Down goes the Dow

Actually, looking out my window there are two warped boards, one on each side. :-) It was not easy finding redwood in South Texas in 1986. Perhaps any year.

We refinished our wood floors in the current house shortly after we moved in. A contractor damaged some board while working on another project. Naturally in the center of the floor where matching would be most difficult. For similar reason, and since only noticeable on inspection, we left it. I will revisit next time we refinish.

“Nice! I love keeping things working.”

A good friend laments people not taking care of things they worked hard to buy. The other issue, any replacement may be of lesser quality, or not repairable. Case in point my 20+ year Craftsrman Lawnmower with a Briggs and Stratton engine. It was getting hard to start, feared the worst, but found I just needed a new primer rubber bulb. A dollar part with a dollar or two of shipping. You can buy most of the parts online, and fortunately kept the Sears manual which includes the part list.

I get the predictions from my twitter feed - a bunch of financial/investment accounts.

why do I do it? Mostly to help quiet my internal worries when I read a particularly fearful prediction of doom. Having done this prediction check for years has shown me that they have been wrong for years and years. So I can sail by the latest cassandra-esque predictions of doom.

Makes me feel smart for ignoring the predictions of doom and just carrying on.

I also think it's just fascinating to see how a prediction does over time.

And it gives me something to do in the morning. I like a routine with a little fun attached to it.

I've thought about making it into my own twitter feed but that takes a lot of time and probably no one would ever see it.

Today, John Devaney on CNBC:

“There are tens of billions of defaulted or soon to default Class A and B office loans in Democrat run city's in the US such as San Fran, Philly, Chicago, Denver, St. Louis and parts of NYC.

This is as bad as the financial crisis in those cities.

I know, as I'm a leading market maker in Commercial Mortgage Backed Securities (CMBS).

The media is not reporting on this issue and most Americans do not know how serious this issue is.”

From the dark alleys of the internet:

"If Trump wins, we do have an opportunity to do kind of a once in a lifetime deregulation & reduction in the size of the government. America is going bankrupt extremely quickly. The interest payments on the national debt just exceeded the defense budget." 一 @elonmusk

As late as february this guy was saying we'd get another big bout of inflation.
not happening.
inflation is over.

Game of Trades
@GameofTrades_
Inflation is following the EXACT blueprint of the 1970s
Analysts are wrong about what’s coming next
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Feb 28, 2024

yeah this similar post was from a year ago.

the market is taking these losses in stride.

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Jack Farley
@JackFarley96
I have it on good authority that 84% of office CMBS were not paid off in August
16% pay-off rate, 84% were either modified/extended or entered maturity default
Hosted a commercial real estate panel w/ the heaviest of hitters for
@ForwardGuidance
... it will shock you

6:57 PM · Sep 2, 2023
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https://x.com/JackFarley96/status/1698107786138415563

As I posted the previous week, in the largely bedroom community of Eagle, Idaho, there appears to be significant unoccupied or lightly occupied office buildings.

Prior to Covid, there was a push for Boise Downtown residential condo construction, and several large office projects. Some of that construction continues to this date, however some previous scheduled large scale projects have recently been pulled. I suspect like most of the former, and in other cities was driven more by thirst for yield via REITs, rather than demand for the actual space. In my view, the evils of artificially low interest rates exposed.

SP500 +42% higher now than when Grantham called it an ending super bubble in 2022.

classic grantham.

gmo.com

Entering the Superbubble???s Final Act

So far this summer???s bear market rally perfectly fits the pattern of the three superbubble precedents.

Open link

This poster worried that the amount of maturing treasuries would cause rates to rise.

maybe that has been the case, but the 10 year yield is 70 bps lower now than when this tweet was sent out. There is a gargantuan amount of demand for US treasuries. And remember the fed has not been buying them - this is the market voicing a lot of support for treasuries.

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Danielle DiMartino Booth
@DiMartinoBooth
Redefining understatement “One source of upward pressure on US rates is the $7.6trn in US government bonds (31% of outstanding) that will mature over the coming 12 months.”

7:54 AM · Sep 6, 2023
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another 6 months down the road and still no recession, still steady growth.

classic rosenberg.

David Rosenberg
@EconguyRosie
The unemployment rate, having now risen 0.5 ppt from the cycle low, has just met the threshold for a recession. The soft-landing crowd is going to be in for a big surprise.
11:16 AM · Mar 8, 2024
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My bet against the NASDAQ was doing well yesterdat until the market had the greatest mid day rally in a long time (ever?) and I took a beating.

A wave just before it crashes?

Boston was building like crazy during Covid as all the office buildings were empty. Still lots of empty offices

Outside of 2000-2002 the NASDAQ always bounces back with a vengeance the year following a really bad year.

And boy was that beating a dozy, taking 16 years to get back to even.

Just picking a random time to report how Ol' Flagpole is doing against the Dow YTD (I do not yet know...looking now...):

Dow YTD: UP 8.42%

Flagpole YTD: UP 12.16%

Hope your year is going well.

Nice going, FP, and doing well here as well.

I see the other indices are having a stellar year.

Looking forward to Agip's ytd performance re-cap of the major indices, sectors, and select equities and bonds, etc.

No complaints.

Got into St John's late Tues nite. Find out Air Canada pilots might go on strike the 18th. We don't go back till the 24th so we're keeping our fingers crossed. There's an Austin vibe here, only 25 to 35 degrees cooler. Also reminds me of SF, very hilly. Seems to be a good replacement to Cape Cod for our annual beat the heat tour.