Down goes the Dow

Jeremy Grantham: "If you want a long bull market, you need high unemployment, depressed margins, and depressed P/Es. It’s beautiful double-counting - multiplying depressed earnings by a low P/E. Multiplying peak earnings by a high P/E, which we’re doing today, is also double jeopardy."

lol are they the Devo-style ones?

Retired I have been mulling over corporates, doing some reading on risk profiles vs stocks+treasuries. Do your sovereign bonds receive favorable tax treatment? My bills here are getting a good rate, and they are exempt from state tax, so that I don't have to move to Florida etc to reduce my tax burden.

You must have a firm belief that commercial rates will come down significantly over some reasonable time period, and that significant inflation will not persist. Am I missing something? Why are they so great that you think they're a "generational opportunity"?

So would your neighbors.

mas, one man’s generational opportunity is another man’s lump of coal. For me, I see a chance to surpass our target returns (~5%), with almost no downside risk. There is of course a small chance of default, and still small but bigger chance of being called before maturity. Both risks can be reduced through diversification. I’m not so much fixed on price as the plan is to hold to maturity. That said, if / when rates fall, some price increases might produce interesting selling opportunities. My thoughts shouldn’t be generalized to others who have different situations than me. Except to say that I do think bonds in general are a better bet for everyone than they have been in the past 10-20 years, and they ought to perform better relative to equities in the next 5, 10 or 20 years, suggesting that a higher weight in bonds than in the past might be a good idea for a lot of folks. Or, maybe just for me. 🙂

Also, I actually think there’s at least 50-50 chance that inflation doesn’t come back near 2%, but instead stays ~3-5% over the balance of my time on earth. I think there’s some reason to think the low inflation (and explosive growth of US markets) period between the fall of the Berlin Wall to 2022 was mainly a result of the global order being dominated by a single superpower with relative calm. With the current rise in significant conflict, authoritarianism, illiberal democracy, and emergence of 2-4 new major powers, plus many feisty lesser powers, I think we are in for some chaotic decades ahead, and the recent “normal” may be firmly in the rear view mirror.

https://imgur.com/a/JRDswDO

One of my sisters sent me this pic. It's probably Newname!

Open image

Open image

Nice paint job. But maybe pick up the garden hose before snapping the photo next time? ;)

Good point. I did mow the lawn Sunday though.

https://x.com/zerohedge/status/1778055028986839469?s=61

The environmentalist among you would be happy to know I use a dandelion digger to weed.

OFF TO{IC:
same here.

And this year I used a hand thatcher and a manual lawn coring aerator as well, reseeded problem areas, and added a sprinkling of new topsoil. That's retirement for you.

Using a "dandelion digger to weed" is one for the ages for Down with the Dow. Not complaining -love things being shaken up - but this is very different. Not sure I would ever know how to use a dandelion digger.

An old unusable large flathead screwdriver would serve the same purpose. Everyone has one of those, right?

I used Scotts EZ Seed with very poor results. Advertised for bare spots shady areas, going back to just grass seed and some soil.

https://imgur.com/a/og4oysZ

:-)

OFF TOPIC:

No lie - I just use stuff that shows up on my porch. A neighbor works for a hardware store and got me topsoil and seed, not sure what they were. I've done lots of shop work favors for them over the years. He also gave me a little moss-out that I used on a second pass after the hand thatching didn't get quite everything. I was told it was environmentally friendly, ferrous sulfate based I think.

Seeding is working well, it is situated and sprouting very delicately. Will be gingerly mowing lawn today as it can't really wait any longer.

A pretty significant day in the markets, and nobody posting? Is this thread dead? Where is agip, does he still avoid inconvenient days?

Maybe it's too nice outside everywhere today. I'm only in because I'm sick, have some sort of cold and feel really tired.

Stocks down, yields up, rate-cut uncertainty in the forefront.

I made a bit on an MSTR trade today, the volatility is amazing. I'm too chicken to bet a lot, though.

Glad today that I'm ultralightweight equities.

I cleaned an area of our yard that had six trees and some brush. Thinned the trees to get more sun, cleaned the underbrush. The grass on the border was thin, mostly due to lack of sun. That is the area I am trying to fill in. The EZ seed was seed encapsulated in fertilizer. I believe it was a bird and squirrel favorite since nothing came up.