Carl Quintanilla @carlquintanilla “We don’t foresee recessions this year in the US, Europe, or China .. The summer could be tough for stocks if Democrats and Republicans can’t get a quick deal on the debt ceiling” — but with a deal, we see stocks “up for the year and getting closer to .. record high ..” @yardeni
You know the phrase 'overcrowded trade?' Meaning when it feels like too many people own one stock or one sector, causing prices to rise too much? The thought is we should avoid overcrowded trades because prices are too high there.
This tweet says some form of big tech has been cited as the most crowded trade for six+ years. And still that amazing performance from the sector
5 yrs: 24% per year
10 yrs: 19% per year
Tech just seems to be the best thing to invest in, period. No questions.
In my world, 'how much to overweight tech' is one of the 2-3 biggest decisions.
And 'should we be contrarians' is another question. This data point says 'no.'
Skanda Amarnath reposted Joe Weisenthal @TheStalwart · 43m THE INCREDIBLE CONSISTENCY OF THE MARKET'S 'MOST CROWDED' TRAT This chart from the most recent BofAML fund manager survey is pretty wild when you think about it. Over the last 6+ years, virtually every single month, some flavor of 'big tech' has been identified as most crowded.
THE INCREDIBLE CONSISTENCY OF THE MARKET'S 'MOST CROWDED' TRAT
This chart from the most recent BofAML fund manager survey is pretty wild when you think about it.
Over the last 6+ years, virtually every single month, some flavor of 'big tech' has been identified as most crowded. pic.twitter.com/wj0JZtnOxY
Agip - "Tech just seems to be the best thing to invest in, period. No questions."
Success breeds success. - Will Durant but he might have stolen from Aristotle.
The original meaning of that phrase is not really what Agip is talking about - but in some ways it is. FOMO - what Warren Buffet used to talk about - Fear of missing out - is one reason why the tech stocks continue to do so well. Investors have witnessed how consistently great the tech stocks have been for some time now and they want to reap some of those returns.
Jamie Dimon just went on CNBC and said people are voting for Trump because he was right about the economy, immigration, and China:
"I don't like how Trump said things, but he wasn't wrong about those critical issues. That's why they're voting for him. People should be more… pic.twitter.com/nkuWqXNlzW
Americans (idiots) will vote for him for 2 reasons: 1) abortion, and 2) because he’s not Biden/a Democrat.
But really, it’s 80% number (1) above. His having appointed a court that rightly sent the issue back to the states was the biggest single thing any R has ever done to endear himself to his base, and to anybody on the fence.
Elections here are nothing but a vote on abortion, and an image war.
President of Argentina Javier Milei STUNS room of globalists at the World Economic Forum into SILENCE after exposing them to their faces for destroying the West 🔥🔥🔥: “I'm here to tell you that the western world is in danger and it is endangered because those who are supposed to have to defend the values of the West are co-opted by a vision of the world that inextricably leads to socialism and thereby to poverty.”
Americans (idiots) will vote for him for 2 reasons: 1) abortion, and 2) because he’s not Biden/a Democrat.
But really, it’s 80% number (1) above. His having appointed a court that rightly sent the issue back to the states was the biggest single thing any R has ever done to endear himself to his base, and to anybody on the fence.
Elections here are nothing but a vote on abortion, and an image war.
The Dobbs ruling may actually be Trump’s downfall. It was an unpopular decision and should help to get out the vote for those opposed who are likely to vote Democrat.
Americans (idiots) will vote for him for 2 reasons: 1) abortion, and 2) because he’s not Biden/a Democrat.
But really, it’s 80% number (1) above. His having appointed a court that rightly sent the issue back to the states was the biggest single thing any R has ever done to endear himself to his base, and to anybody on the fence.
Elections here are nothing but a vote on abortion, and an image war.
You think Abortion is the big issue? I would say for maybe the religious R's and the leftist D's it is... otherwise I'd say the biggest issue for R's is Immigration.
Biden's opaqueness on immigration as well as his "image" for the reality TV tiktok Joe Rogan americans are his biggest issues.
Carl Quintanilla @carlquintanilla MORGAN STANLEY: $SPX “appears we have simply rallied right into key resistance yet again. Until that resistance is broken convincingly, we see no reason to change our view for lower lows given our earnings forecast.” [$195, bear case $180] [Wilson] (1/x)
Americans (idiots) will vote for him for 2 reasons: 1) abortion, and 2) because he’s not Biden/a Democrat.
But really, it’s 80% number (1) above. His having appointed a court that rightly sent the issue back to the states was the biggest single thing any R has ever done to endear himself to his base, and to anybody on the fence.
Elections here are nothing but a vote on abortion, and an image war.
You think Abortion is the big issue? I would say for maybe the religious R's and the leftist D's it is... otherwise I'd say the biggest issue for R's is Immigration.
Biden's opaqueness on immigration as well as his "image" for the reality TV tiktok Joe Rogan americans are his biggest issues.
New intermediate term trade idea:
if you accept the following, which I generally do:
1/ US economy will continue to be fine
2/ Stocks will meander out of worry about election, global wars, absorbing 2023's big gains
3/ interest rates likely to fall because of falling inflation
Then why not buy short term junk bonds? they should thrive in that environment, and you get your 7-8% yield while waiting for the summer or fall when the election will be clearer so people will feel better about placing bets. They should also benefit some if rates fall or stocks rally.
So own short term junk until Julyish. I'll put it in my DGTD prediction calendar.
This post was edited 10 minutes after it was posted.
Americans (idiots) will vote for him for 2 reasons: 1) abortion, and 2) because he’s not Biden/a Democrat.
But really, it’s 80% number (1) above. His having appointed a court that rightly sent the issue back to the states was the biggest single thing any R has ever done to endear himself to his base, and to anybody on the fence.
Elections here are nothing but a vote on abortion, and an image war.
You think Abortion is the big issue? I would say for maybe the religious R's and the leftist D's it is... otherwise I'd say the biggest issue for R's is Immigration.
Biden's opaqueness on immigration as well as his "image" for the reality TV tiktok Joe Rogan americans are his biggest issues.
Or simply tired of lunatic globalists pushing bizarre dictates for what purpose?
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