Down goes the Dow

Looks like it was.

Reduced my leveraged shorts from exposure high by about 60%. Some SOXS lots increased over 60% and TECS over 30%. Raised portfolio cash to 10%.

Earnings Scorecard: For Q1 2024 (with 14% of S&P 500 companies reporting actual results), 74% of S&P 500 companies have reported a positive EPS surprise and 58% of S&P 500 companies have reported a positive revenue surprise.

“The Magnificent 7 stocks have erased $400 BILLION of market cap today alone.

Nvidia, $NVDA, accounts for HALF of today's losses with a $200 billion downswing in market cap.

—The Kobeissi Letter

Saw this from Sean Tuffy (@SMTuffy) today.

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From my former athlete in Buda: “It took 8 years to figure out that if you want thick beautiful Bluebonnets in your yard you must add decomposed granite!”

https://imgur.com/a/ocystLh

Buda, one of those Texas locations that isn't pronounced the way you would think. Some others are Bexar and Manor. I believe I mentioned before that the Bluebonnets were blooming earlier this year. Next weekend is Georgetown's Red Poppy Festival!

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Our wildflower, along with mustard in spring.

In California Paso Robles was pronounced anyway other than Spanish, at least when I lived there.

Apparently a year ago TSLA got a raft of downgrades. Mixed call, wall street.

A year ago the stock was around $165

After the downgrades, TSLA surged to $281

but then it fell back to today's $147.

Good call or bad call? Shows how much harder it is to predict a stock price than future biz success. The street was correct that the company was in for some things...but the stock didn't agree for a while.

https://x.com/SMiguelVieira/status/1648997923487637507

here's druckenmiller talking about the crash of 1987 but it sure sounds like today

https://x.com/DonMiami3/status/1718292055448060266

ooof. This guy, who got 300,000 views for this tweet, literally pegged the very very bottom of the market, in Oct 2023, after which we got a wild 27% rally in just 5 months. I mean he pegged it to the day.

Although maybe he'd argue that we hit his 'corrective base' level so his call was a correct one.

tom 🖍
@tomthetrader1
S&P 500 thoughts: A severe correction underway. Following six successive rejections at the medium term (50-day) moving average the index is at a point of accelerating towards a correction bottom.
It is my thought that the ongoing decline will accelerate once the 4215 level is broken, paving towards a 3950 - 4100 correction base.
The current correction has a sense of market deja vu, with distinct similarities to the corrections observed in 2022. Relief rallies consistently finding rejection at the moving averages and breadth remaining weak.
Last week marked the seventh consecutive week of negative market breadth. Undeniably more stocks are hitting new lows than new highs. Until breadth improves, my approach is that all market rallies should be viewed as little more than temporary relief.

10:04 AM · Oct 22, 2023
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310.1K
Views

Not a good day for Igy ...

SOXS - down 5%

TECS - down almost 3%

HSGFX - down (as if it would ever be up) about 1%

Wonder if Igy will tell us how much he lost today

Sally,

I guess you missed this. EM bonds CEFs up as much as the market, overall account up 0.66%.

Thanks for thinking of me.

Igy

Nice!

Igy is too wily for the bears!

a year ago this poster felt the rise in consumer debt was a harbinger of the apocalypse.

it wasn't. The consumer has been powering ahead and leading the economy.

Dr. Stack Sats & HODL
@NoBagHolder
I'm sure everything is fine. Credit card debt going parabolic usually means society is flush. Especially when the parabolic move happens right after the Fed starts raising rates at a pace unmatched in history.🤪

6:54 AM · Apr 21, 2023
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5,819
Views

Similarly, 5 months ago this poster felt credit card defaults at small banks were bad news.

to be fair, cc default rates have continued to rise and are the highest in 10 years.

Game of Trades
@GameofTrades_
Default rate on credit card loans from small lenders has spiked to 7.51%
This level is higher than:
- Dot Com bubble
- Financial Crisis
- C-19
This is not looking good

oof. Bad call.

SPX +7% since the call

Carl Quintanilla
@carlquintanilla
JPM DESK: “.. The pollyannish end to 2023 appears to be modestly more than a short squeeze with the benefit of hindsight and a calendar. .. This am’s ostensibly good ISM print wasn’t enough, as now that the calendar reads 2024, it’s about the potential impact on growth and earnings and not the good softening of 2023. .. it’s hard to be excited about the market in the near term from a positioning standpoint, given how much has changed in the past ~2 months.” $SPX
7:31 PM · Jan 3, 2024
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40.2K
Views

six months since this doomer call. Not paying off yet.

Game of Trades
@GameofTrades_
Permanent job losses have been accelerating aggressively
This metric used to be around -60% in June 2022
And now stands at a staggering 19.9% in Oct 2023
Big spikes in this indicator have systematically led to a recession
Current rate of increase is comparable to the Dot Com bubble, Financial Crisis and the Pandemic
All 3 ended with a sharp economic downturn and a sharp rise in the unemployment rate
This time is not different

12:07 PM · Oct 22, 2023
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103.4K
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