Intermediate treasuries up 9% from this tweet. So good call. that's a nice profit from fixed income.
But on the other hand, stocks up 44%
So some opportunity cost there.
Carl Quintanilla @carlquintanilla VANGUARD: "We think that from a pure-risk reward perspective, allocating into bonds, even at the 10-year point, makes a lot of sense here.” @FT
Everyone was forecasting recession a year ago but heavy truck sales forecasted differently and this indicator was correct.
Seth Golden @SethCL Trust the Trucks: Heavy Duty Truck Sales growing 15%+ on semiannual basis. Only 1nce since 1966 has a recession followed within forward 1-year.
Speaking of history and the economy, I've always felt that the post WW2 inflation was the best parallel to the current post covid inflation.
Same thing happened: Shut down supply chains, spend a ton of money, have a lot of people try to spend all their money at once while supply chains were weak. Brought on inflation in both instances, but there was nothing inherently sick with the economy so supply chains got back in shape, people ran out of household reserves, and inflation came down. We're seeing this now, as they saw it in the late 1940s.
Post See new posts Conversation Carl Quintanilla @carlquintanilla GARZARELLI CAPITAL: Today’s disinflation is “a mirror image of what happened after WWII .. there was a pause in inflation’s downtrend .. lasted for several months, and then .. resumed .. we are experiencing a similar pause and see inflation following a similar path downward ..”
Last edited 5:47 PM · Apr 19, 2024 · 126K Views
This post was edited 12 minutes after it was posted.
Should be interesting where it goes from here with Alphabet releasing earnings after the close. And not to forget Meta and Microsoft after the bell on Wednesday. Lots to watch...
And speaking of which, nibbled on some more Meta today in advance of some hopefully good earnings/future quarter projections from them.
But that aside, you know, it's all about beating that other indices - the Dow - while we mark time in this "bear market rally".
it does seem that the 'trump wins' trade is buy big tech hand over fist.
one interesting trade is to buy European stocks the day of the election...they are beaten down on the expectation of tariffs hurting them. But that's in the stock already so if trump wins they shouldn't fall much if at all...but if Harris wins they should bounce nicely on the prospect of no tariffs.
Robinhood is allowing you to bet on the election outcome with derivative contracts.
Sketchy accounting throughout corporate America this era. How can you blame them when the ethical lapses are a national epidemic? Get what’s coming to you. Everyone gets a medal.
the amazing part is that I know people alive today who still feel that day in their bones. Well, really the Depression not the crash. But that period formed millions of habits and worldviews.
If you are in your 90s you were there and knew what it was like. Those people still walk among us. Well, more likely roll among us, but the point stands.
My parents were young children then and it effected them profoundly. Though they are no longer with us, it imparted very deep principals about finances, work ethic, frugality, and I should say, in the case of one of them, to an almost extreme level.
I know that I have some of those traits, and it's apparent where I got them.
That outlook and attitude only make sense in the context of The Great Depression.
So, I would say that it's lessons and impacts exist even today, and I suppose some of my propensities are directly attributable to it, even today.
I was all set to respond this when I received a surprising text from my youngest sister. My nephew (her son) has started going through my late mother's slide collection. The first batch he processed was from 1970 and showed me when I was channeling Jim Morrison (actually, he wasn't dead yet). So I'll start there.
I started working in the late 60s, therefore some of my co-workers were in their early 20s in 1929. In 1969-70 I was working part time at a grocery store. Every Sunday over night I would wash and wax the floors* with this older full timer. He only had a couple of years left before he was 65 and retired. On our breaks he would tell me some of his past history. His family owned a wholesale produce business in Hudson County NJ and went out of business in the 30s.He later owned a mom-pop grocery store but sold it in the early 50s and went to work for the large grocery chain where we worked now. To say he was frugal was an understatement. He drove an old AMC Rambler and was ur-grunge (his flannel shirts looked like he pulled them out of a donation bin). Yet he lived in one of the most expensive towns in Bergen County, owned an antique shop his wife ran and owned outright a number of rental properties! Yet he would b!tch about the night crew chief grabbing all the over time (which he was entitled). He had definitely been scarred by the Depression.
*We use to use Spic n Span to clean the floors. One night he decides to add bleach because the floors were a mess from a snowstorm. I had to stop him, Spic n Span contains ammonia and when combined with bleach creates a toxic gas.
My parents were young children then and it effected them profoundly. Though they are no longer with us, it imparted very deep principals about finances, work ethic, frugality, and I should say, in the case of one of them, to an almost extreme level.
I know that I have some of those traits, and it's apparent where I got them.
That outlook and attitude only make sense in the context of The Great Depression.
So, I would say that it's lessons and impacts exist even today, and I suppose some of my propensities are directly attributable to it, even today.
I was all set to respond this when I received a surprising text from my youngest sister. My nephew (her son) has started going through my late mother's slide collection. The first batch he processed was from 1970 and showed me when I was channeling Jim Morrison (actually, he wasn't dead yet). So I'll start there.
I started working in the late 60s, therefore some of my co-workers were in their early 20s in 1929. In 1969-70 I was working part time at a grocery store. Every Sunday over night I would wash and wax the floors* with this older full timer. He only had a couple of years left before he was 65 and retired. On our breaks he would tell me some of his past history. His family owned a wholesale produce business in Hudson County NJ and went out of business in the 30s.He later owned a mom-pop grocery store but sold it in the early 50s and went to work for the large grocery chain where we worked now. To say he was frugal was an understatement. He drove an old AMC Rambler and was ur-grunge (his flannel shirts looked like he pulled them out of a donation bin). Yet he lived in one of the most expensive towns in Bergen County, owned an antique shop his wife ran and owned outright a number of rental properties! Yet he would b!tch about the night crew chief grabbing all the over time (which he was entitled). He had definitely been scarred by the Depression.
*We use to use Spic n Span to clean the floors. One night he decides to add bleach because the floors were a mess from a snowstorm. I had to stop him, Spic n Span contains ammonia and when combined with bleach creates a toxic gas.
Yeah my grandparents were born around 1905 so they had to be parents during the depression. They managed to keep their little grocery store in Detroit open. But the rest of their life they were very very strict savers, always ready for the next one. Refused to pay for parking, paid a lot of attention to politics, revered FDR. Not great consumers.
One interesting thing...for the people with comfortable jobs with decent salary....the Great Depression was fine. Even a good time. Prices were falling all the time, after all, so their salaries bought more and more stuff. And mentally you felt better off than your peers, which is usually good for mental health. And even with 25% unemployment, that left a majority of the country with solid jobs.
Similarly, for those who survived the Black Death (1348) and COVID, things were pretty good.
This post was edited 13 minutes after it was posted.
Interesting thread here from a year ago from Moody's Zandi.
At the time, rates were spiking but he wasnt' worried about stocks. Because he said the surge in rates was due to economic strength, not inflation.
He said the 10 year would fall back to 4%ish.
And he was right - stocks +40%+ since the tweet.
and the 10 year fell back to 4%ish.
nice call!
If you had told me a few months ago that today 10-year Treasury yields would be near 5% and mortgage rates over 8%, I probably would have told you that the stock market would be down big and the economy headed to recession. While that still could happen, odds are good that it…
Well, we know his EPS call was wrong for Q3. It's currently at $189.20!
Marvelous what $1.5 Trillion added to the deficit thru the Inflation Reduction Act will do to subsidize S&P 500 EPS. Just delays the inevitable, not the collapse, as I stated months ago.
Agip can you bookmark this for one year? :-)
DGTD Bet Resolution!
From 10/31/23
Igy asked me to bookmark this. I don't really know what the prediction was, but it looks like Igy thought SP500 earnings would be bad.
Resolution: SP500 earnings were *not* bad.
So, even without knowing the details of this bet, I'm going to say Igy was wrong.
I was all set to respond this when I received a surprising text from my youngest sister. My nephew (her son) has started going through my late mother's slide collection. The first batch he processed was from 1970 and showed me when I was channeling Jim Morrison (actually, he wasn't dead yet). So I'll start there.
I started working in the late 60s, therefore some of my co-workers were in their early 20s in 1929. In 1969-70 I was working part time at a grocery store. Every Sunday over night I would wash and wax the floors* with this older full timer. He only had a couple of years left before he was 65 and retired. On our breaks he would tell me some of his past history. His family owned a wholesale produce business in Hudson County NJ and went out of business in the 30s.He later owned a mom-pop grocery store but sold it in the early 50s and went to work for the large grocery chain where we worked now. To say he was frugal was an understatement. He drove an old AMC Rambler and was ur-grunge (his flannel shirts looked like he pulled them out of a donation bin). Yet he lived in one of the most expensive towns in Bergen County, owned an antique shop his wife ran and owned outright a number of rental properties! Yet he would b!tch about the night crew chief grabbing all the over time (which he was entitled). He had definitely been scarred by the Depression.
*We use to use Spic n Span to clean the floors. One night he decides to add bleach because the floors were a mess from a snowstorm. I had to stop him, Spic n Span contains ammonia and when combined with bleach creates a toxic gas.
Yeah my grandparents were born around 1905 so they had to be parents during the depression. They managed to keep their little grocery store in Detroit open. But the rest of their life they were very very strict savers, always ready for the next one. Refused to pay for parking, paid a lot of attention to politics, revered FDR. Not great consumers.
One interesting thing...for the people with comfortable jobs with decent salary....the Great Depression was fine. Even a good time. Prices were falling all the time, after all, so their salaries bought more and more stuff. And mentally you felt better off than your peers, which is usually good for mental health. And even with 25% unemployment, that left a majority of the country with solid jobs.
Similarly, for those who survived the Black Death (1348) and COVID, things were pretty good.
My mother and her family (large family) also weathered the Great Depression as owners of a neighborhood grocery store in one of the neighborhoods of Boston. They said that they didn't have much but there was always something to eat.
What I gather from their experience was that they developed a strong sense of pitching in and doing their part and appreciating that the others were doing the same. The children were expected to do a lot, and did. And they also developed a sense that there had to be a better life and set about attaining it for themselves and for their future familes of their own.
My mother tragically lost her parents in 1923. She was raised by her grandparents by the time the Depression rolled around. They had chickens, cow, and grew their own vegetables, so they were alright. My father’s family was not so fortunate, my grandfather was a coal miner, and the mine closed. Everyone picked up the slack with odd jobs here and there, my father working at a dairy. Two of his brothers got jobs in the Civilian Conservation Corp. Later stages of the Depression my father hopped a train to Los Angeles and worked as a painter.
I remember one jingle from that period: “Waste not, want not. For I may live to say ‘I wish I had the bread crust I once threw away.’”
This post was edited 37 seconds after it was posted.
Yeah my grandparents were born around 1905 so they had to be parents during the depression. They managed to keep their little grocery store in Detroit open. But the rest of their life they were very very strict savers, always ready for the next one. Refused to pay for parking, paid a lot of attention to politics, revered FDR. Not great consumers.
One interesting thing...for the people with comfortable jobs with decent salary....the Great Depression was fine. Even a good time. Prices were falling all the time, after all, so their salaries bought more and more stuff. And mentally you felt better off than your peers, which is usually good for mental health. And even with 25% unemployment, that left a majority of the country with solid jobs.
Similarly, for those who survived the Black Death (1348) and COVID, things were pretty good.
My mother and her family (large family) also weathered the Great Depression as owners of a neighborhood grocery store in one of the neighborhoods of Boston. They said that they didn't have much but there was always something to eat.
What I gather from their experience was that they developed a strong sense of pitching in and doing their part and appreciating that the others were doing the same. The children were expected to do a lot, and did. And they also developed a sense that there had to be a better life and set about attaining it for themselves and for their future familes of their own.
My mother was born in 1929, the following year her father purchased a farm in NJ. He was able to pay off the mortgage in 3 years. He had a successful business delivering food to clients in NYC. WWII ruined him. Before the war there was a vast amount of cheap labor, all that disappeared with the demand for the armed services and war industries. There were 2 older brothers in their 20s from his 1st wife, but one was in the army and the other had TB and was hospitalized for years. My mother was the 2nd oldest from the 2nd wife, she had 2 brothers, one was 17 and the other 11 when the war ended. They were young and in school, therefore weren't much help around the farm. She said her father would only allow the lights to stay on for 2 hours after supper to keep the energy bills down.
My father's (he was born in 23) father inherited a decent sum of money in the early 20s when his sister passed away and he was the sole beneficiary of her life insurance policy. My grandmother made him buy a house with cash. He had a good job as a supervisor at a meat packing plant and the family story was he left that job and then had a job delivering packages left at the train station. After my father and all his siblings passed away, my mother told me the real story. My grandfather was Irish Catholic and the plant manger was Irish Protestant, one day they got into an argument and my grandfather called his boss a b@stard Irishman. He was fired. She also said he ran numbers for a while, but a local cop tipped him off that they were on to him, so he stopped. After my mother passed away, my nephew (the same one going through the slides) that has access to past news articles revealed that my grandfather had been arrested in the late 40s for taking bets on horse races. He was in his 60s and only had to pay a fine.
After the war, my father began taking night classes in subjects he needed to get into college. In high school he took classes for what they called commercial business. His mother and older brother told him he was wasting his time and should stay where he was because that company never laid anyone off during the Depression. He listened to them, but told me if his older brother KIA had lived, his brother would have pushed attending college. Of course, if my father went to college I wouldn't be here. It's also interesting that despite not attending college my father became an auditor. In regards to my not being here, after the war my father wanted to marry one of his service buddy's sister in WI. Her father was Lutheran and said no way was his daughter marrying a Roman Catholic. When my mother told her mother (she was born in the US but conceived in England) she was engaged to my father, she told her she would be barefoot and pregnant the rest of her life. My father always joked that she always had shoes.
My second cousin sent me this piece a few days ago on the deaths of my grandparents, It was a hand written account from my grandmother’s oldest brother:
“My sister that lived a couple of miles from us on a farm gave birth to her third child which was born dead and in just a few days she passed away. Her husband George took it awful hard so his mother took the 2 children to her home.
His sisters and mother would come in for a few days at a time to help him. Then Pearl and I went to the farm and stayed with him but all he would talk about was his wife, blaming himself for everything.
One day he told us to go home that he wanted to be alone. So we went home and not to long after his father went down to see him. He wasn’t in the house but there was a good fire in the stove so he went to the barn and couldn’t find him. George liked to hunt rabbits and quail so his Dad went to look for his shotgun to see if it was gone. It was not there so he thought he would wait a while. It was starting to get late in the evening and decided to look in the hay loft as George sometimes took naps there.
He finally went to the building where he kept his truck and stepped on the back tire to look in. There was George lying on a canvas, so his father thinking he was asleep, shook him then seeing the shotgun by his side knew what happened. It was 3 months to the day that his wife had died.
George and my sister were well known for miles around and those two funerals were the largest I ever attended.
Soon there was a sale date set for all the livestock, machinery, household goods and everything brought a good price. The proceeds were put in a trust fund for the two children until they became of age. The grandmother raised them both. The boy while serving in the army was killed and the girl got married, sent her husband to school and he is a practicing dentist in California.”
This post was edited 2 minutes after it was posted.
Great stories everyone. They feel cinematic/novelesque. So many remarkable events and tragedies in their lives.
I like to think of my family as classic...Of my four grandparents, 3 were born in the US (although one with immigrant parents) and 1 in Europe. We all have thrived in this nation and lived the dream.
My mom's side quickly left the East Coast when they arrived in the early 20c, went to the Midwest and seems to have thrived in small businesses. They joined country clubs and were comfortable.
My dad's side struggled more, and moved around trying to make a living after landing in the early 20c. The Detroit grocery store was the main thing, but there were other tries and fails in other cities.
The family story is that my father's father was a brilliant man but was born in Europe and had mediocre English, and never quite found a career matching his brains. Being of prime working age during the depression no doubt hurt him.
Except: He believed in investing. He bought stocks back in the 40s and 50s and onwards, so despite never making much money at work, he died a millionaire in the 1980s. Which made an impression on me, and I'm sure made me a believer in investing. He bought some Intel shares for me in the 1980s...made money on them but wish I had held them through to the 90s.
My father was the first in the family to go to college, and he became a lawyer.
But the core of the family wealth, whatever there was, came from good investments made by my poor depression-bit grandfather.
And the fact we've not had even a single divorce in the family in at least 3 generations. That helps keep a family's finances together.
Another family story is that my father's mother was apparently a glamourous and active lefty during the depression but that's a story for another time.
This post was edited 11 minutes after it was posted.
I don't know about you, GoI and the others; but it always seems at a repast or at a bar (on the Irish side) after a wake, some family "secrets"get revealed.
Bob Elliott @BobEUnlimited The markets are still pricing in a near 100% probability of a soft landing. Expectations are for rapid earnings growth, no credit issues, inflation at 2%, oil px fall, modest Fed cuts and secularly high real rates. First S&P500 earnings growth, expected to be 12% for '24 & '25: