Down goes the Dow

I've been right about China....and you.

12 months it is then. At the risk of piling on, I believe you just doubled down on stupid.

By the way, let's not forget that the "no China recession" comment was courtesy of a link that YOU posted.

POTO,

I may be doubling down on a bet that may turn out incorrect over the period alloted, but that judgement is not ignorant of the facts. On the other hand, you are obviously not stupid, but you seem unable to draw conclusions from data before events point out the errors of your logic or lack thereof (pun intended). In the United States the stock market turned down before we entered recession the last two times. Even though China has not entered recession the rate of decline in economic data is on the rise. The United States and Chinese markets are overvalued even with recent declines. Global growth is slowing and can be forecast thru declining energy and commodity prices.

Let's now put the shoe on your foot. Give us your prediction of Dow point total one year from today, and last the 12 twelve month China GDP growth for quarter ending September 2016.

Igy

Snake, igy.

I see on page 5 of the quicksilver piece that when the cape is 25-30, as it is now, the median stock market return is 7.5%. Page 5. Is that so bad?

And that uses the highly questionable 100 year numbers. Which make no sense.

POTO,

Since we have had this debate I have made more from my short than you from your long. That proves more of who was right or wrong than your drivel.

Here is some more fuel for the fire:

http://www.businessinsider.com/barrons-cover-story-warns-alibaba-50-percent-2015-9

Igy

You have no idea how much money I have made. Why do you keep stating these obvious lies? Are you so unsure of your position that you feel the need to drag down others through deceit and misinformation?

That was supposed to say 'danke' not 'snake'

Darn autocorrect

Snake Agip,

My analysis would be that the excessive valuation of the late 1990s makes CAPE 10 above 25 safer when you use the average. The chart gives you a better gauge of where we are. The original work on what became CAPE 10 was done by Graham and Dodd in 1934. Look to Tobin's Q and the Buffett Indicator to get similar results over shorter time periods.

Ignore that data if you like. Let me know if you have a reptilian model that is more reliable.

Igy

POTO,

Oh, poor baby. And you have no problem attacking my integrity or inferring stupidity.

Where may I ask is the deceit and misinformation?

Igy

I just pointed it out to you. Apparently your reading comprehension sucks too.

Go ahead and try to deflect some more. People here aren't as stupid as you think.

[quote]Pointing Out the Obvious wrote:

You have no idea how much money I have made. Why do you keep stating these obvious lies?

I re-read all the recent comments and nobody speculated on your income.

Why do you speak on comments never made?

You have serious issues.

agip wrote:

Try again wrote:

with a lottery, your odds of winning are one in at least a few thousand, probably worse depending.

I figure odds of winning here are around 60%

What calculations did you perform to come up with that 60% figure?

I bent my left leg, straightened my right, did a sort of twisting maneuver which actually hurt a little, reached back, and pulled it out of my rear end.

Solid enough for you?

Although I would have thought you understood the difference between calculations and exercises. I do make the mistake of under-estimating just how dumb you are now and then. But at least you admit you made up a number and then presented it as a legit statistic.

What is it about "I have made more from my short than you from your long" that you don't understand, K5?

K5 detector wrote:

What is it about "I have made more from my short than you from your long" that you don't understand, K5?

And you actually think that means the poster was claiming to know the other dude's income?

You really need to stop picking arguments when you are dead wrong

Pointing Out the Obvious wrote:

Dow 13,000 within the next 12 months? Are you confident enough to adjust our bet to that time frame, or are you still just talking out of your ass?

If this occurs, and it is a real possibility, look forward to your dissembling and your assertions that you were right all along

K5, no one except you said anything about "income". Try to keep up.

K5 detector wrote:

K5, no one except you said anything about "income". Try to keep up.

"You have no idea how much money I have made"

Most people would agree that how much money one makes is oft referred to as one's income.

But you're not most people, are you?. You are far less -- in many ways -- than the average person

K5, then you must agree that "I have made more...than you..." must also refer to income. N'est pas?

About what I expected wrote:

agip wrote:

I bent my left leg, straightened my right, did a sort of twisting maneuver which actually hurt a little, reached back, and pulled it out of my rear end.

Solid enough for you?

.

Although I would have thought you understood the difference between calculations and exercises. I do make the mistake of under-estimating just how dumb you are now and then. But at least you admit you made up a number and then presented it as a legit statistic.

coming from the guy said the Dow would fall to 13,000! Really, nothing you say has much weight.