from the election? or is inflation kicking up again? Or are people deciding US bonds are not good bets anymore because both harris and trump will blow out the budget?
4.37% on the 10 year. Ouch.
stocks have been fading today as yields go ever higher.
I'm really thinking sitting out in money market. getting 4.5% is pretty good.
I also have short term junk bonds in size and those are doing well. The economy is strong, so getting 2/3 the return of stocks with half the risk might be a good deal for some equity money.
Flagpole, I have some very bad news for you. Very, very bad.
Brace yourself.... And here it is:
"Nov 1 (Reuters) - AI chip firm Nvidia will replace chipmaker Intel in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P Dow Jones Indices said on Friday. (Reporting by Akash Sriram in Bengaluru; Editing by Maju Samuel)"
Your days of beating the Dow are soon to be a thing of the past. Over. Nevermore.
Nvidia, which is up big already on the day, jumped another 3% on the news afterhours.
It was good while it lasted, FP. But the 'A-Team' just came to town.
yeah the 10 year yield is getting high and climbing right up a wall.
just temporary yips from the election? or is inflation kicking up again? Or are people deciding US bonds are not good bets anymore because both harris and trump will blow out the budget?
4.37% on the 10 year. Ouch.
stocks have been fading today as yields go ever higher.
I'm really thinking sitting out in money market. getting 4.5% is pretty good.
I also have short term junk bonds in size and those are doing well. The economy is strong, so getting 2/3 the return of stocks with half the risk might be a good deal for some equity money.
Over the last 15 years the S & P has returned 14% annually. 11.2% adjusted for inflation. Not sure why you would want to get out of equities.
Average annual return for the S & P 500 is about 10%... Even if we had a 0% return for 2025, the average over the previous 5 years would still be higher than the historical average. Considering the Shiller PE ratio is also currently at 36, I'm thinking a pullback of some kind is likely at some point over the next 6-12 months. Thinking of selling off my margin, personally.
Over the last 15 years the S & P has returned 14% annually. 11.2% adjusted for inflation. Not sure why you would want to get out of equities.
15 years ago in 2009, the CAPE10 was at 16 to 19 and the Buffett Indicator was at 56% to 77%, both strong indicators of upcoming periods of very good returns. Today, CAPE10 is around 36 and the Buffett Indicator is at 156%, both indicators of upcoming periods of very poor returns. If you believe the "things are different this time" hypothesis, US markets could return ~ 14 % annually for the next 10-20 years. Buyer beware...
I'm starting to lean in this crazy direction if Trump wins. Forget old bricks and mortar and buy tech. Trump and Vance seem to have a soft spot for tech, and obviously tariffs will hurt US companies that have to buy stuff overseas.
Cautionary tale alert about investing based on election results. It's November 2016, Trump is announced the winner, do you buy XOP (Oil and Gas Exploration and Production ETF) or TAN (Solar ETF)?
It's November 2020, Biden is announced the winner, same choices, which one?
Flagpole, I have some very bad news for you. Very, very bad.
Brace yourself.... And here it is:
"Nov 1 (Reuters) - AI chip firm Nvidia will replace chipmaker Intel in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P Dow Jones Indices said on Friday. (Reporting by Akash Sriram in Bengaluru; Editing by Maju Samuel)"
Your days of beating the Dow are soon to be a thing of the past. Over. Nevermore.
Nvidia, which is up big already on the day, jumped another 3% on the news afterhours.
It was good while it lasted, FP. But the 'A-Team' just came to town.
don't stocks that get added to indices tend to tank?
Someone did an analysis and if I remember correctly if you bought the stocks that were *dropped* from the DJIA you'd do better than the actual DJIA.
Idea is that by the time the DJIA committee decides a stock has to go, everyone who has sold has already sold and the stock was ripe for a rebound.
And in the reverse....my memory is that in the tech bubble they added some tech companies and dropped old line mfgring companies...only to have those tech companies fall 50% or more. And if they hadn't dropped the mfgring companies, the DJIA would have been much higher 2002-2012. Because the mfgring companies didn't drop as much as the tech.
Two year return for 60/40: 9% total, or around 4.5% per year.
He also said alts would dominate high net worth portfolios. I don't think that's happened.
CEO of Apollo, Marc Rowan, is one of the shrewdest investors out there. In Sept/Oct, his firm was on the other side of 1/3 of the liquidity supply that stemmed from LDI-related forced selling.
Here's what he had to say on his firm's earnings call today 👇
Over the last 15 years the S & P has returned 14% annually. 11.2% adjusted for inflation. Not sure why you would want to get out of equities.
15 years ago in 2009, the CAPE10 was at 16 to 19 and the Buffett Indicator was at 56% to 77%, both strong indicators of upcoming periods of very good returns. Today, CAPE10 is around 36 and the Buffett Indicator is at 156%, both indicators of upcoming periods of very poor returns. If you believe the "things are different this time" hypothesis, US markets could return ~ 14 % annually for the next 10-20 years. Buyer beware...
Also of note, Berkshire Hathaway is sitting on $300B in cash. I wonder what those folks are thinking? 😀
15 years ago in 2009, the CAPE10 was at 16 to 19 and the Buffett Indicator was at 56% to 77%, both strong indicators of upcoming periods of very good returns. Today, CAPE10 is around 36 and the Buffett Indicator is at 156%, both indicators of upcoming periods of very poor returns. If you believe the "things are different this time" hypothesis, US markets could return ~ 14 % annually for the next 10-20 years. Buyer beware...
Also of note, Berkshire Hathaway is sitting on $300B in cash. I wonder what those folks are thinking? 😀
All the metrics I've looked at indicate the market is overbought... Considering Berkshire is holding record numbers of cash and not buying anything is pretty telling too I think... I expect there to be a 10% pullback from all time highs at some point over the next 6 months. One of my associates (who has a very different approach than me) thinks the same. We will see though.
Flagpole, I have some very bad news for you. Very, very bad.
Brace yourself.... And here it is:
"Nov 1 (Reuters) - AI chip firm Nvidia will replace chipmaker Intel in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P Dow Jones Indices said on Friday. (Reporting by Akash Sriram in Bengaluru; Editing by Maju Samuel)"
Your days of beating the Dow are soon to be a thing of the past. Over. Nevermore.
Nvidia, which is up big already on the day, jumped another 3% on the news afterhours.
It was good while it lasted, FP. But the 'A-Team' just came to town.
don't stocks that get added to indices tend to tank?
Someone did an analysis and if I remember correctly if you bought the stocks that were *dropped* from the DJIA you'd do better than the actual DJIA.
Idea is that by the time the DJIA committee decides a stock has to go, everyone who has sold has already sold and the stock was ripe for a rebound.
And in the reverse....my memory is that in the tech bubble they added some tech companies and dropped old line mfgring companies...only to have those tech companies fall 50% or more. And if they hadn't dropped the mfgring companies, the DJIA would have been much higher 2002-2012. Because the mfgring companies didn't drop as much as the tech.
Good question, and the answer is uncertain.
One way to approach it is just gut level appraisal of the situation - do you want to compete against a team with Intel on it or one with Nvidia? Enough said.
But if you are considering historical trends based on inclusion in an index, one would have to acknowledge that Nvidia is a bit of an outlier due to it's size - it is the second largest company on the stock market based on it's market cap, behind only Apple (at the current time). And the effect of inclusion would tend to be diminished due to its shear size, as in deluting the impact due to the number of shares that are already trading.
And lastly, a little research indicates that companies being added to the an index tended to have a spike upward after the announcement but prior to the actual date of inclusion, and after inclusion, the rise was far less comparatively. One caveat, though, this finding was based on inclusion to S&P500, not DJIA, and the article discussing it is linked below.
The article also notes that in recent years, the impacts of inclusion in an index have lessened, and so much so, it is rather negligable, for both the days leading up to inclusion and post inclusion.
With all that said, though, my gut is that Nvidia is a rule-breaker and with the DJIA to soon include MSFT, AMZN, and NVDA, it might be a bit harder to beat.
Flagpole, I have some very bad news for you. Very, very bad.
Brace yourself.... And here it is:
"Nov 1 (Reuters) - AI chip firm Nvidia will replace chipmaker Intel in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P Dow Jones Indices said on Friday. (Reporting by Akash Sriram in Bengaluru; Editing by Maju Samuel)"
Your days of beating the Dow are soon to be a thing of the past. Over. Nevermore.
Nvidia, which is up big already on the day, jumped another 3% on the news afterhours.
It was good while it lasted, FP. But the 'A-Team' just came to town.
Not bad news at all. Neutral news. I don't have a GOAL to beat the Dow. The only thing that really matters is my annual return average over time. I just PICKED the Dow very early on as the index to judge my annual returns against. It is nothing more than that. I could lose to the Dow every year from here on out and I wouldn't care all.
Hey Flagpole, just checking in sweetheart, seeing how you're doing. You must be terrified. I'll be back on Wednesday to rub Trump winning in your face! :)
1) I'm not terrified at all. Harris is going to win.
2) Nah, you won't be back here to rub anything in my face. Trump will lose.
13 keys was wrong on the popular vote in 2016 (when Trump won, need you reminding, beating crooked Hilary) and is wrong again now. If you are unable to use common sense, logic, and critical thinking, only blindly following a fringe theory that was dead wrong two elections ago, then I have no more use in speaking with you.
To answer your question, 13 keys was wrong in 2016, as a vast majority of polls have been over at minimum the past two election cycles. Trump is outperforming his 2016 and 2020 polls, especially in key swing states. Trump lost by ~40K votes in total (between swing states) in 2020 and is trending significantly better than that now.
Again, if all you look at is 13 keys (which, AGAIN, was wrong in 2016), I can see why you are saying what you're saying. Use a bit of common sense here to see that there is more to the picture and you will not look like such an ignorant fool.
It doesn't seem that you are capable of doing that, so I bid you farewell and will see you in 2 months when you're crying back on this same thread :)
You are correct about the Keys getting it wrong in 2016 (though Lichtman himself said Trump would win...he was right about that, just not right in the way that his keys predict). I never said it was perfect. It IS the most accurate predictor there is, however, going back to 1860, his model has only been wrong twice.
Not sure what you are hanging your hat on. Harris is up even in Fox News' latest poll. She is ahead in the polls in enough swing states to win. She is close enough in NC to make it interesting, she is trending up, the abortion issue is a KILLER for Trump. The UAW is backing Harris. Teamsters aren't backing either. Women and young voters will overwhelmingly vote for Harris. Polling in recent years has greatly under represented Democrats...and again, the best predictor we have, the 13 Keys AND its author, Allan Lichtman, both say she will win. It's no fringe theory. The model picked the winner back to 1860, only missing twice.
There is not more to the picture. We're not in a recession. The stock market is at an all time high, jobs for everyone. Republicans have had it handed to them in every national election since 2016 and in the vast majority of state elections since Roe v. Wade was tabled. Trump is old, and he looks and acts like it. He's also a convicted felon and tried to overturn a fair election. Many Republicans said that was a bridge too far...at least they thought something was too far. Dick Cheney voting for Harris gives diehard traditional Republicans the offramp to do so also.
Harris will win. It's over, and you will do nothing and like it.
Hi Flagpole, back just like I said I would be. Hope all is well :)
