Down goes the Dow

When I posted I said to myself, who posts Forever Young first, agip or seattle, and by which artist.

Oh, gente - so close! So very close. You got the musician right, but at least in my case, it's nothing as grand as you and agip imagine. This, I fear, is more what I had in mind:

Honestly, I saw that and thought, what????? Dylan version is the one I know.

bloody heck I messed up - broke the first rule of avoiding codgerhood: being predictable.

I hope avoiding dylan at least surprised you.

I've only watched a few episodes but they are clever and enjoyable even for adults. There was a time I could name all the pups on Paw Patrol, but they haven't watch that in years.

Yeah, I was expecting Dylan, not Rod the Mod.

Yes...because I went into it with the right attitude. I invest money I don't need today for a day in the future when I will no longer have an income from a job. I've seen ups and downs in the market. I invested all through the Great Recession, and I'm glad I did as that money I invested then has done super well.

the big question is something like: we assume US stocks will always rise, but we assume that because they always have gone up (given a 7-10+ year horizon) But they don't have to always rise. UK stocks just went something like 20 years with zero gains. We know Japan had a decades-long wait for new highs. Could happen here.

Agip had mentioned this recently how Buffet had reduced Berkshire's AAPL holdings intimating he was not so bullish on it. But actually I think it is for tax purposes. His cost basis is around $40 and the stock trading at $190. If Biden wins another term the tax rate on corporate capital gains is likely to go from 21% to much, much higher.

The American stock market is much more resilient than the Japanese one. Every bad year for the American market (outside of 2000-2002) if followed by an even better good year and successive good or great years.

I know those tax ideas are just proposals, trial balloons they have floated, and election speak--but you never know. I caught wind of the possibility years ago, and have worked to have almost zero unpaid CG, only maybe 100k worth on primary residence, which isn't currently taxed.

The proposal that most bothers me is the proposed annual deemed disposal of assets the and resulting CG liability. I MIGHT be fine with something like that, if there was symmetry--i.e. any negative years, the full amount of the loss could be written off, or carried forward ad infinitum. Ridiculous, though.

Made a bit again on an MSTR trade this morning--other than that, steady as she goes...

Well, which narrative do you want to go with? Either he has a lot of debt (maybe he does), or he hs gained millions of dollars illegally? Which one? Could be both, I suppose.

Forbes says his net worth is $10 million...so if he actually has $800K+ debt, it's not that big a deal. I personally don't like debt and so I would get rid of that debt as soon as possible, but he's not in danger of being poor, so I'm sure he's not concerned.

You greatly misunderstand. I'm in no lather. Yes, I am heavily in the market, and at this point, I really don't care how it does. I know for certain that it WILL go up, but how much matters not to me at this point. I don't plan to buy an island or a private jet. Almost anything shy of those things is attainable for me, and even there, I'm only going to spend money on things I want. I would like to have a house with a bowling alley in it. Depending on where we decide to live, I might do that. That's really the only extravagant thing I can think of that I'd like to have, and even that isn't so expensive.

fusionbowling.com

Pricing | Fusion Bowling | Home Bowling Alley Installation Contractor

How much does a home bowling alley cost? We publish average bowling alley prices and bowling lane costs for in-home bowling alley equipment packages.

Open link

Regarding your questions you were going to ask me, it appears you haven't been listening to me at all. I do not care about most of that, and you shouldn't either. Take 15% or more of your income and put it into diversified stock-containing mutual funds. Do all index funds if you want to. It is not an intellectual endeavor. There is no insight or machismo that is needed when investing in the stock market.

Can we lather you up?

Earnings Scorecard: For Q1 2024 (with 93% of S&P 500 companies reporting actual results), 78% of S&P 500 companies have reported a positive EPS surprise and 60% of S&P 500 companies have reported a positive revenue surprise.

this guy points out that it's been a great strategy to load up on tech if the nasdaq goes 6m without a new 52-week high but then makes one. Which it had done a year ago. Worked again; naz up 37% over the last year.

Although it has also been a good time buy the naz under almost any circumstance.

Ryan Detrick, CMT
@RyanDetrick
I found 14 other times the NASDAQ-100 made a new 52-wk high after going at least 6 months without one.
You tell me, but these tend to happen in uptrends I think. Higher a yr later all 14 times.
Note, this just happened yesterday (after nearly 18 months w no new high).

3:21 PM · May 19, 2023
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32.6K
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Another guy who thought a recession was starting 6m ago. This time because of a drop ni durable goods orders.

Fact is he took a noisy data series and thought a one or two-month dip meant something.

wrong!

Keith McCullough
@KeithMcCullough
Entering a US RECESSION
For those of you who didn't get the real-time data update from the Anti-Christ of CNBC...
Headline Durables = DOWN -5.4% M/M (against negatively revised Sept estimates) = RoC CYCLE LOW

8:26 AM · Nov 23, 2023
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171.4K
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fred.stlouisfed.org

Manufacturers' New Orders: Durable Goods

Manufacturers' New Orders: Durable Goods

Open link

A year ago Doug Kass said 'don't buy! Market is too thinly led!'

SP500 +29%ish since his tweet.

Maybe Doug what we've learned from history is that we aren't smarter than the market.

Seabreeze Partners
@SeabreezeLP
This market advance is led by the narrowest group of stocks since the Nifty Fifty era. We all know how that ended, yet what we have learned from history is that we haven't learned from history. Read additional commentary on the Market View tab of https://seabreezepartnerslp.com
@DougKass
11:37 AM · May 17, 2023
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8,330
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Still waiting for that recession.

This tweet was 15 months ago.

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Henrik Zeberg
@HenrikZeberg
Few understands Business Cycles
Economy is NOT in Recession at this point. Clock has started and Recession will 100% come
But not yet!
We are in Q4 2006 - Q1 2007
Stock Market topped in Oct. 2007. Recession began Dec. 2007
Worst Recession since 1929 coming after Blow-Off Top

4:37 AM · Feb 12, 2023
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