Down goes the Dow

Happy birthday to the missus.

Sure looks appealing. You live in a special place.

Perfect call a year ago:

The S&P 500 could surge more than 25% over the next 12 months based on a bullish stock market indicator that measures sentiment among Wall Street analysts, according to a Friday note from Bank of America's Savita Subramanian.
Subramanian observed that long-term profit growth expectations among Wall Street analysts are near record low levels, which signals pervasive pessimism. Typically, when there's such a high level of pessimism towards future corporate profits, the stock market delivers spectacular returns.
"Valuation is a powerful long-term forecasting tool, but sentiment has been more predictive of near-term returns, and analysts consensus long-term growth expectations today suggest big gains," Subramanian said. "Forecast long-term growth plummeted from 2022, [and] sits near COVID lows."

a year ago this poster extrapolated the falling value of bonds into the future and saw catastrophe. Instead, bonds have risen a spectacular 10% over the past year and mended a lot of the problems.

CrossBorder Capital
@crossbordercap
The great sucking sound. Watching the collateral base of the global financial system disappear...

8:08 AM · Sep 30, 2023
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106K
Views

3m ago. Nah. Employment continues to grow, albeit at a slower rate. look at that view count. Zerohedge is a big deal.

zerohedge
@zerohedge
The mother of all mass layoffs is coming

12:27 PM · Jun 16, 2024
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3.9M
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Thanks, you too. Enjoyed my time there, three weeks training at Dean Witter. Back when they did it right. Out for an early run with a new training partner. Weather is perfect for run, like in most places this time of year. Take care.

Wasn't Dean Witter in Animal House?

I am ignorant of the reference, Sally.

That may be the first on purpose funny thing you've ever said here. Good job.

Thanks Flagpole!. Igy, It was actually Dean Warmer in Animal House as the Farber College president who scolded the Delta Frat members, including John Belushi, for having GPAs ranging from a high around 0.03 down to 0.00. He told one of the neer-do-wells that "Fat, Drunk and Stupid is no way to go through life."

Ah, dude, SOOOO close.

Dean WORMER

I screwed up on the college as well - it was Faber College. I am not sure I could have made it through Faber College.

fascinating that there is a 3? front war in the middle east, with jets pounding cities every day and rockets flying and tankers being hit by missiles...and oil is doing zilch. . Plus Russia might have to escalate.
But fear levels in the market are low.

it's a new and different world. I think Saudi wants Israel to crush all the Iranian militias like hamas and hezbollah, to teach Iran a lesson. Otherwise Saudi would be out calling for Israeli blood.

anyway, what a massively stable world economy we have. Such a great thing.

Aside from the financial angle, the Lebanon situation has me very concerned. This alarming escalation may be a breaking point. I just read how the US has sent in some additional ships as backup, just in case.

OK. The history of Dean Witter was a west coast investment firm born out of the stock market crash of 1929. Later was a unit of Sears, along with Allstate, bringing the brokerage business to Main Street. Dean Witter and Morgan Stanley merged while I was at broker training in February of 1997. The merger was between a wholesale and retail arms of the business.

Implausible? I think we're there, mate. 44 years, two soft landings.

Tracy Shuchart
@chigrl
43 years....one soft landing
"That soft landing came while globalization was taking hold as the Clinton administration feasted on the “peace dividend” from the end of the Cold War and moved the federal budget into surplus. None of those things apply now, so a soft landing looks implausible."
via
@johnauthers
for BBG

11:48 AM · Nov 16, 2023
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204.9K
Views

Rare forecast with a date and a specific trade.

Long VGLT: +13%

Short VTI: -34%

Going to call pair trade a massive loser.

Bob Elliott
@BobEUnlimited
Most of the easy money is gone in the bond market at this point. The asset that is now so clearly overvalued is stocks.
50%+ outperformance of stocks vs long bonds in last 3 years is not sustainable. Closing that gap will be extremely painful to most investors.

Long Vglt, short vti

Bob Elliott
@BobEUnlimited
·
Sep 28, 2023

Last September was the best possible time in recent memory to buy bonds, IMO.

I think that is generally correct on a domestic yield basis. EM bonds continue to climb on falling dollar and upside down U.S. balance sheet.

Also, falling future leverage borrowing costs helping EM Bond CEFs, all including the above I highlighted years ago:

morningstar.com

Western Asset Emerg Mkts Debt (EMD) Performance | Morningstar

Learn more about how the Western Asset Emerg Mkts Debt (EMD : xnys) fund has performed including current and yearly trailing returns and dividend history.

Open link