Down goes the Dow

coach d,

One diifference from 1998-2000 to 2009 until today during the earlier time period you had to be at your desk before market open and during market hours to trade stocks. Today the majority of the trading is done on the institutional side thru high frequency trading. That money will not stay long if the market continues to trade down.

Igy

coach d wrote:

[quoteAgip wrote:

Aw come on. There are always a few stocks that shoot out the lights. I bet even in bear markets you can find some stocks that double and triple. you have not established a parallel between 98 'and today - you have simply made an observation that is always true.

I'm talking about large companies--MANH is only ~$5 billion, but NFLX and ILMN are in the $30-40 billion market cap, so in the top 100-150 companies--and you don't see companies of that size double and triple in a bear market unless something really strange is going on, like it's no longer a bear market.

As for comparison between now an 1998-1999:

[/quote]

is coach d k5? neither seems to know how to use the quote function.

anyway, you'll have to show me some evidence that the market today is as narrow as it was in the tech bubble.

fact is this:

Regular sp500 ytd: -3.75%

Equal weigted SP 500 ytd: -4.93%

and that's overstated because I'm using ETF proxies and the equal weigted fund is much more expensive than the regular sp500.

So there is some concentration, sure - the market is narrower than it is broad, but nothing like 98.

Heck, just to hurt your argument even more, small caps are doing the same as the reg sp500 - down around 3.75%. By definition that means there is no supernarrowing of the market.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

SHAK -8.05% Monday 9/14 11:25 am Eastern Time

Shake Shack Inc. (SHAK) -NYSE  Watchlist

53.63 Up 1.65(3.17%) 12:07PM EDT - Nasdaq Real Time Price

I'm up 10.25% so far

Goal is 20% - would pay for a real dinner at a fancyplace.

Big Money:

Most volume up NASDAQ: SPY, INTC,GE, GDX, MSFT, QQQ, FTR, XIV, AAPL, EEM

Clearly institutional money driving the trading. Interesting that half the most up are ETFs and most of the rest are very large companies. High frequency trading positions can be bought and dumped easily.

Retail stock traders provide liquidity to the market and nothing else. In the end, the folks with the ETrade accounts will hold the stocks the institutions want to dump.

Igy

is coach d k5? neither seems to know how to use the quote function.

Another false ad hominem from the always classless agip who apparently does not know that you start a sentence with a capital letter.

Sad, really.

Ah the irony wrote:

is coach d k5? neither seems to know how to use the quote function.

Another false ad hominem from the always classless agip who apparently does not know that you start a sentence with a capital letter.

Sad, really.

K5 chimes in. Apparently K5 does not realize that 'Sad, really' is not a sentence.

K5 is not coach d. The former writes hate filled posts while the latter offers insight to the topic at hand.

However, K5 is not the only one here calling for Dow 13K. Is it coincidence that both K5 and GOI chose the same number? And neither seems to respond well to criticism. Hmmmmm....

Just Saying,

I actually think the Dow will go lower than 13,000, but since that is the number someone mentioned, I used it as a benchmark bet with POTO.

Respectful criticism is fine, but when one throws out insults or backhanded compliments I will act in kind. Having a market view, which can be supported by data, and is not stocks all the time, subjects the author to distain. Much of the criticism I have received, are blanket statements, not backed by an iota of data. On the other hand, I have supported my views with data and articles from a variety of sources.

Igy

You have initiated the insults and backhanded compliments on occasion, so don't try to act all innocent.

And the OP also predicted the Dow would go under 13,000. You're in good company.

POTO,

OK, as usually you act your part.

Igy

ok so the sp500 is now 6.6% up off the lows, which are now 17 trading days ago.

SP500 still 6.7% below its 52 wk highs, although less if you count dividends.

I've been using ETFs as market proxies to include dividends...but that's a problem now that they had that major meltdown - not sure how to solve that one. the metldown created artificial lows for many of them.

Obvi tomorrow is a big day.

I hope they raise rates - policy can't be slave to market tantrums - clearly the US economy has traction and is moving on.

agip,

The US economy has been in 2% GDP growth for while now, so traction is no different, and perhaps less than what is was two years ago. Once the Fed backed off easy money policy in November the stock market has been declining in some form. Clearly we need to get off the zero bound, but my sense is that will not be good for stocks. Tomorrow only is significant for the HFT community who will make money which ever direction the Fed goes, in the meantime Muppets will be drawn in to hold the scraps. Top active NASDAQ stocks: SPY, GE, GDX, EEM, BAC, XIV, S, NUGT, EWJ, and AAPL.

Igy

Any rate increase is already built into the market.

Big,

That is nonsense. Nothing is built into the market. What happens if there is no increase?

Igy

The market will go up.

Big,

I agree the most likely outcome would be up. There are some who believe there would be a big sell off based on the thought that "oh, must be worse than we think."

Anyway, with my value slant, I think the market is overvalued and it does not matter relative to where we will be over the next year.

I guess that's what makes a market.

I will stay with my short for now.

Igy

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

agip,

The US economy has been in 2% GDP growth for while now, so traction is no different, and perhaps less than what is was two years ago. Once the Fed backed off easy money policy in November the stock market has been declining in some form. Clearly we need to get off the zero bound, but my sense is that will not be good for stocks. Tomorrow only is significant for the HFT community who will make money which ever direction the Fed goes, in the meantime Muppets will be drawn in to hold the scraps. Top active NASDAQ stocks: SPY, GE, GDX, EEM, BAC, XIV, S, NUGT, EWJ, and AAPL.

Igy

yeah, exactly - growth has traction - it has been steady but not great. Not sure what you mean about a november change - you mean the ending of QE?

but that was ending all through 2014 and the markets charged much higher that year. Not sure why you think that last little bit ending in the fall of 2014 was significant.

well sleep up gents - should be a fascinating afternoon.

agip,

The Taper and end of QE was the first tightening and more significant than a possible quarter point move. Oil collapsed and the dollar strengthened as QE was reduced. The market moved thru 2014 and to news highs in 2015 in narrowing breadth largely thru the efforts on large institutions. Just today Oracle reported GAAP earnings of 0.40 a share on expected earnings of 0.52 a share. Naturally the hucksters of CNBC highlighted a beat using adjusted non-GAAP earnings of 0.53 a share. The ability of the market to move higher is based on the willingness of investors pay more for stocks with declining earnings and has little to do with what the Federal Reserve does. The Federal Reserve has used all of the bazookas and is left with a pea shooter and a dozen spit balls. The same is true of the global central banks.

Igy

So the potential rate hike IS baked into the market. Make up your mind.