Rising unemployment is probably the biggest threat right now in the cycle...recessions frequently start after unemployment starts to rise. Hard to keep up all the hiring of boom times like we are in.
And that's probably why the Fed will cut rates this year despite seemingly solid growth...unemployment is rising and they need to cut rates to make sure the lag between a rate cut and its effect doesn't mean it's too late to bolster the economy when it needs bolstering.
CA unemployment has since risen to 5.3% so this is a real thing.
Jeff Weniger @JeffWeniger Always watch California. Unemployment there was 3.8% but has popped to 4.6%. The US unemployment rate hasn't popped with it. Not yet. Up we go.
“This week i've written about how analyst optimism has turned down (defined as % of eps upgrades, 6m mav). What surprised me given all the hype about AI boosting profits is optimism topped out at only 50%. As an ex-girlfriend once said to me, ‘is that it?’.”
Earnings Growth: For Q1 2024, the estimated (year-over-year) earnings growth rate for the S&P 500 is 3.6%. If 3.6% is the actual growth rate for the quarter, it will mark the third-straight quarter of year-over-year earnings growth for the index.
DOW: UP 4.98% YTD as of close yesterday (rough day so far today)
Flagpole: UP 6.74% YTD as of close yesterday.
Nice going, FP. I'm up, also.
Nasdaq: +9.3% (not including dividends)
I would say that the volatility has been fairly high. At least it seems like it.
Seattle - please don't say "Nice going Flagpole, I'm up also." Please don't say that. Flagpole has been making ridiculous claims here and ones that are not statistically possible. He is a journalism guy so he doesn't know statistics and doen't know how his claims are nonsensical. So do what we do - tell Flagpole - "You did great FP, just great." and just leave it at that.
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