Flagpole, Sally, Seattle, agip, and igy have been repeating their viewpoints over and over and over again for the past decade or 2.
We get it. Flagpole invests at least 15% in mutual funds. Live below your means. Fall in love with some cheap hatchbacks for your kids. By the way Kia Soul sucks as mine recently got stolen but before that, it was a good car. And in your 50s, you can retire.
Igy thinks market’s going to crash every year. When it doesn’t, it’s because investors are irrational.
Agip likes to report about the market. He usually thinks market will go up.
Sally likes to diversify and thinks the market will go up in the long run. But having said that, he likes to gamble a little so not sure if he actually follows his own advice.
Seattle seems to invest like Agip but also likes to time the market to try to beat it. But in the long run, not sure if that has actually worked or not.
Folks, this basically sums up the thread and will this will continue for another 20 years. Flagpole will be boasting how he is so rich when he is in his 70s .
That's actually a pretty good synopsis. Props to you. Sorry your Soul got stolen, and Hyundai and Kia should never have allowed that issue that made those cars easy to steal, but you are wrong about the Soul. It's a great car. Hatchbacks, crossovers, SUVs are the best cars generally...safe, functional, fun.
Since this is an investing thread though, we all know whose approach has done the best in the last 20 years. I don't even need to say it.
Well, Warren Buffet of course. His approach has not only done the best in the last 20 years but also the last 60 years. He has beaten the Dow 60 of the last 60 years. He makes Flagpole look like a newbie investor.
Agip, thanks very much for putting that all together, and doing so in an accurate and readable way, nonetheless! I have learned a lot from it and I am sure as have others. It's brief and concise.
And as much time as I spend on these things, you would think that I have already have an accurate picture of what you are showing, but I don't. The 3 month read and the ytd reads that you post actually are usually not exactly what I would have thought.
Good stuff, and I look forward to more in the coming year.
finally, props to Igy who has, during the 2 years of this stock market churn, has repeatedly made good trades. Energy, emerging market debt, hussman, etc. There are a lot of ways to invest and buy and hold is only one.
If I selectively reported after the fact, my trades would look good too.
finally, props to Igy who has, during the 2 years of this stock market churn, has repeatedly made good trades. Energy, emerging market debt, hussman, etc. There are a lot of ways to invest and buy and hold is only one.
If I selectively reported after the fact, my trades would look good too.
CORRECT! That's the issue with people who buy and sell individual stocks on a regular basis. Too much dishonesty. Too much denial. Too much focusing on the positive sales and not enough on the losses. It's like the person at the casino who "wins" $1,000. Well, ok, how much did you lose? Too much machoism and a false sense that intellect has anything to do with a good buy or sell. Also, so you bought X at a certain price and then sold it at Y. Did you then buy something else immediately? Most of the time, no. Were you ALWAYS in the market? Meh.
If I selectively reported after the fact, my trades would look good too.
CORRECT! That's the issue with people who buy and sell individual stocks on a regular basis. Too much dishonesty. Too much denial. Too much focusing on the positive sales and not enough on the losses. It's like the person at the casino who "wins" $1,000. Well, ok, how much did you lose? Too much machoism and a false sense that intellect has anything to do with a good buy or sell. Also, so you bought X at a certain price and then sold it at Y. Did you then buy something else immediately? Most of the time, no. Were you ALWAYS in the market? Meh.
Yeah, but it all comes out in the wash, so to speak, when you pull up a YTD performance number, like brokerage accounts make readily available. There's ways to spin most anything, as you are saying, but the YTD performance is what counts when the fat lady sings (can you still say that?). Then, for the real reality test, compare that to SNP 500 over the same timeframe. Then, adjust accordingly. Or not.
finally, props to Igy who has, during the 2 years of this stock market churn, has repeatedly made good trades. Energy, emerging market debt, hussman, etc. There are a lot of ways to invest and buy and hold is only one.
If I selectively reported after the fact, my trades would look good too.
yeah nah Igy has told us his trades before they were winners. Maybe not every time but mostly.
Post below was from 8/22/2022. EMD and FAX are my largest positions, up 25% and 23% respectively. At my cost basis the current yield is over 14%. I am taking income now, but would add to positions on significant pullback on discount to NAV. Hedging with TECS and SOXS down 13%. Smaller position in HSGFX and money market. I have been about as transparent as anyone posting here.
This post was edited 4 minutes after it was posted.
dude be sure you have correct information. I'm pretty sure you are spreading misinformation, which on an investment thread, no one should want.
Per Morningstar, EMD's record since 2003 is +5.1% per year. Not bad at all for a bond fund.
I suspect you are unaware that the fund pays a huge dividend - you are probably going on just NAV and not counting dividends. Which is foolish to do.
And anyway, Igy has a profit on EMD, I believe. It's all in when you buy things and when you sell them. Igy's had a very hot hand all year. He even predicted this move up to 4200 on the SP500.
Thanks agip. I am up ~11% of FAX and ~12% on EMD. I do expect to lose those gains in any market reversal. According to Morningstar as of 8/11 EMD outperformed QQQ 13.11% to 12.12%, and outperformed SPY over that period by ~3%. This is the latest data I could find and does not include today’s big rally.
The economy was ramping up toward a turbocharged 4.9% growth rate when he wrote this.
Henrik Zeberg @HenrikZeberg Let me be clear: There is NO DOUBT that a #Recession will hit the Economy later in 2023. No - it is not here already. But it will come and it will be devastating! For now Fed will play the game - and may hint Pause in minutes coming out today - or not!
This bear thoughtfully collected wall street forecasts for end of 2023 for us. He sneers at them and said we'd hit SPX2000. Truth is every single one of the forecasts was too pessimistic. Except maybe one.
Here's the most accurate guy on the previous list explaining why 2023 would continue to rally from the spring onwards. All correct!
Fundstrat's Tom Lee
These are the 6 reasons why $SPX already bottomed in this bear market cycle and is poised to continue to rally towards 2023 year-end S&P 500 price target of 4,750.$SPX$QQQ$DIApic.twitter.com/oAzOKxhkfH
The economy was ramping up toward a turbocharged 4.9% growth rate when he wrote this.
Henrik Zeberg @HenrikZeberg Let me be clear: There is NO DOUBT that a #Recession will hit the Economy later in 2023. No - it is not here already. But it will come and it will be devastating! For now Fed will play the game - and may hint Pause in minutes coming out today - or not!
1:21 AM · Apr 12, 2023 · 91K Views
Here he is saying all of his predictions came true for 2023.
"Dear all. 2023 has been a fantastic year! I can say that most of my predictions for the Economy and Market came to fruition this year. My positons across all assets are up by ~179%."
Dear all.
2023 has been a fantastic year! I can say that most of my predictions for the Economy and Market came to fruition this year. My positons across all assets are up by ~179% 🚀🚀🚀
A little later today, our Christmas Video 🎄🎁will be send to our subscribers.
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