Down goes the Dow

Just a little check on things.

1) Yes, after yesterday's big up day, Flagpole has more value in Flagpole's portfolio than ever before. Thanks, Joe Biden!

2) Dow YTD is UP 10.12%

3) Flagpole YTD is UP 15.65%

“Americans are officially out of savings:

US net savings as a % of GDP by households, businesses, and the government have been negative for 6 consecutive quarters.

In other words, Americans are producing much less than they consume.

Since 1947, there were only two other times when savings were negative, in 2008 and 2020.

This comes after the US government's deficit hit $2.1 trillion over the last 12 months with spending reaching $6.9 trillion.

At the same time, the personal savings rate fell to 2.9%, the second lowest since 2008.

National savings are at crisis levels.”

—Kobeissi Letter

13 keys was wrong on the popular vote in 2016 (when Trump won, need you reminding, beating crooked Hilary) and is wrong again now. If you are unable to use common sense, logic, and critical thinking, only blindly following a fringe theory that was dead wrong two elections ago, then I have no more use in speaking with you.

To answer your question, 13 keys was wrong in 2016, as a vast majority of polls have been over at minimum the past two election cycles. Trump is outperforming his 2016 and 2020 polls, especially in key swing states. Trump lost by ~40K votes in total (between swing states) in 2020 and is trending significantly better than that now.

Again, if all you look at is 13 keys (which, AGAIN, was wrong in 2016), I can see why you are saying what you're saying. Use a bit of common sense here to see that there is more to the picture and you will not look like such an ignorant fool.

It doesn't seem that you are capable of doing that, so I bid you farewell and will see you in 2 months when you're crying back on this same thread :)

And by the way, Biden is now a defeated president in the most humiliating way ever seen in this country- he had such a tiny chance of winning that his own party forced him out as he was on track to lose the election by 200+ electoral votes.

You are correct about the Keys getting it wrong in 2016 (though Lichtman himself said Trump would win...he was right about that, just not right in the way that his keys predict). I never said it was perfect. It IS the most accurate predictor there is, however, going back to 1860, his model has only been wrong twice.

Not sure what you are hanging your hat on. Harris is up even in Fox News' latest poll. She is ahead in the polls in enough swing states to win. She is close enough in NC to make it interesting, she is trending up, the abortion issue is a KILLER for Trump. The UAW is backing Harris. Teamsters aren't backing either. Women and young voters will overwhelmingly vote for Harris. Polling in recent years has greatly under represented Democrats...and again, the best predictor we have, the 13 Keys AND its author, Allan Lichtman, both say she will win. It's no fringe theory. The model picked the winner back to 1860, only missing twice.

There is not more to the picture. We're not in a recession. The stock market is at an all time high, jobs for everyone. Republicans have had it handed to them in every national election since 2016 and in the vast majority of state elections since Roe v. Wade was tabled. Trump is old, and he looks and acts like it. He's also a convicted felon and tried to overturn a fair election. Many Republicans said that was a bridge too far...at least they thought something was too far. Dick Cheney voting for Harris gives diehard traditional Republicans the offramp to do so also.

Harris will win. It's over, and you will do nothing and like it.

Meh. Biden isn't capable of continuing on, and he was correctly convinced to step down. He would have won though.

Earnings Scorecard: For Q3 2024 (with 7 S&P 500 companies reporting actual results), 5 S&P 500 companies have reported a positive EPS surprise and 5 S&P 500 companies has reported a positive revenue surprise.

This is pretty funny. The best iPhone I ever had was the 4 I think. The first one. The battery lasted forever and I could run with it. I used to go through an iPhone every month because I sweat so much running. My current phone cost about $80 and has had cracks in it forever but has worked fine for almost 5 years. Does anyone need a slightly improved camera every year.

Yes, I also have a 4, probably seven years old. I did get a new battery which was $50. I did buy this new iPad I am on, bought on sale at Costco for $199. I dropped my extra iCloud storage after I moved photos to my PC, then added an external hard drive. I immediately deleted a bunch of apps on the new iPad.

I have a couple new running buddies, older than I. Download their data from their Garmin. For me an old fashion monthly portrait calendar is more flexible. Technology, like this site, can be a huge time waster.

This was a year ago. NVDA up around 180% since this article.

Nvidia is a stock bubble and its popping could trigger a broader market crash, investing legend Rob Arnott says
Zahra Tayeb Sep 6, 2023, 6:20 AM EDT

Nvidia stock has formed a bubble, and should it pop, that could trigger a total market crash, the investing legend Rob Arnott says.
He classed the chipmaker company as a "textbook story of a Big Market Delusion" due to its sky-high valuation.
"Would Nvidia's popping bring down the whole market? "It's very possible," Arnott said.

none of this happened.

HZ
@MFHoz
The Atlanta Fed’s sticky inflation metric has climbed to 5% on a 3-month annualized basis, hinting at higher future CPIs. Dreams of rate cuts are over, with the 10-year yield set to soar.
A fierce bond market sell-off is likely as reality hits: no rate cuts, only hikes.

9:35 AM · Mar 13, 2024
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17.7K
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No one is forcing you to stay.

True.

I post far less here than I did previously. Gave up posting on the 50+ masters thread on account of trolls. Occasional bouts on the political threads. I have personally been more productive for it.

sometimes I wonder why I live in the concrete jungle

this looks pretty good.

for one of our resident DGTDers:

https://www.wsj.com/lifestyle/travel/why-boise-might-secretly-be-the-coolest-city-in-the-pacific-northwest-9b341eb3?st=WS7ZQQ&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink

On indoor furniture, I like the protection and durability of multiple coats of varnish (high gloss) thinned to a highly flowable consistency by adding 50% thinners, sand between coats, and apply the final coat as matt or satin varnish. The result is as smooth as glass.

I tend not to like high gloss finishes and will steer away from waxing for that reason.

On more utilitarian things like kitchenware, instead I use 2:1 shellac to alcohol mix that I make from shellac flakes, wiped on with many coats. And for the pieces that I want a more natural look (less of an applied finish and more like a penertrating oil), I use either Boos Butcher Block Oil or a boiler linseed oil finish I mix up from scratch.

The nature of the finish used on a piece effects how it is regarded and how it works, and very much so.

But in answer to your question, I haven't built up wax finish in layers and don't really use wax much at all.

I do have a bunch of chairs in the Stickley Craftsman style. Some of these I did the ammonia fuming on to get the richer color, some are stained, and all are finished with mutiple coats of the thinned varnish as described above.

Nope

zerohedge
@zerohedge
Hiring is now the lowest since - drumroll - January 2018 (excluding the record one month drop in April 2020). The job market is done, payrolls will be in freefall in 2-3 months.
10:26 AM · May 1, 2024
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483.4K
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Good information, Seattle. I finished my project, settled on seven coats, several more than the last time I did it.