Down goes the Dow

Nothing I have seen in markets resembles 1999-2000 more than 2023-2024.

Curious comparison to make, apples and oranges. Stocks in the energy sector tend to be better than average dividend payers but switch poor capital appreciation. Over the past 30 years (as far back as I’ve looked closely) it’s usually been the worst performing sector, although it’s not strongly correlated with most other sectors nor the index and has rarely (like the first year or so following 2022 invasion of Ukraine) outperformed. Anyway, there’s no really good reason to compare NVDA to the SP500 energy sector.

I believe the comparison was to earnings, as in the reason to invest in most things is cash flow. Granted this era, this company is something different.

Kind of like this thread:

Here's a reminder of a major reason why the US market is up 25% over the past year: earnings estimates are rising.

A year ago forward EPS for the SP500 was apparently 220.

now it is $245, per factset.

Along those lines, here's B of A in late 2022 predicting calendar 2023 SP500 EPS of just $200.

We'll come in at $220, per factset. So that's a big underestimate.

Although there's one for the bears in this one too - looks like the consensus was $240, and we won't be that high.

Non-GAAP 2023 S&P 500 estimates from different observations over past two years all declined:

6/30/2022 $249.01

12/30/2022. $226.49

12/29/2)023. $213.84

Current 75.8% reported $211.61

GAAP current estimate $190.65

all-time highs SP500 and NASDAQ

Not able to paste on this computer but pretty good article on Yahoo finance about the Vanguard Growth ETF (Vug). For those unsure which of the Mag 7 to invest in - it has 57% in its top 10 holdings ... Mag 7 and Eli Lilly, Visa and Mastercard ... so you have quite a bit of diversity at very low expense ratio.

Stocks have reached "what looks like a permanently high plateau. While I will not attempt to make any exact forecast, I do not feel there will soon, if ever, be a fifty or sixty point break [about 15%] below present levels, such as Mr. Babson has predicted."
- Irving Fisher, 1929

"Stocks have reached "what looks like a permanently high plateau."

"I do not feel there will soon, if ever, be a fifty or sixty point break [about 15%] below present levels,"

Those two declarations belong in the idiotic Hall of Fame statement.

The S & P was around 22 when he said that. It is now 5,042. Igy, you are going to bring better stuff than that.

I agree, there is nothing odd about daily jumps of 5-10-20% in a few individual stocks. It is emblematic of a permanent high plateau, led by AI. The world is forever changed. Robots to wipe a butt. Electronic Groom of the Stool. The dawn of a New Age!

I am just wondering why you posted that statement about the stocks having plateaued when the S & P was at 22 and now at 5,000. You do agree that it was a ridiculous statement, yes?

Absolutely, especially when there was no S&P 500 at that time.

The Dow was about 41 back then. It is now close to 39,000. NOW do you think he made a ridiculous statement?

It's morning in America!