SP500 was never lower than when this was tweeted two years ago, and is now 50% higher.
Cheddar Flow @CheddarFlow Michael Burry has suggested the $SPX could plummet by 53% to below 1,900 points over the next few years, based on the benchmark index's bottom tick during previous crashes - Business Insider 5:00 PM · Sep 4, 2022
I don't have time right now, but suffice it to say that at the end of the day, I'm in the same boat as you. Economies grind on, and US companies are exposed to the vagaries of not only the US markets, but also overseas markets, and demographic shifts. I worry about such things, and don't have faith that markets will keep grinding higher. There are alternatives, and there must be found a way to keep injecting money into the system.
These things are not rational. I heard the other day that the best-performing asset over the past 10 years, or maybe 20 I can't remember, is gold--yet still nobody likes it. I admit that I have a position, but that it is small, and always has been. I like it, and even I don't pursue it more strongly.
I still try to beat the markets with my overall portfolio, and have been lucky enough to do so (the important thing is LUCKY with the particular assets that I own). Those years my equities have beaten the S&P have mostly been years where the S&P has performed poorly, but this could be one of the few years where I beat it after it has done well.
Point being that I believe that sentiment drives flows which drive markets. Even though I try to invest (gamble) accordingly, I still make seemingly weird plays, like while knowing that China and others are dumping US debt, I still have a bunch of it. My personal sentiments are only sometimes aligned with the aggregate.
What I have learned is to buy low, and not sell low. THIS is the critical element that people miss. For a few years I momentum traded, which went very well but required a lot of work, in hindsight not enough to justify the alpha. Buying something that has been beaten up is tough for most to do, therefore they DCA into things like VOO. It is STILL tough for me to do, but I suck it up and do it because I know that it will be good for me, yet I still feel that it's bad.
I was well up yesterday, and am again today, so far, with my tobacco portfolio. Everyone said to stay away, because governments were killing it, and because they carry "too much debt". Many of the majors--BTI, MO, PM, etc. Doing great. I have also learned to not be wedded to anything other than my wife. I would dump them in a second. Sentiment would dictate that I sell.
Maybe I should buy some miners! lol I am not that much of a contrarian.
In a year that was projected by many to be "nothing", to be "tough going", I have so far had the 3rd best equity gains ever in my portfolio, but the year is far from over. Thankfully I am stabilized out a ways, so the biggest thing I worry about now is taxes going forward.
nice set of rules here...I'd go along with almost all of them.
Jake @EconomPic My investment truisms 1) do not buy an active mutual fund in a taxable account 2) do not buy a home or condo with an HOA 3) do not own high yield strategically (i.e. as a long-term investment) 4) do not take duration risk when the nominal pre-tax yield is < 1% 5) do not buy a home or condo with plans to move < 7 years unless you are a professional flipper 6) do not buy or sell based on anything you see on Twitter (except if from @svrnco ) 7) divide @CathieDWood forecasts for returns, nominal growth, or price targets by ~10x to be somewhat reasonable 8) do not listen to financial advice or economic forecasts from biology professors 9) do not pay down your mortgage early if you have a sub 3% rate, no matter how good you think it will make you feel 10) be cautiously optimistic about the future... bears can make money short-term, but will always be worse off long-term (unless selling a newsletter) 11) do not use the CAPE to show that stocks are expensive 12:25 PM · Sep 5, 2024 · 4,060 Views
perfect call from GS a year ago. Dead on perfect. Note that the consensus view a year ago was that we'd have a recession by now.
For the third time in as many months, Goldman Sachs has cut the probability that the US economy will enter a recession in the next year. In a note titled "Soft landing summer" released Monday, Goldman Sachs chief economist Jan Hatzius said there was a 15% chance of a recession in the next 12 months, down from an earlier forecast of 20%. "The continued positive inflation and labor market news has led us to cut our estimated 12-month US recession probability," Hatzius wrote. Goldman Sachs notes its forecast is significantly below Bloomberg's consensus forecast for a 60% chance of a recession in the next 12 months. After a summer of stronger-than-expected economic data, Hatzius and Goldman Sachs still see the US economy growing at a 2% annual pace on average through the end of 2024.
Wynne Godley (26 September 1926 – 13 May 2010) was an economist famous for his pessimism about the British economy and his criticism of the British government. In 2007, he and Marc Lavoie wrote a book about the "Stock-Flow Co...
Interesting art history trivia; Godley was married to Kitty Garman, daughter of sculptor Jacob Epstein and former wife of the painter Lucian Freud (Sigmund's grandson).
Largest single non bond holding by far is QID -- a bet against the NADAQ (2 times!).
Up 4.59% today so far.
Putting me solidly in the black for the day despite losing on most other bets.
Up 4.91% now. Luckily as I have some stocks and funds taking an absolute beating.
Don't know too much about investments like QID but it was about 600 4 years ago and it is now 43. Didn't the people who had that lose their shirts? Isn't it down like 93% now?
Up 4.91% now. Luckily as I have some stocks and funds taking an absolute beating.
Don't know too much about investments like QID but it was about 600 4 years ago and it is now 43. Didn't the people who had that lose their shirts? Isn't it down like 93% now?
You need to admit you were wrong that NVDA would hit $200 by year end.
Good for you guys with your tecs and soxs. I don’t play the short side, and am fortunate enough to have only 2 tecl shares remaining, just to keep it popping up on my screen.
My 20-yr’s are doing well again, and my equities just seem to be rising no matter what. A few days ago I increased my 20-yr exposure significantly, and I’m wishing I had done more. But it’s all good, so far.
"We're not going back to this world of very reliably low inflation and low interest rates. Therefore, with higher inflation and higher interest rates, things are going to be more volatile."
Good for you guys with your tecs and soxs. I don’t play the short side, and am fortunate enough to have only 2 tecl shares remaining, just to keep it popping up on my screen.
My 20-yr’s are doing well again, and my equities just seem to be rising no matter what. A few days ago I increased my 20-yr exposure significantly, and I’m wishing I had done more. But it’s all good, so far.
I believe the Biden Administration has been manipulating BLS statistics for political purposes, and any job gains are people doing multiple low paying jobs to keep up. Furthermore, most of the jobs going to illegal immigrants. Like inflation statistics, making chicken salad out of chicken crap.
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