Down goes the Dow

Seattle,

Thanks. Hopefully there will be no immediate reason to sell, and we bought at a low point, fortunately. A residential real estate downturn would help our daughter and her husband who are looking. Eagle is more a residential community, and the three commercial buildings are good size for the town. There are several Boise businesses the could relocate to perhaps a more desirable location. I assume the two businesses in question have deep pockets and no skin off their nose.

Igy

My recollection of Fed rate cuts:

https://x.com/chartingprodigy/status/1827471749274804733?s=61

Solid call to buy commercial real estate in march 2024.

up around 13% since then, although it did fall a good amount afterwards before the surge.

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Barchart
@Barchart
Real Estate has bottomed and now is the time to buy says Blackstone

8:58 PM · Mar 14, 2024
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It was 11 years ago today

Some to-be friends got together to kibitz

they've been doing it ever since

And they're guaranteed to outperform (except Agip)

So may I celebrate with you

the thread you've known for all these years

Let's Run Down Goes the Dow today hits 11!

oh man when I said Larry Summers was the worst economist I forgot about D Rosenberg. So bad at this it hurts.

The Fed's job is done, we have no recession and very little inflation. But ol'Dave will keep prognosticating.

David Rosenberg
@EconguyRosie
Powell definitely sounded more like Volcker today than he did Greenspan. Last line said it all: “We will keep at it until the job is done”. By the time the job is done, the economy will be knee-deep in recession.
11:49 AM · Aug 25, 2023
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Happy 11th!

Although I don’t post much anymore, I’m still around and enjoy reading the thread.

Doing well this year, and have rotated into some 20-yr treasuries and a bit of TLT. My risk-adjusted return is great, so far. Tobacco has been doing well, and my TECL plays have panned out.

Good year. Minimal work, am enjoying the good life for a bit. Swim workout this afternoon with the mrs, then to a friend’s for fondue. Savoyarde fondue!

Rosenberg, lol. A while back I watched an “interview” where he and Gundlach were stroking each other.

More of the same stuff. As somebody once said about pretty much everything,

“Lather, rinse, repeat.”

Interestingly enough, this was probably his last rational post on LR.C!

I didn't even know people still ate fondue. Growing up we had a bunch of fondue pots. But it has been a real longggggg time since I had any.

Maserati,

Glad you are well. I am opportunistically positioned in SOXS and TECS, with my largest positions the EM CEFs. Also betting interest rates fall, plus I hope the dollar gets weaker.

I was out earlier on a run with a couple of recent transplants from California. Skeptical at first, but they do the Galloway thing of running 1:15 and walking 0:15. I am the youngest at 73, the other two 76 and 80. Seems to work well, gives the legs a chance to loosen up, and does not significantly affect your overall time.

My parents would entertain quite a bit. I recall them hosting a couple of fondue parties in the 1960s.

Take care.

Igy

SMCI - Ouch. And I just bought more last week. Will this be another Enron?

Bummer.

I've got a position in Berkshire Hathaway and was surprised to hear the news today:
The gain in Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B 462.42, +1.79, +0.4%), which topped a $1 trillion value in terms of market capitalization today, has also contributed to the performance of the financial sector.

That one has been doing well for the last year.

No Steph, no

steph pomboy
@spomboy
Gotta say, as I sit here trying to compile charts for my weekly, it's an embarrassment of grim riches. Every series I look at is hitting extremes in ugliness. Can't remember this kinda deluge of bad data in a very LOOOONG time. The recession is here, my friends.
1:36 PM · May 18, 2024
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this has to be a positive.

who would have thought NVDA would be down 2% after earnings but tech stocks in general would rocket up 1% without it?

exactly! Thinking the same thing.

Interesting story, actually. Nvidia has stellar results but less growth than previous knockout quarters, so market punishes stock after hours, but not too much (considering their recent enormous run-ups).

Overnight futures did point to a tech sell-off, but that did not materialize. In fact, the rest of the Mag 7 are going up strongly. Almost like a rotation within the group.

Maybe the take away is that there is still evidence of solid growth in the sector and in AI, but expectations of collusal outperformance as a given were somewhat unrealistic, or at least overblown.

by my quick glance, every September since 2020 has been rough.

Will be interesting to see if that pattern happens again.

I wonder how the AI trading programs take that into consideration. I'm sure it's a factor but only one of many.

oops

Over the last 100 years September has been the worst month for the market. But November and December have been historically strong so you have that to forward to.