I think Modern Monetary Theory can now be dismissed as nonsense. It remains to be seen if traditional stock valuation measures will become a thing again.
I think Modern Monetary Theory can now be dismissed as nonsense. It remains to be seen if traditional stock valuation measures will become a thing again.
Igy were you saying that back when Covid was rocking? The Dow had an annualized return of 12% during the Trump presidency. The Nasdaq much higher. When do you just throw in the towel and admit you were wrong?
I think Modern Monetary Theory can now be dismissed as nonsense. It remains to be seen if traditional stock valuation measures will become a thing again.
Igy were you saying that back when Covid was rocking? The Dow had an annualized return of 12% during the Trump presidency. The Nasdaq much higher. When do you just throw in the towel and admit you were wrong?
What happened to your prediction that NVDA would reach $200 by year end, other than a 30% drop from the high?
Meanwhile in regards to Covid and your cavalier market view:
“What "fixed it" in 2020 was trillions of fiscal spending. What "fixed it" in 2009 was a change in FAS 157 that allowed banks to mark bad debt to model rather than market. What "fixed it" in 2002 was an 83% collapse in the NDX. The Fed eased aggressively the whole way down.” —John Hussman
This post was edited 3 minutes after it was posted.
Post See new posts Conversation Don Johnson @DonMiami3 The recession model developed by Harvard PhD Arturo Estrella has the odds of a recession in the next 12 months (between July of 2023 and July of 2024) at 99.82%. I know your push-up bra TikTok economists and IG RE course couples are smarter though... Respect the lag.
Here's a good one. Battle of the titans. Buffet vs Ackman. Yes, Buffett won of course. The rate on the 10 year fell, so owning 10 years made you around 5% over the past year.
Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner Only one can be right. Billionaire investor Bill Ackman says he is shorting US Treasuries. if long-term inflation is 3% not 2%, the 30y Treasury yield could rise to 5.5%. In contrast, Warren Buffett has announced buying positions in 10y US Treasuries. Shorting US 10y bonds seems to be one of the most crowded trades at the moment.
After yesterday's big drop, what let's see how Ol' Flagpole is doing against the Dow (I do not know yet...)
Dow YTD: UP 2.69%
Flagpole YTD: UP 5.69%
So, exactly 3% up on the Dow as of today.
are you counting dividends in your citing of the Dow? You get paid dividends in your accounts so you have count those when comparing to the Dow, otherwise you are giving yourself an unfair advantage.
Just use the ETF with the ticker DIA as your proxy and look up its total return on Morningstar. That will count dividends.
After yesterday's rally the Dow is up 4.44% year to date.
Of course the Sp500 is a much better benchmark for you - that one is up 10.6% year to date.
Which just shows again that you have a tech/growthy portfolio and that explains why you have beaten the Dow - it's not as tech/growthy as the SP500.
6 months ago JPM recommended going **beyond** overweight with the mag 7. It was a good bet for a while - tech went up 20% from there. But now we're roughly back to where we were 6 months ago in tech.
After yesterday's big drop, what let's see how Ol' Flagpole is doing against the Dow (I do not know yet...)
Dow YTD: UP 2.69%
Flagpole YTD: UP 5.69%
So, exactly 3% up on the Dow as of today.
are you counting dividends in your citing of the Dow? You get paid dividends in your accounts so you have count those when comparing to the Dow, otherwise you are giving yourself an unfair advantage.
Just use the ETF with the ticker DIA as your proxy and look up its total return on Morningstar. That will count dividends.
After yesterday's rally the Dow is up 4.44% year to date.
Of course the Sp500 is a much better benchmark for you - that one is up 10.6% year to date.
Which just shows again that you have a tech/growthy portfolio and that explains why you have beaten the Dow - it's not as tech/growthy as the SP500.
"Are you counting dividends in your citing of the Dow? You get paid dividends in your accounts so you have count those when comparing to the Dow, otherwise you are giving yourself an unfair advantage."
Agip makes a great point. If Flagpole is just looking at the Dow and not figuring in the dividends, then he is totally and hugely underestimating the Dow performance. Not sure about the Dow but over the last 120 years, of the total S & P's performance, 40% of it has come from dividends.
Also, Flagpole is comparing the rather conservative Dow against his portfolio which is likely to have much more tech stocks. Again, he is comparing apples to oranges.
After yesterday's big drop, what let's see how Ol' Flagpole is doing against the Dow (I do not know yet...)
Dow YTD: UP 2.69%
Flagpole YTD: UP 5.69%
So, exactly 3% up on the Dow as of today.
are you counting dividends in your citing of the Dow? You get paid dividends in your accounts so you have count those when comparing to the Dow, otherwise you are giving yourself an unfair advantage.
Just use the ETF with the ticker DIA as your proxy and look up its total return on Morningstar. That will count dividends.
After yesterday's rally the Dow is up 4.44% year to date.
Of course the Sp500 is a much better benchmark for you - that one is up 10.6% year to date.
Which just shows again that you have a tech/growthy portfolio and that explains why you have beaten the Dow - it's not as tech/growthy as the SP500.
Also, if Flagpole does have a tech/growth portfolio, his good years will almost always be better than the Dow, but his bad years will usually be worse than the Dow. You can't have it both ways. A tech-heavy portfolio is much more volatile than the more conservative Dow.
After yesterday's big drop, what let's see how Ol' Flagpole is doing against the Dow (I do not know yet...)
Dow YTD: UP 2.69%
Flagpole YTD: UP 5.69%
So, exactly 3% up on the Dow as of today.
You are not 3% up on the Dow, more like 105% - but again using your bogus numbers.
This explains everything. Flagpole doesn't really understand numbers and percentages. For him to say he is 3% up on the Dow shows how he can think he has bested the Dow in 37 of 35 years. He is a good guy overall but just not a savvy investor.