“4% annualized returns for the world's dominant stock index would be pretty lame, and I think I can currently do better with bonds, with better returns and far less volatility. I would love the markets to drop 40-60% and give a new buy-in opportunity, and I think that day will come, but don't know when... could be this year, could be in 10 years.”
With what money would you buy in? You are having to re-invest bond interest to compound and keep pace with the equity markets, no?
And doesn’t that presume the future opportunities to re-invest at the original rate?
Of course much was left unwritten in my earlier comments, but of course one must think about what to do with the cash paid out over time. But that’s a tomorrow problem. Of course I can’t assume it can be reinvested at the same rate, I’ll need to decide when the time comes. I’m faced with exactly that problem over the next 5 years, with a lot of cash being generated, some relatively uniform over time (bond and GIC income) and some lumpy (maturing instruments). I have a high conviction target portfolio ready in the event equities have become sufficiently less expensive, and will continue to buy bonds if they remain good value, relative to my objectives.
I'm staying largely short-term to maintain liquidity. I will be DAMN ready if and when an excellent opportunity presents itself.
And if it does, and if I hit it, I will sell out of it just as quickly as I bought in.
It’s just electioneering. It’s all about making promises, then blaming it on others when you don’t deliver.
The critique of Biden-Harris economics is to import illegal immigrants to be cheap labor, consumers, and future voters. This has a short term economic benefit for businesses, and the economy. The obvious negative is continued large deficits, upside down government balance sheet local, state, and Federal. Continued funding of the lemonade stand and driving fake markets higher. The short sightedness of how the Country is managed, and the starkly weird policies only serve the rich and powerful. Maserati was on to this early on, and I never thought they would skate free. How wrong I was.
Yeah I have seen it all, and yet I am still here--a US resident, with US tax situs, with US investments, including government instruments.
Like any investment, the import of people is not without uncertainty and risk. It is politically possible, but not logically possible, to articulate a position that can be sold to the public.
Sure you could only let in rich people and have them pay their own way, but that doesn't last, and you really have to look closely to see if they are actually paying all of their expenses. And they usually don't develop anything, so there is no wealth creation going forward.
You can only let in the "educated", but that's a total crapshoot. Lots of so-called "education", isn't--it's indoctrination or acculturation, which are different beasts from education, and manifest differently in terms of integration. And verification of ability is difficult. And entrepreneurship and/or motivation is a personal trait and has nothing to do with "education" or training level. Again, net wealth creation is uncertain.
So what happens if uneducated and untrained people come in? If enough come, one could assume that they would embody all types of personalities, and that their numbers would add to our fabric. Sure the first generation may be welfare fraudsters, but who's to say that their kids/grandkids will be the same. Things develop over time. I personally see nothing wrong with the "quality" of immigrants flooding over the border, even if their educational qualifications are zero, or faked--as long as that fraud doesn't carry over to what they do while here. And sometimes this is done just to get across a border, then they normalize.
Of course real criminals are another story. I have no idea who is coming, and neither does anybody else. One hears of prisons being emptied onto buses and Doctors Without Borders giving them guidebooks on what to do when they get here. Who knows. Really, as a group, can they be any worse, either financially, morally, or spiritually, than Congress?
tldr: maybe what we are seeing now are just temporary growing pains. What we cannot do is erode the basic system that will permit all sorts of people to flourish.
For us, Switzerland and Monaco are promising. Maybe we're leaning toward Monaco, where we will have the lowest annual income of any resident, lol. Would rent rather than buy, to stay liquid.
But even Monaco has serious flaws. Pick your poison. Right now I am in beautiful fall leaves, on a track with the football team on the practice field and the cheerleaders on the other side of me. 80+ degrees, sun is shining, air is good, I am well fed and healthy, nobody's shooting at me (yet)...
The critique of Biden-Harris economics is to import illegal immigrants to be cheap labor, consumers, and future voters. This has a short term economic benefit for businesses, and the economy. The obvious negative is continued large deficits, upside down government balance sheet local, state, and Federal. Continued funding of the lemonade stand and driving fake markets higher. The short sightedness of how the Country is managed, and the starkly weird policies only serve the rich and powerful. Maserati was on to this early on, and I never thought they would skate free. How wrong I was.
Yeah I have seen it all, and yet I am still here--a US resident, with US tax situs, with US investments, including government instruments.
Like any investment, the import of people is not without uncertainty and risk. It is politically possible, but not logically possible, to articulate a position that can be sold to the public.
Sure you could only let in rich people and have them pay their own way, but that doesn't last, and you really have to look closely to see if they are actually paying all of their expenses. And they usually don't develop anything, so there is no wealth creation going forward.
You can only let in the "educated", but that's a total crapshoot. Lots of so-called "education", isn't--it's indoctrination or acculturation, which are different beasts from education, and manifest differently in terms of integration. And verification of ability is difficult. And entrepreneurship and/or motivation is a personal trait and has nothing to do with "education" or training level. Again, net wealth creation is uncertain.
So what happens if uneducated and untrained people come in? If enough come, one could assume that they would embody all types of personalities, and that their numbers would add to our fabric. Sure the first generation may be welfare fraudsters, but who's to say that their kids/grandkids will be the same. Things develop over time. I personally see nothing wrong with the "quality" of immigrants flooding over the border, even if their educational qualifications are zero, or faked--as long as that fraud doesn't carry over to what they do while here. And sometimes this is done just to get across a border, then they normalize.
Of course real criminals are another story. I have no idea who is coming, and neither does anybody else. One hears of prisons being emptied onto buses and Doctors Without Borders giving them guidebooks on what to do when they get here. Who knows. Really, as a group, can they be any worse, either financially, morally, or spiritually, than Congress?
tldr: maybe what we are seeing now are just temporary growing pains. What we cannot do is erode the basic system that will permit all sorts of people to flourish.
an interesting angle on the 'do we take educated or uneducated immigrants' the answer is complicated,
if you are educated in your home country, in your home language...you are probably used to working at a relatively prestigious job.
then you get to america, without english, without a US college degree, without US behavoural patterns...and the only work you can get is far beneath what you think you deserve.
So you don't work at all, out of pride. And you are too old to learn English very well.
Whereas if you let in young, hungry, desperate poor people, they have no qualms about work and are ready to take American wages for just about anything. And then their kids go to college and vavavoom they are in the middle class.
It's complicated. but the answer isn't always 'handpick your immigrants and choose the educated, skilled ones.'
This post was edited 1 minute after it was posted.
Yeah I have seen it all, and yet I am still here--a US resident, with US tax situs, with US investments, including government instruments.
Like any investment, the import of people is not without uncertainty and risk. It is politically possible, but not logically possible, to articulate a position that can be sold to the public.
Sure you could only let in rich people and have them pay their own way, but that doesn't last, and you really have to look closely to see if they are actually paying all of their expenses. And they usually don't develop anything, so there is no wealth creation going forward.
You can only let in the "educated", but that's a total crapshoot. Lots of so-called "education", isn't--it's indoctrination or acculturation, which are different beasts from education, and manifest differently in terms of integration. And verification of ability is difficult. And entrepreneurship and/or motivation is a personal trait and has nothing to do with "education" or training level. Again, net wealth creation is uncertain.
So what happens if uneducated and untrained people come in? If enough come, one could assume that they would embody all types of personalities, and that their numbers would add to our fabric. Sure the first generation may be welfare fraudsters, but who's to say that their kids/grandkids will be the same. Things develop over time. I personally see nothing wrong with the "quality" of immigrants flooding over the border, even if their educational qualifications are zero, or faked--as long as that fraud doesn't carry over to what they do while here. And sometimes this is done just to get across a border, then they normalize.
Of course real criminals are another story. I have no idea who is coming, and neither does anybody else. One hears of prisons being emptied onto buses and Doctors Without Borders giving them guidebooks on what to do when they get here. Who knows. Really, as a group, can they be any worse, either financially, morally, or spiritually, than Congress?
tldr: maybe what we are seeing now are just temporary growing pains. What we cannot do is erode the basic system that will permit all sorts of people to flourish.
an interesting angle on the 'do we take educated or uneducated immigrants' the answer is complicated,
if you are educated in your home country, in your home language...you are probably used to working at a relatively prestigious job.
then you get to america, without english, without a US college degree, without US behavoural patterns...and the only work you can get is far beneath what you think you deserve.
So you don't work at all, out of pride. And you are too old to learn English very well.
Whereas if you let in young, hungry, desperate poor people, they have no qualms about work and are ready to take American wages for just about anything. And then their kids go to college and vavavoom they are in the middle class.
It's complicated. but the answer isn't always 'handpick your immigrants and choose the educated, skilled ones.'
What about that provision that was in effect for awhile and still may be that allows immigrants access in fields if an employer of said immigrant vouches that the individual holds skills that the employer cannot fill from applicants in the US? I understand that a lot of very proficient tech workers have historically been granted this status.
Granted, this isn't really my field of expertise, but I do recall hearing about it.
“Things develop over time. I personally see nothing wrong with the "quality" of immigrants flooding over the border, even if their educational qualifications are zero, or faked--as long as that fraud doesn't carry over to what they do while here.”
Well, when you allow the breaking of immigration laws, and then illegally pay them subsistence to live in this Country, you are subsidizing fraud. I haven’t even touched the illegal voting issue.
Ok but a year ago economists thought there was a 100% chance of a recession. 100%. No chance of being wrong. And that was a short term prediction. Now here's GS trying to predict 10 years of equity and bond returns. Absurd.
modest proposal @modestproposal1 · 6h Goldman strategists calculate a 72% probability that 10 year treasuries outperform the S&P 500 over the next decade
This post was edited 34 seconds after it was posted.
Goldman strategists calculate a 72% probability that 10 year treasuries outperform the S&P 500 over the next decade
That seems about right. Keep in mind, though, 72% probability is far from a sure thing. Just ask Hillary. 🙂
10 year forecasts are absurd by their very nature.
Here, take a look at this white paper from 2017, giving the firm's 7 year forecast. from GMO. All very well researched, well based in financial history, based on valuation..
in august 2017 (so a period ending right now), GMO officially forecast a 7 year return of -3.9% per year for US stocks after inflation.
Now we know the result: +14.55%/year nominal, so say 11% real.
THat's a rather astonishing 15% PER YEAR swing in returns .
And this is GMO, not some dude with a newsletter.
This is why I check forecasts. So I don't get scared by things like GS's rough forecast of stock returns. From all this work I can see that even the most researched and reasonable forecasts are meaningless
That seems about right. Keep in mind, though, 72% probability is far from a sure thing. Just ask Hillary. 🙂
10 year forecasts are absurd by their very nature.
Here, take a look at this white paper from 2017, giving the firm's 7 year forecast. from GMO. All very well researched, well based in financial history, based on valuation..
in august 2017 (so a period ending right now), GMO officially forecast a 7 year return of -3.9% per year for US stocks after inflation.
Now we know the result: +14.55%/year nominal, so say 11% real.
THat's a rather astonishing 15% PER YEAR swing in returns .
And this is GMO, not some dude with a newsletter.
This is why I check forecasts. So I don't get scared by things like GS's rough forecast of stock returns. From all this work I can see that even the most researched and reasonable forecasts are meaningless
I doubt few if anyone on Wall Street thought we would be at 5,800 and a $35.7 Trillion deficit. Or any of the crazy things that have happened in the intervening years, including but not limited to legitimizing men competing in women’s sports.
This thread is so beyond reality its amazing. Biden and Powell just soft landed this B*tch and yall r whining because u were wrong. The Macros r good. This is a copium overdose
"i swear guys next year there will be a recession"
Standard & Poor's credit rating for Mexico stands at BBB with stable outlook. Moody's credit rating for Mexico was last set at Baa2 with stable outlook. DBRS' credit rating for Mexico was last reported at BBB with stable outl...
