Down goes the Dow

As SOX goes goes the market? SOX is up 11.5% from Jan 4 lows...

How are you getting that? It started the year at around 6.4, was around 7.2 on Jan. 4, and closed at 4.98 yesterday.

SOX is the semiconductor index, doofus. SOXS is the semiconductor 3x short.

This is what you said you bought 3 days ago:

"How about what Igy is buying? SOXS is up 6% today. :-)"

Solid maybe

Wait, did you manage to extend your already statistically impossible winning streak in 2023 as well? I missed the update on that.

Pretty sure that he did. In fact, rather certain.

oops

Although to be fair new ETFs often take a few days to settle down to trading at NAV consistently.

@Barchart
BlackRock's iShares Spot Bitcoin ETF has declined 18.74% since its launch last week, while the underlying asset $BTC has declined less than half as much. Not a great start!

There are very few certainties in life ...

Death

Taxes

The fat lady singing before the opera is over

The Cowboys choking in the playoffs

Life turning out different than we expected

Flagpole beating the Dow Jones (year after year after year ... to infinity}

1) Not impossible. VERY possible.

2) I lost BIG TIME to the Dow in 2022.

3) I did MUCH better than the Dow in 2023 (13.7% for the Dow and over 23% for me).

4) My stuff is so diversified these days and likely not to change too much going forward, that it is likely I will not continue the very good win percentage I've had against the Dow since 1989 (some lucky moves in there and then some early company stock that did well that I had no choice about owning that primed the results too). I don't need to do better than the Dow though...and I didn't need to up until now either. Becoming wealthy beyond belief is easy...invest a ton in stock-containing mutual funds non-stop over your whole working life.

For the record, I would estimate that I beat the Dow not more than about 50% of the time based on a year by year, annual basis.

I have greatly outperformed it over the longer duration timeframes like 5-year, 10-year, and my overall investment history period.

That is possible because the years that I outperform it (DJIA), my outperformance is much larger than my underperformance in my losing years.

So, overall, I would guess that in my 28 year investment history (brokerage accounts, not work retirement account), I have beat the Dow only maybe 16 of those years, so:

beat the Dow 16 of 28.

Again just a guess, but I don't really care, much more interested in the long term since I expect up and down years and I am more concerned with long term performance.

I am also ONLY concerned about long-term performance. Early on in my investing life, I randomly picked The Dow as the index to base how I did in that calendar year against. Even a calendar year is arbitrary. None of it matters except for the final pile.

That's for sure.

On a down trend, I basically watch what percentage I am off my All Time High (ATH). and gauge my response strategy based on that.

I can see why you would have picked the Dow- many years ago, it was a shorthand for the market since it was easy to keep an accounting of 30 single companies as opposed to hundreds as is the case in other indices. This was true until technology made possible real time tracking of everything, including hundreds of publicly traded companies, effortless.

It's instructive to understand how one's portfolio compares in risk against the DJIA, and the index is likely more conservative, As such, it will suffer smaller downturns but greatly limits the upside. Since the markets have generally been rising, a more aggressive portfolio is one that would outperform a conservative index like the DJIA overall (over longer timeframes).

Don't look now but futures creeping up....

Enough to 'load my shorts' and 'knock your SOXS off.'

HA!

I am 12% cash, 5% short, and will continue to reduce shorts if necessary. I expect institutional traders to attempt to push the S&P 500 to 5,000, using retail as liquidity. A failure to advance at some point will push the same traders short, in a big way.

well, that leaves a whole lot of something else. I know there's some emerging markets debt, but surely not to the tune of 80% or more.

And the shorts are leveraged, so maybe more than 5% exposure given the leveraging.

Don't feel that you need to answer, but it does raise the question where the bulk of your strategy lies.

EM bond CEFs largest position, but significant income monthly, which is going to cash at the moment. Agreed the shorts leverage increases risk, but I was positive by about 3% on Wednesday. So things can change in a hurry. I may even add back in a bit if markets are up big Monday.

From a year ago.

We did hit 5% on the 10 year but the stock market hit all-time highs a few months later.

Why are people so convinced the US is a house of cards?

HZ
@MFHoz
The 10Y is consolidating before its final move upward to 5%. This will be the final nail in the coffin for this market. I expect the S&P 500 to plunge to 2000, the Russell 2000 to drop to 1000, and the Nasdaq 100 to fall to 6500.
4:14 PM · Jan 17, 2023
·
516.1K
Views