agip, your endless posting of bad predictions continues to underscore my underlying theme that we are all idiots when it comes to the markets. If the so-called experts usually get it wrong, what hope do the rest of us common schlubs have? Other than Flagpole, of course (who, incidentally, is no less insufferable as an old man than he was when I first got here around 2000-01; and BTW he used to claim he wasn't the troll posting as coolio and zipperhead, clearly an untruth back then... is such an untruth a lie, or does our hero have another clever explanation for why not?).
Anyhoo, we are listening to the audiobook version of "Fluke" by Brain Klaas which does a pretty good job of exploring the idea that many things are determined by very small random "flukes" and as such are effectively unpredictable, at least in a deterministic sense. My view, which I've reiterated to the point of annoying everyone, is that financial markets are like that, and our past experience is little, if any, guide to the future. Hence, the pundits are usually wrong, and often badly wrong.
The only thing you can really ever say with confidence is that stocks usually go up. That's the main signal, which is often drowned out by a lot of noise on various time scales.