Down goes the Dow

Liar

Your 2023 holdings breakdown will at least demonstrate the truth, or not, of your claimed 2023 returns. This will also provide an opportunity to examine whether an avowed buyer and holder (who is currently admitting having sold many things, in conflict with past declarations of never selling) could have had a portfolio evolve over time to its current breakdown while also having achieved the remarkable feat of beating the DOW in 35 of the past 32 years (or is it now 36 of the past 33, including 2023?).

None of what you’ve told us about your investing has been true, except in the sense you’ve admitted that absence of truth doesn’t define a lie, a bizarre world view. Now I’m starting to doubt your grand claims of unimaginable wealth, big biceps, incomparable musicianship and all that…

Actually, it is even worse than that for Flagpole. Over the last 30 years (since 1993 aright around when Flagpole started investing) the annualized return for the S & P is 9.90%. For the Dow Jones - 10.7%. So, Flagpole says the Dow is the easiest index to beat when instead the Dow has outperformed the S & P over the last 30 years. This gets worse and worse for Flagpole the more we delve into it.

In 2017 the S & P had a return of 19%. The Dow Jones had a return of 24%. Ouch.

Again, Flagpole said the Dow is the easiest of the major indicies to beat when that is just flat out wrong.

To sum up, Flagpole claims he is not tech-heavy - so he doesn't have much of the NASDAQ stocks. Next, he either has a lot of the S & P or a mix of the Dow and S & P. Over the last 30 years the Dow has done better than the S & P, yet Flagpole who is heavy in the S & P or a mixture of the two, claims to have beaten the Dow, when the Dow has a higher annualized return over the S & P. Yet, Flagpole still beat the Dow 32 or 35 out of 33 years. Incredulity abounds.

If you've ever had the pleasure of dealing with a serial fabulist in real life then you know they will never, ever admit to their lies. If you confront them over their falsehoods they resort to deflection and telling even crazier lies, which is exactly the behavior we're seeing from flagpole now.

is that a Kip Litton reference? To the New Yorker story about him?

I am still amazed by that whole episode. And such a great line...something like 'when confronted by a fabulist...'

(for the record I don't think Flagpole is at all fabulist)

Ok...well, I didn't say anything about the last 9 years, though to be fair, I would not have guessed that about the last 9 years (showing my humility there, which is strong with me). Over their history, the Dow has underperformed the NASDAQ and the S&P 500. You can always find a snippet of time where the norm doesn't hold true. I have been investing since 1989 after all. The S&P 500 has done 10.52% on average annually since 1989.

Nope. Not wrong. Over their existences, the Dow underperforms the NASDAQ and the S&P 500. Fact. Try again. I will be wrong about something at some point, but it's not today.

I suppose, since several of you are so interested in my holdings (Weird. I couldn't care less what any of you have in your portfolios), that we should decide what percentage equates to "tech heavy". I am on about 22% of my stocks that are considered technology stocks. I don't consider that to be tech heavy. Kind of arbitrary, but I'd say it would have to be ab out 33% of tech stocks to be "tech heavy." Had my stuff been tech heavy in 2023, I would have done closer to what the NASDAQ did at UP 43% instead of being up only about half that.

If any of you want to say that 22% is tech heavy, well, I'll just have to let you have that opinion. I don't think it is, but I have spent way more time on this very uninteresting topic. I don't think of investing as pretty much any of you do. 9 years? That's NOTHING. Being in tech or not? Who cares? Sometimes that's good, other times not. Diversification and always buying until you retire are the only things that matter.

You, sir, are CORRECT!

Nope. Not a single lie in my adult life.

so what do you mean '22% of my stocks are technology stocks?'

Are you running your entire portfolio, including mutual funds through some kind of software like Morningstar? Or using some other kind of methodology?

And are you counting the 'Communications' sector as tech? Because Comms tends to have the same performance as tech. (+53% in 2023 and has stocks like Meta, Netflix Google)

You are wrong. Over the last 30 years the Dow has overperformed the S & P. Remember that.

Read this Flagpole and never again say the Dow underperforms against the S & P.

The Dow lost 9% from 1999 through 2022, while the S&P plunged 28%.

So, you contend that the Dow underperforms against the S & P when the Dow lost 9% from '99 to '2022 and the S & P PLUNGED 28%?!?

cjmltd.com

The S&P 500 is Beating the Dow – Or Is It?

CJM Wealth Advisers

A noticeable feature of the stock market this year has been the big difference in the performance of the two major stock indexes. Through September 14, 2023 the S&P 500 has raced ahead with a gain of 17%, while the Dow Jones...

Open link

1) You realize that 2023 was a GREAT year for stocks, that the NASDAQ went UP 43% and I did only half as well as that, right? My "claimed" 2023 returns are GREAT, but only because the year for stocks was great. I LOST to the S&P 500 and I LOST to NASDAQ, so very mediocre in comparison...though I will gladly take 23% gain any year. Weird that you challenge this. Do you not invest at all? Seems like maybe not, but then it wouldn't make sense for you to follow this thread. You are an enigma.

2) I have only transferred money out funds into other funds (switch funds). I have never taken a gain. That's not selling. ALL money I have ever put in the market has always stayed in the market.

3) Not my problem that you don't understand the difference between a lie and a falsehood. There is no world view issue there. There is a lack of education on your part there.

4) All of what I've told you about my investing is absolutely true. I started investing in 1989. My wife and I invested half our income the first 7 years of our marriage. I have invested uninterrupted and automatically since 1989.

5) My wealth is not unimaginable. It is easily imaginable. If you have a spreadsheet, you can see for yourself. If you invest a sh!t ton of money beginning at age 23 until you are 57 with the way the market has performed since 1989, you would have what I have also. The key is to just have done it. I did it. Most don't.

6) Big biceps? Um...no. HUGE biceps!

7) Incomparable musicianship? Nope. I never said that nor implied that. I AM though a great piano/keyboard player. Sorry, but I am. I have made enough money as a professional musician to pay for my house and then some. I have gigged as much as 5 nights a week for a while there, played in some great music festivals, played with some super great musicians (some famous), done session work. I also play guitar and have done that for money also...but I am just a so-so guitarist.

8) You sound jealous, brother. Don't be that. Pave your own way. Don't envy others.

Um...huh? I'm not even going to read that. The Dow did NOT lose 9% from 1999 to 2022. The S&P 500 did NOT lose 28% from 1999 to 2022. WTF are you talking about?

Dow close end of 1999: 11,497.12

Dow close end of 2022: 33,152.55

Well, I accidentally DID read that nonsense because it popped up with I looked for the 1999 and 2022 year end closings. Here's something it said in there regarding Dow vs S&P 500: "Over those 23 years, the S&P beat the Dow in 16 years"

Try again.

All of my funds are broken out in my spreadsheet with which stocks are in there, and I have a sector column for each one that defines them. Not tech heavy. ~22%. That's it.

I'm thinking more like George Santos tbh.