We have indeed just lived through a remarkable central banking+ governing achievement. It will be talked about for the next century.
We dug ourselves out of a deep recession with tons of helicopter cash
and then we killed the inflation in just 1.5 years or so.
All with planet-leading strong growth and full employment.
Very impressive.
So different from after the GFC, when the helicopters had much less cash...the resulting growth was subpar after that one. Learned a lesson.
Mike Konczal @mtkonczal 6-month core PCE: 1.86% 3-month core PCE: 1.52% A year ago these numbers were above 4 percent. I understand the yawns and the sense it's old news, but this is just a massive and wild achievement.
We have indeed just lived through a remarkable central banking+ governing achievement. It will be talked about for the next century.
We dug ourselves out of a deep recession with tons of helicopter cash
and then we killed the inflation in just 1.5 years or so.
All with planet-leading strong growth and full employment.
Very impressive.
So different from after the GFC, when the helicopters had much less cash...the resulting growth was subpar after that one. Learned a lesson.
Mike Konczal @mtkonczal 6-month core PCE: 1.86% 3-month core PCE: 1.52% A year ago these numbers were above 4 percent. I understand the yawns and the sense it's old news, but this is just a massive and wild achievement.
Remarkable also in the slovenly and bizarre behavior it generated.
We have indeed just lived through a remarkable central banking+ governing achievement. It will be talked about for the next century.
We dug ourselves out of a deep recession with tons of helicopter cash
and then we killed the inflation in just 1.5 years or so.
All with planet-leading strong growth and full employment.
Very impressive.
So different from after the GFC, when the helicopters had much less cash...the resulting growth was subpar after that one. Learned a lesson.
Mike Konczal @mtkonczal 6-month core PCE: 1.86% 3-month core PCE: 1.52% A year ago these numbers were above 4 percent. I understand the yawns and the sense it's old news, but this is just a massive and wild achievement.
Remarkable also in the slovenly and bizarre behavior it generated.
Ah our Igy.
Kids these days! Not like the 1970s when people knew the value of a good day's work and there were no drugs or laziness. There was a decade full of law and order! No bizarre behavior allowed by polite society in the 1970s!
This post was edited 29 seconds after it was posted.
I worked a full time job while running a 2:19 marathon in 1974. Fifty years ago. Yes the 1970s were weird, but not in my world, and not the predominant culture. Not so today.
Sure fifty years is a long time. However, look at the decline in morals and quality of life just since 2010. The concept of meritocracy as a bas thing, and the excuses made for people that are really just lazy slobs wanting someone else to foot the bill. And all Americans bear responsibility for tolerating this nonsense. And your helicopter money feeds the beast.
Sure fifty years is a long time. However, look at the decline in morals and quality of life just since 2010. The concept of meritocracy as a bas thing, and the excuses made for people that are really just lazy slobs wanting someone else to foot the bill. And all Americans bear responsibility for tolerating this nonsense. And your helicopter money feeds the beast.
I think you are cherry picking the bad people to worry about and ignoring the vast middle current of America that is doing the same thing it has always done: Work a lot and spend a lot.
Perhaps, but on the other hand transfer payments and work from home has lowered productivity and businesses are having a hard time getting employees back in the office. A former colleague told me another colleague was out of the Morgan Stanley office for a year and a half. A close friend, a manager at the Bureau of Reclamation, had similar stories. Anyway, in my view I see a country in severe decline.
Perhaps, but on the other hand transfer payments and work from home has lowered productivity and businesses are having a hard time getting employees back in the office. A former colleague told me another colleague was out of the Morgan Stanley office for a year and a half. A close friend, a manager at the Bureau of Reclamation, had similar stories. Anyway, in my view I see a country in severe decline.
Ah but look at this magnificent chart. The US economy is a massive battleship. Hard to push it off course.
Culture is a different question I suppose. Once we get past 50 it's hard to think well of the next generation. I can't even imagine what the 50 and 60 somethings felt about the crazy nutty 70s. I mean i
magine being born in 1910 and live through poverty, WW1, the Spanish Flu, The Actual Great Depression, WW2, etc...and then late in life you had to deal with the 1970s' crazy weirdness. I always feel a little bad for those who died in the 1970s and the last thing they felt was that the whole jig was over. the 1970s were bad. And those 60 somethings were thinking that of your generation. Then the economy absolutely boomed and rocked for a generation.
Anyway: be heartened! Look at this monster that is us!
We were caregivers for my father-in-law for seven years. A WW II vet, shot down over Vienna, a year in a German prisoner of war camp. He died in 2011. He could not imagine the weird stuff floated in this country since then. I am confident he would consider most of it shameful and a kick in the face.
I worked a full time job while running a 2:19 marathon in 1974. Fifty years ago. Yes the 1970s were weird, but not in my world, and not the predominant culture. Not so today.
Perhaps, but on the other hand transfer payments and work from home has lowered productivity and businesses are having a hard time getting employees back in the office. A former colleague told me another colleague was out of the Morgan Stanley office for a year and a half. A close friend, a manager at the Bureau of Reclamation, had similar stories. Anyway, in my view I see a country in severe decline.
The CEOs are cutting back big time on work-from-home. Productivity is way down.. do you think anyone working from home starts working at 8?
Perhaps, but on the other hand transfer payments and work from home has lowered productivity and businesses are having a hard time getting employees back in the office. A former colleague told me another colleague was out of the Morgan Stanley office for a year and a half. A close friend, a manager at the Bureau of Reclamation, had similar stories. Anyway, in my view I see a country in severe decline.
The CEOs are cutting back big time on work-from-home. Productivity is way down.. do you think anyone working from home starts working at 8?
productivity **was** way down. It's back to normal growth now.
Perhaps, but on the other hand transfer payments and work from home has lowered productivity and businesses are having a hard time getting employees back in the office. A former colleague told me another colleague was out of the Morgan Stanley office for a year and a half. A close friend, a manager at the Bureau of Reclamation, had similar stories. Anyway, in my view I see a country in severe decline.
The CEOs are cutting back big time on work-from-home. Productivity is way down.. do you think anyone working from home starts working at 8?
Maybe less do (start working at 8 AM), but they don't stop working at 5 PM and Friday afternoons, either. That happened a whole lot less when workers reported to the office and clocked out at a set time.
People try to put us d-down (Talkin' 'bout my generation) Just because we get around (Talkin' 'bout my generation) Things they do look awful c-c-cold (Talkin' 'bout my generation) I hope I die before I get old (Talkin' 'bout my generation)
This is my generation This is my generation, baby
Why don't you all f-f-fade away (Talkin' 'bout my generation) And don't try to dig what we all s-s-say (Talkin' 'bout my generation) I'm not tryin' to cause a big s-s-sensation (Talkin' 'bout my generation) I'm just talkin' 'bout my g-g-g-generation (Talkin' 'bout my generation)
Yeah, I'm sittin' on this barstool Talkin' like a damn fool Got the twelve o'clock news blues And I've given up hope On the afternoon soaps And a bottle of cold brew Is it any wonder I'm not crazy Is it any wonder I'm sane at all Well, I'm so tired of losin' I got nothin' to do With all day to do it Well, I'd go out cruisin' But I've no place to go And all night to get there Is it any wonder I'm not a criminal Is it any wonder I'm not in jail Is it any wonder I've got too much time on my hands It's tickin' away with my sanity I've got too much time on my hands It's hard to believe such a calamity I've got too much time on my hands And it's tickin' away Tickin' away from me It's t-t-t-t-t-tickin' away (Too much time on my hands) Now I don't know what to do (Too much time on my hands) Now I'm a jet fuel genius I can solve the world's problems Without even trying I've got dozens of friends And the fun never ends That is, as long as I'm buying Is it any wonder I'm not the President Is it any wonder I'm null and void Is it any wonder I've got too much time on my hands It's tickin' away with my sanity I've got too much time on my hands It's hard to believe such a calamity I've got too much time on my hands And it's tickin' away Tickin' away from me T-t-t-t-t-t-t-tickin' away And I don't know what to do with myself Mmm T-t-t-t-tickin' away Mmm Too much time on my hands Too much time on my hands
The CEOs are cutting back big time on work-from-home. Productivity is way down.. do you think anyone working from home starts working at 8?
Maybe less do (start working at 8 AM), but they don't stop working at 5 PM and Friday afternoons, either. That happened a whole lot less when workers reported to the office and clocked out at a set time.
Two-way street, that one.
I disagree mightily. You have so many distractions at home. At the office you have nothing to do but work. Working makes the day go by more quickly.
How about this: for every topic sentence Gente includes in a post... each of us venmos him $1.
I take it you didn't read it. I would find it interesting to see a list of history and finance books you, and all the other usual suspects that post here, have read in the past year.
Maybe less do (start working at 8 AM), but they don't stop working at 5 PM and Friday afternoons, either. That happened a whole lot less when workers reported to the office and clocked out at a set time.
Two-way street, that one.
I disagree mightily. You have so many distractions at home. At the office you have nothing to do but work. Working makes the day go by more quickly.
I don't disagree. I was knitpicking about the fact that work from home blurs the lines between work and home life.
As for how any particular individual manages work from home or office work probably varies.
I do know that when I was working managing projects during the pandemic, accountability of almost everyone I interacted with was much worse than when work from office was the norm, and by a great margin.
In the final analysis, I definitely lean towards the belief that a return to office will generally bring about increased productivity and efficiencies.
This post was edited 58 seconds after it was posted.
Reason provided:
oh no, typo!
Sally has made this point a few times - that buying after a bad year like 2022 is usually a good strategy for the brave. Worked in 2023, certainly.
Ryan Detrick, CMT @RyanDetrick The average year sees the S&P 500 pullback 13.7% and gain 20.2% a year off those lows. But large bears (like last yr) see much better returns. When there's a >25% bear or greater, stocks are up 38.0% a yr later and lower only once out of 9 times (2001). Bodes well for 2023.
11:14 PM · Jan 20, 2023 ·
Agip - at the gym right now so can't access that chart I have shown a few times (I think NASDAQ) but in the last 50 years (outside of 2000-2002) there has not been consecutive down years AND a bad year (haven't been too many) has almost always been followed by an an even better good or great year.
If one wants to see how often in the past the NASDAQ was down from the year before and was down a year later, the correct method is take every trading day that is down from the year before ( 252 trading days ), not just the last trading day of the year.
First, a disclaimer;
stationarity is one of the most important concepts in probability and statistics the essence of its meaning is that the specific pattern you are trying to understand is constant in a probabilistic sense technically, its unconditional joint probability distribution does not shift over time. in blackjack, the rules of the game are known and constant, and based on the cards seen so far we can know the probabilities of the outcomes of the next hand. in finance, the underlying structure of the world is complex, unknown, and changes over time. there is little in the way of objective, certain truth. any historical data analysis assuming otherwise under-states the uncertainty around forward looking forecasts. ( Benn Eifert )
Looking at the past, up to 1/25/2024, the NASDAQ will be lower 24.59% from a year ( 252 trading days ) earlier. The following year it is lower 28.6% of the time. If the Index is higher from a year earlier, the following year is down 23.92% of the time. A down year has been followed by a down year more often than an up year is followed by a down year.
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