Down goes the Dow

Really, does anybody pay attention to these calls?

If they actually knew anything, they wouldn't be working for someone else.

agip I'm still waiting for VIX 32+ to back up the truck and refill my equities basket. For now, yields up: 6-mo 5.377, 2-yr 4.933, 10-yr 4.652, and 20-yr 4.899

It's becoming tempting to go out on the curve, right now I am all bills except for a small position in 2-yr notes that I got somewhere around 4.7%

My ridiculous residual equities have been doing very well, actually adding to gains, a couple of hundred bucks a day. I'll take it.

hey hey Maser. Welcome back.

I'm virtually all 1-3 years on the curve right now...my biggest position by far is VCSH, which is short term corporate bonds. 5%+ for little risk, as I see it. It's returned 4% over the past year vs zero % for generic bonds, so I've been happy. Done what it's supposed to do. Paid me the coupon.

I don't see much benefit to going out on the curve, other than as a risk hedge. If there's a war or something terrible, I'm sure you'll do better in longer term bonds. But that's a small chance so I'm happy clipping coupons and not worrying about big disasters. But getting higher rates for shorter term bonds? Ok by me.

I read once that insider selling is a useless stat,....but insider buying has some predictive value.

A year ago there was a lot of insider buying and it paid off. Average Sp500 stock up 14% from then.

Liz Ann Sonders
@LizAnnSonders
More than 1,000 officers/directors at more than 600 companies bought their own stock in Mar; highest number on individual and company basis since last May per Washington Service…ratio of insider buying to selling last month swelled to highest level since Sept
⁦

5:34 AM · Apr 25, 2023
·
47.5K
Views

Wild how long the yield curve has been inverted. And it doesn't seem to matter one bit. The world economy is so resilient and able to fund itself through everything. a triumph of humanity.

six months ago the length of the inversion was shocking. And we're still inverted. 1.8 years of inversion.

*Unless it's just because of massive debts on government balance sheets. Then it's just stupid.

Joseph Brown
@heresyfinancial
The yield curve has been signaling a recession for 212 days straight now
This is a record
Historically, the longer it takes for the recession to start after the inversion, the more severe the recession is

bloomberg.com

China Cuts Bank Reserve Requirements to Aid Fiscal Stimulus

China’s central bank cut the amount of cash lenders must hold in reserve for the second time this year, a move that will help banks support government spending and Beijing’s broader effort to stoke economic growth.

Open link

Who could have imagined the idiotic way this country is managed (by both parties) might just implode one day?

yeah but in the long run we're all dead. What do we do until that point?

Today will be an oof day - big losses in stocks and bonds. That double whammy is so harsh on classic portfolio theory.

Rates breaking out to 6-months highs, inflation readings coming on hot again.

Seems to me the stock market fun is probably over until the election clears up and people feel more confident placing bets.

That said, earnings look generally good so far. but earnings are only part of the reason for market moves.

For me, as interest rates rise, dollar strengthens, I will add to my EM bond CEFs using profits from my leveraged short sales. If those metrics reverse and market rises on mega cap and AI, I add back in to my leveraged shorts.

igy what closed end fund/s do you use for EM bonds?

Year to date total return. Not including today, so some performance is overstated

NVDA +61%

BTC +53

META +40 (+29 really)

Weed stonks +21

Retail +17

Energy +16

Amzn +16

Google +14

Gold +12

Comms Sector +12

Financials +9

MSFT +9

SP500 +7

Industrials +7

Value +7

COWZ +7

India +7

Utils +6

Staples sector +6
Healthcare +4

Materials +4

AI Stocks +4

EM Debt MSD +4

Tech +3

Small caps +2

Non-US developed +2

Emerging +2

Global 60/40 +2

Defense +2

ST Tips +1

Junk +1

ST Junk +1

EM Ex china +1

St Corp bonds 0

Cons disc -1

Hussman -1

Inter TIPS -2

Inter Treas -3

CALF -3

China ex-state -4

Corp bonds -4

REITs -8

Apple -12

ARKK -16

Clean energy -25

TSLA -35

Peloton -50

Strange that tech overall is up less than value. Would not have guessed that. Value is actually keeping up with the SP500, which is not the conventional wisdom. Maybe 'tech' just depends how much NVDA you own.

ARKK at -16% is shockingly bad

Financials are a big winner at +9%. That's a bit under the radar so it might have some way to run.

Emerging market debt closed end fund MSD is winning the fixed income race. Not sure if Igy has that one but hope so.

gold at +12 is a standout. I bought some in the 1Q.

Retail, energy big winners. You wouldn't think they'd both do well, right?

EMD and FAX.

I would gather most CEF funds suffer some with rising interest rates, via the cost of leverage.

Tech taking a big jump after hours with earning announced for Microsoft and Google (Alphabet). That should tech on a little better footing for your ytd results, Agip. Sends Nvidia right off the map with their afterhours move.

Mostly, though, the volatility of the last few weeks has made it just about impossible to get a firm grip on the standings.

Not for the faint of heart....

Can't recall pretty much all of the Mag 7 going great after hours. TSLA has gone from 140 to 172 in 3 days.

check'd Meta lately?

LOL - I checked right before your post. Puts a bit of a downer on the day.

Added a bit after market back into SOXS.

SOXS been plunging lately. Would avoid.

SOXS was trading at 200 a year ago. Now at 36. OUCH!!!

The good news is Meta was yesterday's AH earnings announcement, and Google and Microsoft are both today's AH. So, Meta has already been digested by the markets, and even recuperated off it's lows from this morning.