Down goes the Dow

Maybe yes, maybe no? It all comes down to whether or not you believe markets are divorced from fundamentals forever.

Meanwhile from Russians, but significant market news you rarely get elsewhere:

The number of people working MULTIPLE jobs in the US hit 8.66 million in September, a new record.

This is ~300,000 above the peak seen before the pandemic and ~600,000 above the 2008 peak.

Furthermore, the number of part-time jobs has jumped by ~3 million over the last 3 years to a near-record 28.2 million, full-time employment has declined by 1 million since November 2023.

Multiple jobholders have been rapidly rising over the last few years as Americans are fighting record-high prices.

Millions of Americans are working multiple jobs to afford basic necessities.

—Kobeissi Letter

Longest running active thread on Letsrun? Eleven plus years

data crime.

Multiple job holders/total workers not much different than pre-pandemic.

fred.stlouisfed.org

Multiple Jobholders as a Percent of Employed

Multiple Jobholders as a Percent of Employed

Open link

and part two of course is that there are many millions more people working now than were working prepandemic.

fred.stlouisfed.org

Employed, Usually Work Full Time

Employed, Usually Work Full Time

Open link

VIX is higher than normal, yes. Maybe people paying up for portfolio insurance in case the Iran situation gets out of hand and/or the US election goes awry?

But the bigger picture is more tranquil...the CNN Greed and Fear Index is solidly in greed...little fear out there.

In other news, 3Q is looking like it was a barnburner, growthwise. Sharp revision up in 3Q as we start the 4Q.

"The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2024 is 3.2 percent on October 8, up from 2.5 percent on October 1"

Something doesn't add up here:

The payroll survey response rate was just 62% in September, the lowest level in at least 14 years.

By comparison, in 2023, the response rate was 68% while the 2010s average was 77%.
This means last month's data was largely incomplete and we should expect material revisions over the next 2 months.

The 254,000 September payroll creation number is likely overestimated given most of the job numbers have been revised downward over the last two years.

This year alone, nonfarm payroll employment has been revised down by 293,000 jobs.

We expect major downward revisions ahead.

—Kobeissi Letter

SP500 is +5.1% since this tweet. Bad call.

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Andreas Steno Larsen
@AndreasSteno
We have had September 100% right so far.
A dash for USD cash is likely in coming weeks as liquidity will dwindle fast.
More

3:43 PM · Sep 8, 2024
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Heh

oboy

this one is for the books.

SP500 is +35% since this tweet.

Got to say, Grantham has skin 2 feet thick to just keep on keeping on, with his garbage record.

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Barchart
@Barchart
The man who has predicted 50 of the last 2 market crashes, Jeremy Grantham, says nobody should invest in the United States
10:46 PM · Oct 8, 2023
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"And, of course, the market does not feel concerned or cautious. It didn't in 1929. It didn't in Japan in ‘89. It didn't in the U.S. before the housing bust of 2007-2008. That's the way the market is. So, dear listener, get used to it. You will not be warned."

—Jeremy Grantham, October 2, 2024

New all time highs today for the S&P 500... My 1yr return is about 44% as of right now. Crazy. Seems a little odd given it seems people are struggling somewhat as a whole? Where is the money coming from? I haven't put much of anything in the market all year, only about 5% of my total fund amount, a far cry from the 22% growth we've seen so far YTD... Half expecting a correction in the next 6 months, but sometimes things just stall awhile too.

I see CG2˅ beat me to it! So October comes through with a new yearly high and A-T-H. 22 days and November will be on the clock. CPI report tomorrow, Friday the 13th comes on a Sunday this month!

The NASDAQ 15 years ago was at 1,400. Now it is above 18,000. Was Grantham predicting a number of market crashes during that time?

Yet the "legendary" investor has been calling for a crash for more than a decade, and none has yet come.

people are not struggling as a whole. Why do people think this?

We're in an economic boon, benefiting rich and poor alike. That's why the stock market has risen so much.

Although to be fair, it's become materially harder to find a job over the past few months.

Today’s “inflation print” is slaughtering my 20-yr’s and TLT. I bought at about 4.1%, yield is now 4.441% and rising.

Hmmm glad I didn’t twice as much, as I was thinking of doing. I can afford to wait it out and it’s only a paper loss, and not a lot, but it sucks. It’s my one negative this year.

lol when do I add to the position?