by my quick glance, every September since 2020 has been rough.
Will be interesting to see if that pattern happens again.
I wonder how the AI trading programs take that into consideration. I'm sure it's a factor but only one of many.
Over the last 100 years September has been the worst month for the market. But November and December have been historically strong so you have that to forward to.
Courtesy of Yahoo Finance:
"But new all-time highs tend to cluster together. Once the market reaches a new high, it often keeps going up for some time. In 1995, for example, the S&P 500 closed at a record high 77 times, which comes out to approximately 30% of all trading days in that year. The S&P 500 has closed at a new all-time high 38 times so far in 2024 since setting a new high on Jan. 19.
While the S&P 500 has already moved more than 16% higher since hitting its first new all-time high in over a year in January, the long-term returns could be even greater. The average bull market lasts 46 months with a median total return of 110%. We're only 22 months out from the lows of October 2022 and up 62%. If it holds to the average, this bull market could have another 2 years to go, rising an additional 30% from here.
In fact, investing when the S&P 500 hits a new all-time high has historically led to stronger results than investing on days when it doesn't hit a new all-time high. Since 1970, in the 12 months following a new all-time high, the S&P 500 has produced an average return of 9.4%. In the following 24 months, it returned 20.2% on average. That includes investing at the very peak of the market before a new bear market. By comparison, investing at any other time resulted in average returns of 9% and 18.5% for 12-month and 24-month periods, respectively."
Hi Sally--yes, fondue is still a thing in its birthplace. Amazing stuff, but to get the "right" cheeses you have to be in a small geographic area where they are available.
And there's a lot of alcohol in it, so much that I get pretty lightheaded afterward. We have it up in the mountains, then pass out beside the chalet for an hour. It's amazing.
You guys are reinforcing my thought of selling my equities today, and re-buying them later, on a dip. In the aggregate they're up about 20% this year, so I could take the money and run, which I might do. What a year, they're on a tear. Has to end sometime, and I have been thinking about September...
Tough call, but I think I'll stay. I could see them falling maybe 5% over the month, I guess I would be ok with that, while leaving them undisturbed for dividends. Idk, this year doesn't seem to be adding up. Things seem to be chopping, with inflation, employment, etc numbers all over the place and people guessing and re-guessing at Fed action.
I think when it finally happens, the first one will be the expected amount, and it will soothe the unrest. The rest of the possible moves, I have no feeling about. That type of thing would also solidify my gains in my TLT and 20-yr's, which I think I would sell.
OOPS, sorry, I wrote 20% when it is actually 27%. I meant to type 20+%
At this point in the year, that's unreal. Plus dividends they're up over 30%. Wild. Ridiculous.
lol I'd like to hear what Flagpole has to say about that. They're all tobacco, except for a small holding in a sugar company. Of course my overall returns are muted from my 5.3% short-term t-bill exposure.
Dude, you are SOOOOO wrong. I GUARANTEE you that I have made more money in the stock market than you have...absolutely for sure, and if I were to guess how much more, I would say it is at least 10 times more...well, to be fair, my value is at least 10 times more (and based on the way you fret over the market all the time, it's probably MUCH more than that)...I for sure invested more money than you too since you're such a permabear. You chase tops and bottoms and make declarations about the market here that almost NEVER come true. Your problem is that you THINK you know stuff. You don't know sh!t.
Agip, if you don’t mind, bookmark this one year.
:-)
DGTD Bet Resolution!
Flagpole and Igy.
I can't actually tell what the bet was, but Igy asked me to bookmark it a year ago.
Since the market is up 27% over that year...I'm going to guess that Flagpole won this one.
Page 3140 if someone wants to do the forensics on it.
Interesting ideas here. Even second tier beatles songs can be remarkable and can change the world. Wild putting a Harrison song first on the album and having it be topical. Brave and must have shocked the fans way back when. I've always thought the Beatles weren't all that trad lefty in the end....despite their radical newness....they weren't much for protest. Except this song and a couple times. An inherent conservatism in their themes.
"Taxman" was influential in the development of British psychedelia and mod-style pop, and has been recognised as a precursor to punk rock. The Jam borrowed heavily from the song for their 1980 hit single "Start!" When performing "Taxman" on tour in the early 1990s, Harrison adapted the lyrics to reference contemporaneous leaders, citing its enduring quality beyond the 1960s. The song's impact has extended to the tax industry and into political discourse on taxation. Background and inspiration George Harrison wrote "Taxman" at a time when the Beatles discovered they were in a financially precarious position. In April 1966, a report from the London accountancy firm Bryce, Hammer, Isherwood & Co. advised them that despite the group's immense success, "Two of you are close to being bankrupt, and the other two could soon be."[4] In his 1980 autobiography, I, Me, Mine, Harrison says: "'Taxman' was when I first realised that even though we had started earning money, we were actually giving most of it away in taxes; it was and still is typical."[5] As their earnings placed them in the top tax bracket in the United Kingdom, the Beatles were liable to a 95% supertax introduced by Harold Wilson's Labour government; hence the lyric "There's one for you, nineteen for me".[6][7]
I can't actually tell what the bet was, but Igy asked me to bookmark it a year ago.
Since the market is up 27% over that year...I'm going to guess that Flagpole won this one.
Page 3140 if someone wants to do the forensics on it.
Thanks agip.
I concede to Flagpole’s wisdom. My largest equity position is my EM Bond CEFs, and yes they are considered stock. I am up ~30% on these positions, and since converting to income in 2024 delivering 14.34% in dividends. These positions are large enough that a reasonable person would not view as “perma-bearish.” I see myself as a deep value guy.
My view remains the domestic equity market is extremely overvalued, supported by Government transfer payments to individuals, corporations, and Green Energy projects. I still expect a 60-70% stock market haircut before I will consider the United States equity markets reasonable for investment.
This post was edited 7 minutes after it was posted.
this one didnt' work out. But the fundstrat guy has had some great bullish calls recently.
IWM was down 1% over the last month.
Heisenberg @Mr_Derivatives Tom Lee says 15%+ on $IWM just for the month of August alone. You heard the man. Buy small caps. Buy it hard. 2:41 PM · Jul 25, 2024 · 167.8K Views
bad call from goldman...so far. SP500 +2% over last 30 days
Seth Golden @SethCL Goldman Sachs "Since 1928, July 17th has marked THE local top for the month heading into materially lower August. We are modeling a late summer equity market CORRECTION" August is worst month of the year for equity flows, as capital already deployed.
I can't actually tell what the bet was, but Igy asked me to bookmark it a year ago.
Since the market is up 27% over that year...I'm going to guess that Flagpole won this one.
Page 3140 if someone wants to do the forensics on it.
OF COURSE I won...Igy is a permabear and CONSTANTLY says the world is going to sh!t, that the market is overvalued, blah, blah blah, and I, on the other hand, say you should just invest, invest, invest no matter what. He doesn't know if things are overvalued. I do not know. NO ONE KNOWS. You just have to invest as much as you can while working and NEVER stop investing until you retire (and your spouse retires) or until you have decided you have enough money and just don't care to make any more.
I can't actually tell what the bet was, but Igy asked me to bookmark it a year ago.
Since the market is up 27% over that year...I'm going to guess that Flagpole won this one.
Page 3140 if someone wants to do the forensics on it.
Thanks agip.
I concede to Flagpole’s wisdom. My largest equity position is my EM Bond CEFs, and yes they are considered stock. I am up ~30% on these positions, and since converting to income in 2024 delivering 14.34% in dividends. These positions are large enough that a reasonable person would not view as “perma-bearish.” I see myself as a deep value guy.
My view remains the domestic equity market is extremely overvalued, supported by Government transfer payments to individuals, corporations, and Green Energy projects. I still expect a 60-70% stock market haircut before I will consider the United States equity markets reasonable for investment.
Ha! I made my previous comment to agip before reading this comment of yours...and here you are saying that at least part of the market is "overvalued." Bogus. You have no idea whether it is or isn't. You want the market to go down up to 70% before you would consider investing? Dude, is that what you're saying there? I'm flabbergasted.
I can't actually tell what the bet was, but Igy asked me to bookmark it a year ago.
Since the market is up 27% over that year...I'm going to guess that Flagpole won this one.
Page 3140 if someone wants to do the forensics on it.
OF COURSE I won...Igy is a permabear and CONSTANTLY says the world is going to sh!t, that the market is overvalued, blah, blah blah, and I, on the other hand, say you should just invest, invest, invest no matter what. He doesn't know if things are overvalued. I do not know. NO ONE KNOWS. You just have to invest as much as you can while working and NEVER stop investing until you retire (and your spouse retires) or until you have decided you have enough money and just don't care to make any more.
NO ONE KNOWS, except Flagpole. On every topic, of course. :-)
And, my perma-bear position in SOXS I bought Friday is up 18.84% as I type. What is that annualized?
This post was edited 3 minutes after it was posted.
Aggregate markets have been rising because of the new money being poured into a finite basket of securities, and much of that was due to regular and automatic IRA and 401k, etc contributions.
This is why the gov is trying to get anybody and everybody into the US, and into the system--because as boomers age out and pivot to fixed income, the flows into equities will decrease unless foreign buyers are found or the gov just buys itself (which is complicated).
I don't think it will work well. It will have an effect, but the boomers are a big deal. Not only will they pivot from equities, but they will also draw down absolute investitures. lol the new advice everyone seems to be giving: no need to reduce your equity exposure as you age, that is your grandpa's way of doing things and is outmoded! Stay 90-10!
My equities are up again today, it's crazy. Tempting to put on some stop losses (which I basically never do). And my 20-yr's are back in the right direction.
Interesting ideas here. Even second tier beatles songs can be remarkable and can change the world. Wild putting a Harrison song first on the album and having it be topical. Brave and must have shocked the fans way back when. I've always thought the Beatles weren't all that trad lefty in the end....despite their radical newness....they weren't much for protest. Except this song and a couple times. An inherent conservatism in their themes.
"Taxman" was influential in the development of British psychedelia and mod-style pop, and has been recognised as a precursor to punk rock. The Jam borrowed heavily from the song for their 1980 hit single "Start!" When performing "Taxman" on tour in the early 1990s, Harrison adapted the lyrics to reference contemporaneous leaders, citing its enduring quality beyond the 1960s. The song's impact has extended to the tax industry and into political discourse on taxation. Background and inspiration George Harrison wrote "Taxman" at a time when the Beatles discovered they were in a financially precarious position. In April 1966, a report from the London accountancy firm Bryce, Hammer, Isherwood & Co. advised them that despite the group's immense success, "Two of you are close to being bankrupt, and the other two could soon be."[4] In his 1980 autobiography, I, Me, Mine, Harrison says: "'Taxman' was when I first realised that even though we had started earning money, we were actually giving most of it away in taxes; it was and still is typical."[5] As their earnings placed them in the top tax bracket in the United Kingdom, the Beatles were liable to a 95% supertax introduced by Harold Wilson's Labour government; hence the lyric "There's one for you, nineteen for me".[6][7]
Disclaimer: OFF TOPIC
Fun to remember this period, and what a period it was (not to overlook the great music that still endures).
The amazing thing is the transformation that the Beatles underwent. I mean, they were quintessential children of the sixties, and they both reflected those views and values, and helped change them (in no small part).
With that in mind, it is fascinating to see them develop into the cultruarl phenoms they became, where they evolve into left wing idelogies, eastern philosophies, pychadelic experimentation, and outright revolt. And they were brilliant at this. To such an extent, that there has arguably never been an equal.
A $1 Million portfolio, invested 25 years ago entirely in domestic U.S. stocks, with annual distributions of $50,000, would only be worth $300,000 today.
A $1 Million portfolio, invested 25 years ago entirely in a 30 Year U.S. Treasury Bond, with annual distributions of $50,000, would be worth $1,200,000 today.
Aggregate markets have been rising because of the new money being poured into a finite basket of securities, and much of that was due to regular and automatic IRA and 401k, etc contributions.
This is why the gov is trying to get anybody and everybody into the US, and into the system--because as boomers age out and pivot to fixed income, the flows into equities will decrease unless foreign buyers are found or the gov just buys itself (which is complicated).
I don't think it will work well. It will have an effect, but the boomers are a big deal. Not only will they pivot from equities, but they will also draw down absolute investitures. lol the new advice everyone seems to be giving: no need to reduce your equity exposure as you age, that is your grandpa's way of doing things and is outmoded! Stay 90-10!
My equities are up again today, it's crazy. Tempting to put on some stop losses (which I basically never do). And my 20-yr's are back in the right direction.
Makes me nervous.
maser do you not acknowledge that the US and global economies have grown over the decades as have profits from global public corporations?
That growth is why markets have risen over time: companies have continuously found ways to make ever more money. Which has made their stock worth more and more and more.
Not your theory of constricted stock demand.
This post was edited 1 minute after it was posted.