Down goes the Dow

i just watched a YouTube video by this guy from 2 months ago and he was recommending then, when Nvidia was trading at $113, to play defense on Nvidia, fearing what would happen if it broke the $108 trend line (i.e.: massive correction). Interestingly, it did break $108 shortly thereafter, but dipped to only $100, and quickly rebounded to $130, settling in now at $124 at the moment.

He claims that he has handled Nvidia "masterfully", and calls Nvidia a "Lotto" stocck.

I believe we all remember GoI's Gish Gallop after last month's employment report were he pasted Zero Hedge's take that employment was lower than believed and we're headed into or are already in a recession. Well after today's report ZH says employment is stronger and the Fed by cutting 50bps is going to stoke inflation!

From ZH, October 4:

"It turns out that Powell's "emergency" 50bps rate cut was - drumroll - another major policy mistake by the Fed.
Moments ago, the BLS reported that
at a time when prevailing consensus was for jobs to continue their
recent downward slide sparked by the near-record annual jobs revision
and several months of downbeat jobs reports, in September the US
unexpectedly added a whopping 254K jobs, the biggest monthly increase
since March, higher than the average monthly gain of 203,000 over the
prior 12 months. ...

Some context: as UBS notes, the moving six-month average on nonfarm payrolls is 167k. The
estimate is that 150k is about consistent with a return of the economy
to trend growth. Which means that inflation is about to come back with a
vengeance, just as the Fed launches its easing cycle." H/T Climateer Investing

Zero Hedge, where the ignorant, indolent and the incurious go for bias confirmation. The tell last month that ZH is BS was their claim the Household Survey was more accurate than the Establishment Report. The BLS lists the 90% confidence interval for the HS at plus or minus 600,000 and the ER at 160,000!

Gol gish explanation:

Private vs. government jobs: Before adjustments, the private sector actually lost -458,000 jobs in September, but the report still showed an increase in overall employment due to a significant unadjusted jump in GOVERNMENT jobs (918,000), likely linked to the return of educators (teachers).

Gol gish also pointed this out:

Here’s everything you need to know about the so-called great jobs report:
Over the last year, employment for native born American workers fell by 825K
For foreign born workers, it increased by 1.2M.
The story of job growth under Biden/Kamala is taking credit for added back jobs after covid with all the growth going to foreigners.

If you want to look deeper than a gente gish gallop (ggg), here is the evil Russian propaganda:

zerohedge.com

Behind Today's Stunning Jobs Report: A Record Surge In Government Workers

Dig deep enough and you will always find the buried bodies.

Open link

BLS revision versus Zerohedge BS. Which one is really BS or confirmation bias?

Igy, by chance can you pull up similar revisions data for 2016-20? I’m curious whether the nature of these adjustments is materially different under Biden than Trump (I have no idea).

Also, I ran another 5k a few weeks back. Second one this year after a 12 year layoff from racing. Still not reaching the same age-graded levels from my early to mid 40s (83-85% usually), but satisfying to me at ~ 20 minutes, having turned 59 earlier this year.

bls.gov

Nonfarm Payroll Employment: Revisions between over-the-month estimates, 1979-present

Open link

Here is a link to yearly benchmark revisions which they do every Feb Employment release for Jan.

bls.gov

Archived CES Benchmark Articles

Open link

Example:

bls.gov

CES National Benchmark Revisions - Detailed Industry Tables : U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Open link

nice running!

Fun to try to get back to the same age grade level as a previous incarnation of ourselves. It's like knowing what your potential is, which makes it easier to get the confidence to try to get faster.

I'm struggling like a salmon to move up the curve - that is a major challenge in my mid 50s. Last year I bumped up to 84% after swimming in the 82% zone for years. Major personal triumph.

the fun fact about the big downward revision on jobs...is that they aren't revising GDP numbers down along with the jobs numbers.

Which means, by definition, that productivity is on a sharp upward jag. Same product, fewer workers. Which is the only way the US can maintain its huge lifestyle advantage over other nations.

Increasing productivity is probably better than increased employment, although both are good and desirable.

The Goldman Panic Index nailed this recent low.

Market up around 10% from this post in August.

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Ryan Detrick, CMT
@RyanDetrick
The Goldman Panic Index is flashing panic.
Past times were close to fairly major lows fwiw.
Nice find
@HumbleStudent

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7:17 PM · Aug 4, 2024
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304.4K
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Yes. But I heard it was election workers, not teachers.

Whatever. If you want some sort of longitudinal consistency, take the U6 and add back in discouraged workers, and you have the historic unemployment rate.

But "markets" (algos) only react to headline numbers, not to anything more granular, and not to revisions.

INCORRECT!

Private sector jobs increased by 143,000 in September, led by the leisure and hospitality industry, and annual pay was up 4.7%.

Oh, and government jobs? Up 31,000, not 918,000.

I was invited to the Boise State football game Saturday evening. I paid $30.47 for two hot dogs, an 8 ounce can of beer, and a 12 ounce bottle of water. The atmosphere was loud, over the top, with a tinge of bread and circuses. Living for the moment seems a national pastime.

Hey agip! VIX is rising…

And oil above $80…..sniffing Iran bombing….