Refresher Econ 101 from Mises: “Inflation is a policy. And a policy can be changed. Therefore, there is no reason to give in to inflation. If one regards inflation as an evil, then one has to stop inflating. One has to balance the budget…”
countries don't have to balance the budget, that's nonsense.
countries absolutely should borrow to invest in the future.
The US has proven that countries can have a low inflation economy while running deficits.
Refresher Econ 101 from Mises: “Inflation is a policy. And a policy can be changed. Therefore, there is no reason to give in to inflation. If one regards inflation as an evil, then one has to stop inflating. One has to balance the budget…”
countries don't have to balance the budget, that's nonsense.
countries absolutely should borrow to invest in the future.
The US has proven that countries can have a low inflation economy while running deficits.
Countries don’t have to do anything. Creating fake demand through government mandates and unhinged spending is not only wasteful, it also creates inflation. So called investment has largely been boondoggles as demonstrated the last couple weeks by revelations of FEMA projects to settle illegal immigrants thru DEI grants to NGOs. Stupid beyond belief. Likely criminal (should be in your crime blotter on another thread).
This post was edited 3 minutes after it was posted.
Solid call here. SP500 +11% from this tweet just 5 months ago.
Post See new posts Conversation Carl Quintanilla @carlquintanilla YARDENI: “.. Earnings Are Blooming .. the Fed Put is back. With it comes increased risk of a stock market meltup. .. S&P 500 forward earnings are well correlated with actual earnings ..”
mas, do you know any classmates in NYC? We were there earlier this year and got caught up with a couple of guys, and one of them was later at our place for dinner. He mentioned that somebody from the grad association was trying to come up with a list of grads (any class) in NYC, and there must be a bunch of them hiding in the woodwork. If you feel like reaching out offline, my gmail is firstnamelastname2022 (with my actual names in place).
From your favorite financial writer. OK, you have been warned. :-)
In July, I wrote "any further highs from these levels are likely to be minimal. In contrast, current valuation extremes imply potential downside on the order of 50-70% over the completion of this cycle."
For the last 15 years he has said the markets are going to tank. 15 years ago the Nasdaq was around 1,200. It is at 18,500. Guess he has missed the boat on that one. Or rather missed the boat on the last 15 annual departures. Anyone who would follow this clown is beyond a fool.
this was from 18 months ago...the market was forecasting at the time 200 bps of cuts...we got 50. Markets are often wrong.
Alf @MacroAlf The bond market is pricing almost 200 bps worth of Fed cuts over the next 18 months. This is by far the biggest amount of cumulative Fed cuts the bond market ever priced in over the last 37 years.
I also just heard TruValue is going out of business and Walgreens is closing something like 1400 stores... I realize the economy churns, successful businesses absorb business from weaker businesses, etc, but I'm still not convinced these aren't signs of alarm in the US economy. With new all time highs yesterday, the stock market seems overbought to me. Doesn't affect me much as I always just buy and hold, but now doesn't seem like a good entry point, and I would pause any dollar cost averaging. Only time will tell though.
Rather than signaling a time to sell US and buy EM it was the reverse. Although both investments did well. Trends can continue for a long time. Longer than you can stay solvent, eh.
Since this tweet:
US +36%
Emerging: +24%
Barchart @Barchart Emerging Market Stocks have fallen to their lowest valuation relative to the S&P 500 in AT LEAST 36 years
I also just heard TruValue is going out of business and Walgreens is closing something like 1400 stores... I realize the economy churns, successful businesses absorb business from weaker businesses, etc, but I'm still not convinced these aren't signs of alarm in the US economy. With new all time highs yesterday, the stock market seems overbought to me. Doesn't affect me much as I always just buy and hold, but now doesn't seem like a good entry point, and I would pause any dollar cost averaging. Only time will tell though.
retail sales have been solid. Same store sales up in the 5-6% range. retailing stocks up in the 33% range over the past year.
As you wrote...the US is a creative destruction economy. It's always chewing up bad businesses and spitting them out. The win from that is better businesses and more prosperity in general.
Few signs of alarm in the US right now. A weakening labor market is probably the most alarming but geez it's hard to keep making new jobs and finding people to fill them when a nation has been at full employment for years and wages keep rising faster than inflation. Labor is expensive in this country.
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generic bonds are up 11% since this tweet a year ago.
Peter Berezin @PeterBerezinBCA Bond yields tend to peak around the time of the last Fed rate hike. I don’t expect any more rate hikes, which is why I turned positive on bonds recently.
Pomboy is one of the most 'sky is falling' of all the 'sky is falling' people.
Anyway, guess what she was worried about the economy in Jan 24.
guess what her fears did not materialize into anything real.
1/3 As the mkts eventually figured out, this a.m.'s emp report was hideous. The increase in headline payrolls owed a huge debt (again) to govt. And the quality of jobs impugned by RECORD # of multiple job holders while Full Time Emp dropped 1.5m!!! yes, MILLION.
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