Luckily, we are virtually back to an ATH at the moment, and I've come to within 2% of it recently, and a reasonable person would call that good enough. That being the case, I need to rebalance my portfolio to one with less risk and less stock exposure. Since I am recently retired, now would definitely be the time.
I think I will look into bond funds.
Why is this bumming me out so much?
I have no idea why this is bumming you out so much either. You say you have done better than I have since 1989, and yet I have so much money that I couldn't care less how it is invested or what the return is that I get on it. It's more than I will ever need. Are you a person with a gambling problem or something like that? The only way I can see your claim of doing better than I have since 1989 to be true and yet you are concerned about your portfolion makeup is that you didn't invest enough that whole time. I don't care to know any specifics though...so no need to explain yourself. I'm pretty sure I have the idea.
It's not about the money anymore, it is about performance. Simple, really. Probably isn't all that reasonable, but it's not complicated.
As for assessments like "gambling", I'd probably prefer to not put it in such pejorative terminology.
Edit: to be clear, the part that is bumming me out is the thought of moving out of stocks and into safer bond ETFs.
This post was edited 10 minutes after it was posted.
I have no idea why this is bumming you out so much either. You say you have done better than I have since 1989, and yet I have so much money that I couldn't care less how it is invested or what the return is that I get on it. It's more than I will ever need. Are you a person with a gambling problem or something like that? The only way I can see your claim of doing better than I have since 1989 to be true and yet you are concerned about your portfolion makeup is that you didn't invest enough that whole time. I don't care to know any specifics though...so no need to explain yourself. I'm pretty sure I have the idea.
It's not about the money anymore, it is about performance. Simple, really. Probably isn't all that reasonable, but it's not complicated.
As for assessments like "gambling", I'd probably prefer to not put it in such pejorative terminology.
Edit: to be clear, the part that is bumming me out is the thought of moving out of stocks and into safer bond ETFs.
The gambling comment was about actual gambling, meaning if you had as much money as I do (which I'm kind of thinking you can't possibly at this point), then the only way you'd be concerned about the stock market is because you had a gambling problem (like betting on horses or at a casino).
Anyway, as much as you have no idea how much money I have, I also have no idea how much you have, AND it is also possible that you have made more than 11% annually on average since you started investing in 1995 (you didn't mention that year earlier when you said you had done better than me). I remain skeptical, not because I don't believe YOU, but because I understand how people who trade individual stocks think about gains and losses, and that's not accurate in general...and also due to any concern you have about your money at this point. But, I'm really not interested, so I will not question your value statements going forward.
Luckily, we are virtually back to an ATH at the moment, and I've come to within 2% of it recently, and a reasonable person would call that good enough. That being the case, I need to rebalance my portfolio to one with less risk and less stock exposure. Since I am recently retired, now would definitely be the time.
I think I will look into bond funds.
Why is this bumming me out so much?
I have no idea why this is bumming you out so much either. You say you have done better than I have since 1989, and yet I have so much money that I couldn't care less how it is invested or what the return is that I get on it. It's more than I will ever need. Are you a person with a gambling problem or something like that? The only way I can see your claim of doing better than I have since 1989 to be true and yet you are concerned about your portfolion makeup is that you didn't invest enough that whole time. I don't care to know any specifics though...so no need to explain yourself. I'm pretty sure I have the idea.
Flagpole: "...and yet I have so much money." Is Flagpole EVER going to shut up how much money he has?
Flagpole, I find money very boring. It's a number in an account or on a bank statement, whatever. We live well below our means, and always have. When you have enough for one's basic needs, plus a safety cushion, it means less and less frankly. I know that not everyone thinks like that, but that's my take.
Frankly, if you want my damn opinion, what concerns me most of all is the inequity that exists in our culture - all the advantages my demographic has to get ahead and how the deck is stacked in favor of that demographic. That is not fair, and the fact that one might have done okay has everything to do with some advantages that are not equally accessible throughout our country. That is just one of the reasons I don't like to talk about net worth - it's not equally shared and not a level playing field in its attainment.
What does interest me is investing and the pursuit thereof. It's not really about the proceeds, at least as far as I'm concerned.
I have no idea why this is bumming you out so much either. You say you have done better than I have since 1989, and yet I have so much money that I couldn't care less how it is invested or what the return is that I get on it. It's more than I will ever need. Are you a person with a gambling problem or something like that? The only way I can see your claim of doing better than I have since 1989 to be true and yet you are concerned about your portfolion makeup is that you didn't invest enough that whole time. I don't care to know any specifics though...so no need to explain yourself. I'm pretty sure I have the idea.
Flagpole: "...and yet I have so much money." Is Flagpole EVER going to shut up how much money he has?
Perfect call, this one. SP500 was 4146 at the time, so quite a big move forecasted correctly.
Carl Quintanilla @carlquintanilla “.. Equities are in a bull market .. consensus continues to argue stocks are ‘mispriced’ .. [but] if inflation falls as quickly as we expect, the Fed will tolerate easing financial conditions. Hence, bears are trapped .. We see S&P 500 reaching >4,750 by year end.”
S&P 500 EPS estimates continue to fall. Q1 2022 previous 52 week GAAP EPS came in at an all time high of $197.91, the estimate for Q1 2023 with 3.7% of the companies reporting has fallen to $171.83. I expect this number to continue to fall and be under at least $160 by year end. If so, this would imply a fair value of 2,560 for the S&P 500; $160 GAAP EPS x historic average multiple of 16 = 2,560.
DGTD Prediction Resolution! From 4/7/23
Igy said SP500 earnings would be around $160 which implied an SP500 at around 2560.
Numbers are in-ish...Factset says calendar 2023 earnings should come in at $219, and the SP500 is at 4764.
Although Igy will say 'factset doesn't use GAAP earnings' and maybe he'd be correct I dunno.
S&P 500 EPS estimates continue to fall. Q1 2022 previous 52 week GAAP EPS came in at an all time high of $197.91, the estimate for Q1 2023 with 3.7% of the companies reporting has fallen to $171.83. I expect this number to continue to fall and be under at least $160 by year end. If so, this would imply a fair value of 2,560 for the S&P 500; $160 GAAP EPS x historic average multiple of 16 = 2,560.
DGTD Prediction Resolution! From 4/7/23
Igy said SP500 earnings would be around $160 which implied an SP500 at around 2560.
Numbers are in-ish...Factset says calendar 2023 earnings should come in at $219, and the SP500 is at 4764.
Although Igy will say 'factset doesn't use GAAP earnings' and maybe he'd be correct I dunno.
FactSet like most of Wall Street uses a blended best of Non-GAAP and GAAP. According to S&P with 4% reporting Q4, 2023 tracking Non-GAAP $213 and GAAP $192. $2 Trillion in deficit spending does much to support the bloated fake market.
This post was edited 4 minutes after it was posted.
Perfect call, this one. SP500 was 4146 at the time, so quite a big move forecasted correctly.
Carl Quintanilla @carlquintanilla “.. Equities are in a bull market .. consensus continues to argue stocks are ‘mispriced’ .. [but] if inflation falls as quickly as we expect, the Fed will tolerate easing financial conditions. Hence, bears are trapped .. We see S&P 500 reaching >4,750 by year end.”
7:54 PM · Apr 13, 2023 · 465.6K Views
Agip - when inflation has dropped so much as it has this past year the next year the market does really good almost always.
S&P 500 EPS estimates continue to fall. Q1 2022 previous 52 week GAAP EPS came in at an all time high of $197.91, the estimate for Q1 2023 with 3.7% of the companies reporting has fallen to $171.83. I expect this number to continue to fall and be under at least $160 by year end. If so, this would imply a fair value of 2,560 for the S&P 500; $160 GAAP EPS x historic average multiple of 16 = 2,560.
DGTD Prediction Resolution! From 4/7/23
Igy said SP500 earnings would be around $160 which implied an SP500 at around 2560.
Numbers are in-ish...Factset says calendar 2023 earnings should come in at $219, and the SP500 is at 4764.
Although Igy will say 'factset doesn't use GAAP earnings' and maybe he'd be correct I dunno.
On 3/31/2022 Wall Street consensus estimate for Q4 2023 was $65.48. One year later that was marked down to $57.95. Current tracking is at $53.95.
S&P 500 EPS estimates continue to fall. Q1 2022 previous 52 week GAAP EPS came in at an all time high of $197.91, the estimate for Q1 2023 with 3.7% of the companies reporting has fallen to $171.83. I expect this number to continue to fall and be under at least $160 by year end. If so, this would imply a fair value of 2,560 for the S&P 500; $160 GAAP EPS x historic average multiple of 16 = 2,560.
DGTD Prediction Resolution! From 4/7/23
Igy said SP500 earnings would be around $160 which implied an SP500 at around 2560.
Numbers are in-ish...Factset says calendar 2023 earnings should come in at $219, and the SP500 is at 4764.
Although Igy will say 'factset doesn't use GAAP earnings' and maybe he'd be correct I dunno.
What? Igy was wrong?! I’m shocked I tell ya. Shocked!
Igy said SP500 earnings would be around $160 which implied an SP500 at around 2560.
Numbers are in-ish...Factset says calendar 2023 earnings should come in at $219, and the SP500 is at 4764.
Although Igy will say 'factset doesn't use GAAP earnings' and maybe he'd be correct I dunno.
What? Igy was wrong?! I’m shocked I tell ya. Shocked!
“BREAKING: According to market experts, the economy has entered a ‘super cycle’ because of President Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act. The Inflation Reduction Act is pumping billions of dollars into green energy production and transforming our energy sector for the better.”
“Even More Evidence of the Super Strong Consumer...Can't wait for credit card debt to hit $2.0 trillion. This spending is going somewhere and creating investment and trading opportunities - but this is not a sign of strength. More like a sign of depression.”
Perfect call, this one. SP500 was 4146 at the time, so quite a big move forecasted correctly.
Carl Quintanilla @carlquintanilla “.. Equities are in a bull market .. consensus continues to argue stocks are ‘mispriced’ .. [but] if inflation falls as quickly as we expect, the Fed will tolerate easing financial conditions. Hence, bears are trapped .. We see S&P 500 reaching >4,750 by year end.”
7:54 PM · Apr 13, 2023 · 465.6K Views
Agip - when inflation has dropped so much as it has this past year the next year the market does really good almost always.
CORRECT!
I would add though that part of the reason the market did so well in 2023 was because inflation had been falling steadily all year long. It is tough if not impossible to determine how a given year will do just based on one thing (or even multiple things) as so many things are at play...investors taking profit, unexpected Fed moves, unexpected events of all kinds. So, fun to consider all the possibilities, but as a practical matter, if you're still working or have a spouse who is still working, you should continue to invest for retirement no matter what you think the market will bear.
2) Uncool to kick a man when he's down. Do better.
There is another quote of his when he said best case was around 3000 and could be as low as 2000.
Proof? I do not DISBELIEVE you, but I will not BELIEVE you without proof as I never saw anything like that from him. Agnostic until you prove otherwise.
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