way too early 2025 XC CIF HS predictions

Actually you are pretty wrong about that. Don’t expect to be one of the best if you aren’t willing to go take them on. Can’t just sit home and do races below your level to get any better.

Okay good point but it’s a running thread, like I just want to shed light on other meets besides the biggest competitive ones. This is coming from a guy who never had the opportunities to go Woodbridge in hs or other big meets cause they were too far or our coach simply hated us (now it seems like after my class graduated, my school started going to Woodbridge)

Hell our coach was really stingy about where to race and didn’t want to go any further than Sacramento or Angels Camp.

I get it, not the kids’ fault. They can only race what they are taken to. Just pointing out that if you have a top team or individual and you are winning low level meets when everyone else has left town that it’s not that impressive.

Good point too. I still think Thronson beating someone like Alijah Murillo is still impressive considering Murillo is also another top CCS returner who also ran sub 14 on Montgomery park

Herriman’s gonna be at Clovis?

Apparently, yes.

Probably because there won’t be a Bob Firman invite this year. The Bob Firman officials are working on figuring out a location for 2026 though

spencer will probably take fernandez record hes on par with simmons

Matilda Torres’ 5th runner is pretty far back, and even if he was capable of being up there with their #4, they still would have lost to Jesuit, Redondo Union, Mira Costa, and Woodbridge

honestly huge thanks to jesuit and redondo union. If it wasn't for those two teams we would have been completely steamrolled just like last year. They somewhat made us at-least look ok not terrible.

individuals look really bad this year though. I don't think we have a runner that can get top 50 at nxn this year

If Totenson or Kitchen couldn’t do it, Spencer won’t be able to either. At this point, Fernandez’s record is not going down any time soon. I’d be shocked if it goes down in the next 5 years

2025 - Average speed ratings by team at Woodbridge

Herriman - 180.2 - SW
Jesuit - 177.6 - CA
Boulder - 174 - SW
Bridgeland - 173.8 - S
Redondo Union - 173.2 - CA
Austin Vandegrift - 172.8 - S
Mira Costa - 172.2 - CA
Coeur D’Alene - 174.2 - NW
Woodbridge - 173 - CA
Mountain View - 170.8 - CA
San Clemente - 169.8 - CA
La Serna - 168.4 - CA
ML King - 170 - CA
Cresenta Valley - 168.4 - CA
Matilda Torres - 168.7 - CA
Vacaville - 169.4 - CA

Crater - 172 - (seperate Woodbridge race) - NW

California teams are faster this year than last year. This is a really good performance for the teams this year. California coaches are getting better.

Average speed rating for top 5 California teams at Woodbridge last year -

Mira Costa: 170.8 (8th)
Matilda Torres: 169.0 (9th)
Glendora: 169.2 (11th)
Great Oak: 168.4 (12th)
Mountain View: 167.6

What are the chances of California getting an at-large team on the boys side and the girls side this year?

It’s also because a lot of last year’s top CA teams didn’t graduate many guys.

In 2023, all top CA teams were senior heavy, which led to a down year in 2024

Not really, you left out 2 of top 3 Cal teams from last year, ran in earlier races. Last year's team times:

1 Menlo 1:13:14.0
2 Mira Costa 1:13:32.4
3 Oaks Christian 1:13:56.4
4 Matilda Torres 1:13:57.3
5 Glendora 1:13:57.4
6 Martin Luther King 1:14:00.2
7 Great Oak 1:14:10.1

This Year:

1 Jesuit 1:12:33.9
2 Redondo Union 1:13:40.8
3 Woodbridge 1:13:46.4
4 Mira Costa 1:13:56.4
5 Mountain View (Mt View) 1:14:18.3
6 San Clemente 1:14:32.8
7 Martin Luther King 1:14:33.4

Depth wise, last year 16 teams were at 1:50:00 or better, this year only 13.

My thoughts remain the same as before Woodbridge. Jesuit should be better than any team last year, but after that, it will be about the same as last year. But every other region is improving.

TullyRunners did speed rate this year 3 points "harder" this year (15:00 is 168 this year, 165 last year), and 3 points is 9 seconds per runner and therefore 45 seconds per team, and while I always trust those rankings as much as anything else, I do think last year was top heavy, which skewed things a bit. If you move further down the list to avoid outliers and other noise, the times look very similar.
2024
30th Poly (Riverside) 1:15:06.0
2025
30th Poway 1:15:23.2

2024
50th Burroughs (Ridgecrest) 1:16:32.4
2025
50th Oak Park 1:16:23.1 (This year 50th was faster)
It is hard to say for sure, but I respectfully disagree that the course was 45 seconds per team slower this year. Still, I treat those ratings as the standard for XC ratings, and it is the only thing I use. So if I do any updates of my list, I will use those rankings.

How often do the performances at Woodbridge line up well to the eventual performances at Clovis? Aren't the courses/weather different enough that a few point differences in speed ratings at Woodbridge night not mean all that much to results when it matters?